Vasilevskiy -- Dobber Goalie Keeper Ranking

[Axeman33]

he's inconsistent and overall unproven. Goes on hot tears that he follows up with absolute stinker stretches. Most the goalies in front of him are proven, I do not agree with Griess and Mrazek but I am sure Dobber has legit reasoning for his placement.

Hellebuyck is just as inconsistent and unproven, and to be honest, on a worse team.

[LuigiC173]

Hellebuyck is just as inconsistent and unproven, and to be honest, on a worse team.

I agree with you on both points definitely, my guess is he was put ahead of Vas solely because of the fact he had a few more starts and more wins on the season.

[Dobber]

Vas has been overrated for three years now. Haven't seen a thing yet, though this year could be the year. I remember getting called out on him back in 2015! And for what? His 23 win seasons that he's had ever since? LOL
I'll move him up though, he'll be higher for the next ranking. He deserves it, I agree I'm hard on him.

Greiss - Tier 1 should have been moved down to Tier 2 after Halak's strong finish. That was a mistake.

Edit - yeah, I just made some tweaks that I should have made back in March's edition. It puts Vas at 14 and Greiss at 19, so look for them around there next time. Vas had not been adjusted based on next season's expectations.

[BreadManPanarin]

Edit - yeah, I just made some tweaks that I should have made back in March's edition. It puts Vas at 14 and Greiss at 19, so look for them around there next time. Vas had not been adjusted based on next season's expectations.

Those adjusted ranks seem very reasonable. Much more in line with the expectations that I had when I originally clicked on the updated rankings. Vas at 24 seemed way too low, but I would be hard pressed to argue that he should be any higher than 14 at this point.

[The Bottlenecker]

I don't think he should go much higher on the list, but should certainly be higher (in my opinion) than Hellebuyck and Mrazek.
The rankings can certainly change quickly, and I'm sure once he starts putting up consistent numbers, he will move from the 20s to the 10s very fast.

[BreadManPanarin]

I don't think he should go much higher on the list, but should certainly be higher (in my opinion) than Hellebuyck and Mrazek.
The rankings can certainly change quickly, and I'm sure once he starts putting up consistent numbers, he will move from the 20s to the 10s very fast.

I wouldn't be surprised at all if he was top 5 by the end of next season. Far from guaranteed, but if he can take the next step and put up <2.5 GAA and .920+ save% in his first season as a workhorse then he should end up right in the same convo as Talbot, Dubnyk, Murray and Jones. Would still be a step behind Holtby and Price though.

This may be the last chance to acquire him at anything resembling a reasonable price.

[Haka]

I ironically have all three goalies being discussed in this thread - Vasil, Helly, and MAF.

What's the best case (within the realms of possibility) for all three next year? What's the best spot for MAF to land for next year? I was hoping Dallas would snag him before they snagged Bishop.

[BreadManPanarin]

I ironically have all three goalies being discussed in this thread - Vasil, Helly, and MAF.

What's the best case (within the realms of possibility) for all three next year? What's the best spot for MAF to land for next year? I was hoping Dallas would snag him before they snagged Bishop.

Honestly I think Vasi has the highest ceiling this year (40+ wins, .920+ save%, <2.5 GAA), and also a fairly high floor (30+ wins, .915+ save%, <2.8 GAA)

Hellebuyck's ceiling is probably close to Vasi's (35+ wins, .920+ save%, <2.6 GAA), but his floor is losing the starting job to an offseason acquisition or whoever is the backup.

MAF I think has a lower ceiling than both if he is on Vegas, but a higher floor than Hellebuyck - probably similar to Vasi's floor except maybe with less wins.

This is all just my personal opinion. I could be totally wrong.

[spacecowboy]

I have the exact same reactions when I see the Dobber goalie ranking. Vasi should be ranked at around 15th.

Is he unproven? Sure
Is he inconsistent? Yeah, but so are other goalies.

Bottom line is that he has all the tools in the world to succeed and he’s still young. Pair that up with a great situation in Tampa and I want Vasi in a keeper league wayyyy more than half the guys who are ranked ahead of him. Those rankings are for a keeper league and I, along with most people here, would much rather swing for the fences on a goalie prospect like Vas than to take an average 30 year old who has zero chances at becoming a star.

[BreadManPanarin]

Bottom line is that he has all the tools in the world to succeed and he’s still young. Pair that up with a great situation in Tampa and I want Vasi in a keeper league wayyyy more than half the guys who are ranked ahead of him. Those rankings are for a keeper league and I, along with most people here, would much rather swing for the fences on a goalie prospect like Vas than to take an average 30 year old who has zero chances at becoming a star.

I agree completely.

Career Save% .915
Career Postseason Save% .920
2017 Save% .917 (in a very traumatic/disappointing season for the Lightning in which Ben Bishop had a .910 save%)
22 years old
Maybe the most athletic/flexible goaltender in the league

What's not to like?

[spacecowboy]

I agree completely.

Career Save% .915
Career Postseason Save% .920
2017 Save% .917 (in a very traumatic/disappointing season for the Lightning in which Ben Bishop had a .910 save%)
22 years old
Maybe the most athletic/flexible goaltender in the league

What's not to like?

Did this thread influence the powers that be to give Vasi an 8 position jump (from 24th to 16th) in the June Goalie Rankings compared to May? :P (j/k)

In all seriousness, good job on Dobber cause I think 16th is MUCH more reflective of his true keeper league fantasy value.

I believe in Vasi as a future NHL all-star down the road. He's gonna crack Dobber's top 10 in 2017-2018 in my opinion. The kid's a stud.

[BreadManPanarin]

Did this thread influence the powers that be to give Vasi an 8 position jump (from 24th to 16th) in the June Goalie Rankings compared to May? :P (j/k)

Haha! Actually Dobber had said Vasi would likely jump up to 14 this month, so 16 is a disappointment. At least he is Tier 1 now! So by Dobber's reckoning he is equal in value to Talbot, Dubnyk, Rask, Bob, etc. I won't complain about that.

I agree with you that he will force himself into the top 10 sooner rather than later.

[Pengwin7]

One caveat on Vas...
Some young goalies stumble when they are thrust into the default #1 goalie spot.
There's little pressure when you are the back-up.
There's a LOT of pressure when you are the annointed starter (& team saviour).
I speculated that Steve Mason was really never as bad as his final years in CBJ - the pressure just ate him alive.
And once he got back to a "no-pressure" situation (PHI - following the massive Bryz expectations), life was just fine.

Mrazek, this year. Another example.
He's fine in the year he steals the #1 gig from Howard.
Then he goes into this past year as the #1... Detroit on a roll of 24 or 25 straight playoffs... and falls on his face.

Same could happen to Vas.
Just buyer beware - I don't think we really know a goalie until he goes a full season as the bona fide team #1.

Also - beyond Hedman... the TB defense isn't all that great.
They are a bit raw. Stralman has shown signs of slowing a bit.
Coburn isn't mobile enough (IMO) for the smaller, faster NHL.
And the kids rising enough may be good eventually, but aren't terrific. (though losing Garrison won't hurt too much)


All that said, I DO like Vas... think he'll be right there at .917sv%... 2.40gaa... 33-37w, per season.
I think TB is strong enough to be a top 8 Eastern team for a while and I just don't see Yzerman/Cooper overworking their goalies with 65+ starts. (which is needed to get 40w)

[Referee3083]

One caveat on Vas...
Some young goalies stumble when they are thrust into the default #1 goalie spot.
There's little pressure when you are the back-up.
There's a LOT of pressure when you are the annointed starter (& team saviour).

You could also argue the opposite is true (as we've seen from some established #1 guys who do better when they don't have the pressure of a #1b who can easily steal the starting gig). Looking back at last season, when Bishop went down early in the year, Vasi was the appointed starter for what was going to be some time, and he struggled. In contrast, when Bishop was traded to LA, Vasi was again appointed starter and performed much stronger. Maybe he's a guy who thrives a bit more when he isn't competing for his job, but just focusing on how to be a better goalie.

[Pengwin7]

You could also argue the opposite is true (as we've seen from some established #1 guys who do better when they don't have the pressure of a #1b who can easily steal the starting gig). Looking back at last season, when Bishop went down early in the year, Vasi was the appointed starter for what was going to be some time, and he struggled. In contrast, when Bishop was traded to LA, Vasi was again appointed starter and performed much stronger. Maybe he's a guy who thrives a bit more when he isn't competing for his job, but just focusing on how to be a better goalie.

Valid point to argue.
Goalies are weird creatures - as we all are.

When I played high school soccer... I had this one mid-fielder buddy who said "I play better when I get criticized... makes me want to do better."
And I'm thinking "I play worse when I get criticized... makes me overthink what I'm doing out there."

Two sides to the coin.