Offseason sanity check, pre-guide, pre-prospects report.

[fantasyhockeygeek]

Time for an offseason strategic team assessment!


12-team, fantasy points H2H. Keep 15 + 10 farm, roster is 3C, 3LW, 3RW, 6D, 2G, 6BN. I won the regular season last year, then lost in the H2H final to a ridiculously hot team.


Scoring is a little convoluted:


P: 1
Defense P: 1.15
+/-: 0.32
PIM: 0.08
Hits: 0.08
PPP: 0.4
SHP: 0.6
Blocks: 0.2
SOG: 0.015 (pretty much nothing)
W: 2
SV: 0.08
GA: -0.64
SO: 3


To make that easier on your brains, I've summarized each player's 2017 numbers. Generally, you can find waiver-level skaters at about ~0.9-1 FP/GP, and over short hot streaks considerably more than that. If you do the math, goalies are crucial, as are peripheral stats like PIM, hits, blocks. My team is below.


C
Backstrom - 121.11 FP in 82 GP (1.48/GP)
Getzlaf - 116.55 FP in 74 GP (1.57 FP/GP)
Bergeon - 85.61 FP in 79 GP (1.08 FP/GP)


LW
Marchand - 124.31 FP in 80 GP (1.55 FP/GP)
Lee - 88.38 FP in 81 GP (1.09 FP/GP)
Perreault (C/LW) - 64.85 FP in 65 GP (1.00 FP/GP)


RW
Radulov (RW/LW) - 85.06 FP in 76 GP (1.12 FP/GP)
Granlund (RW/C/LW) - 104.38 FP in 81 GP (1.29 FP/GP)
Steen (RW/LW) - 79.2 FP in 76 GP (1.04 FP/GP)
Lindholm (RW/C) - 71.83 FP in 72 GP (1.00 FP/GP)
Ryan - 45.55 FP in 62 GP (0.73 FP/GP)


D
Boychuk - 76.01 FP in 66 GP (1.15 FP/GP)
Carlson - 85.33 FP in 72 GP (1.19 FP/GP)
Markov - 73.03 FP in 62 GP (1.18 FP/GP)
Brodie - 70.77 FP in 82 GP (0.86 FP/GP)
Cole - 97.63 FP in 81 GP (1.21 FP/GP)
Klingberg - 95.13 GP in 80 GP (1.19 FP/GP)


G
Bobrovsky - 163.88 FP in 63 GP (2.6 FP/GP)
Jones - 109.36 FP in 65 GP (1.68 FP/GP)
Smith - 87.4 FP in 55 GP (1.59 FP/GP)
Howard - 42.52 FP in 26 GP (1.64 FP/GP)


Farm
Eichel - 77.02 FP in 61 GP (1.26 FP/GP)
Ghostisbehere - 75.1 FP in 76 GP (0.99 FP/GP)
Zaitsev - 85.67 FP in 82 GP (1.04 FP/GP)
Keller (C/LW)
Gusev (LW)
Tuch (RW)
Fox (D)
Dell (G) - 41.8 FP in 20 GP (2.09 FP/GP)
Domingue (G) - 34.8 FP in 31 GP (1.12 FP/GP)
Nilsson (G) - 47.24 FP in 26 GP (1.82 FP/GP)


Farm players have a max eligibility of 200 GP for skaters and 100 GP for goalies. You can send a player back to the farm in the offseason, so it's like a free keep. You can also call up farm players to mitigate injuries, hence the backups.

My draft picks (order TBD) are:

Pro: 2nd, 3rd, 3rd, 4th
Prospect: 1st (top-5), 2nd, 2nd, 2nd, 3rd


Who would you keep and why? Any candidates to sell, and if so what to target?

[Moses]

I have to chew on this and I can't swallow it all right now. Lots of info here. I'll have a hard look through this and let you know my thoughts. God knows you've given me enough good advice!

[hockeymanG23]

Looks like you need to drop 6 right? I'd let Perreault, Ryan, Markov, Brodie, Howard, and Smith go.

[FinnishFlash]

Looks like you need to drop 6 right? I'd let Perreault, Ryan, Markov, Brodie, Howard, and Smith go.

I'd have no problem letting any of those guys go. I assume the Ryan is Bobby, with his playoffs I'd float his name out there to see if anyone buys into a resurgence.

Other names on the team that I'd consider shopping would be Marchand and Granlund. I think we seen both of their upsides this year, I'm not convinced they repeat. If you can sell at their current value I think you will net a profit, but it depends on how the other GMs value them.

The picks are a bit tricky without knowing exactly where they are yet. That top 5 pick, assuming it's not top 2, I'd be targeting Vilardi or Middlestadt.

[Eskimo Brother]

Radulov I think is a bit of a sell high. Otherwise I agree with the names listed above.
Steen is starting to tail off hard as well. Plus injuries.

[Mr. Guru]

Im assuming in a 12 team, 6D league, that defenders are hard to come by.
Ditto for goalies.


Id probably drop.

Lee
Pereault
Ryan
Markov
Boychuk
Cole


Letting go of 3 defenders hurts....but you have Ghost and Zaitsev to replace them with.

Or could drop one of Howard/Smith if the blow on defence is too big.

Id be looking to cash in on:

Marchand - Doubt he replicates this year.
Getzlaf - I think someone would overpay because of his dominant playoffs


Studly looking team.


The only thing it's missing is one more elite star winger up top. Like a Kane or a Tarasenko. Maybe even Ovechkin if you can get him cheap enough.

I would try to package Lindholm in a deal to land you a bigger fish. Lindholm is still young enough that he has value. I wonder what Lindholm and Keller could net you in this league?

I would also try to target a young goalie prospect. You do have the tandems but it's a temp fix for now. Someone like Shesterkin or Parsons. And just stash em on the farm.

Your D looks good. Drafting depth D shouldn't be too hard.

[Ianclark5525]

Brodie
Ryan
perrault
markov
boychuck
cole

would be my list. Dropping 4 d hurts but you got ghost and zaitsev coming up from the farm

[fantasyhockeygeek]

Thanks for the good, varied thoughts. They help a great deal.

Keep 'em coming!

[lucafen4]

Time for an offseason strategic team assessment!


12-team, fantasy points H2H. Keep 15 + 10 farm, roster is 3C, 3LW, 3RW, 6D, 2G, 6BN. I won the regular season last year, then lost in the H2H final to a ridiculously hot team.


Scoring is a little convoluted:


P: 1
Defense P: 1.15
+/-: 0.32
PIM: 0.08
Hits: 0.08
PPP: 0.4
SHP: 0.6
Blocks: 0.2
SOG: 0.015 (pretty much nothing)
W: 2
SV: 0.08
GA: -0.64
SO: 3


To make that easier on your brains, I've summarized each player's 2017 numbers. Generally, you can find waiver-level skaters at about ~0.9-1 FP/GP, and over short hot streaks considerably more than that. If you do the math, goalies are crucial, as are peripheral stats like PIM, hits, blocks. My team is below.


C
Backstrom - 121.11 FP in 82 GP (1.48/GP)
Getzlaf - 116.55 FP in 74 GP (1.57 FP/GP)
Bergeon - 85.61 FP in 79 GP (1.08 FP/GP)


LW
Marchand - 124.31 FP in 80 GP (1.55 FP/GP)



RW
Radulov (RW/LW) - 85.06 FP in 76 GP (1.12 FP/GP)
Granlund (RW/C/LW) - 104.38 FP in 81 GP (1.29 FP/GP)
Steen (RW/LW) - 79.2 FP in 76 GP (1.04 FP/GP)
Lindholm (RW/C) - 71.83 FP in 72 GP (1.00 FP/GP)



D
Boychuk - 76.01 FP in 66 GP (1.15 FP/GP)
Carlson - 85.33 FP in 72 GP (1.19 FP/GP)
Cole - 97.63 FP in 81 GP (1.21 FP/GP)
Klingberg - 95.13 GP in 80 GP (1.19 FP/GP)


G
Bobrovsky - 163.88 FP in 63 GP (2.6 FP/GP)
Jones - 109.36 FP in 65 GP (1.68 FP/GP)
Smith - 87.4 FP in 55 GP (1.59 FP/GP)


Farm
Eichel - 77.02 FP in 61 GP (1.26 FP/GP)
Ghostisbehere - 75.1 FP in 76 GP (0.99 FP/GP)
Zaitsev - 85.67 FP in 82 GP (1.04 FP/GP)
Keller (C/LW)
Gusev (LW)
Tuch (RW)
Fox (D)
Dell (G) - 41.8 FP in 20 GP (2.09 FP/GP)
Domingue (G) - 34.8 FP in 31 GP (1.12 FP/GP)
Nilsson (G) - 47.24 FP in 26 GP (1.82 FP/GP)


Farm players have a max eligibility of 200 GP for skaters and 100 GP for goalies. You can send a player back to the farm in the offseason, so it's like a free keep. You can also call up farm players to mitigate injuries, hence the backups.

My draft picks (order TBD) are:

Pro: 2nd, 3rd, 3rd, 4th
Prospect: 1st (top-5), 2nd, 2nd, 2nd, 3rd


Who would you keep and why? Any candidates to sell, and if so what to target?

I flip flopped between Lee and Bergeron, decided to keep Berg. I'd rather take the guy who had the down year and still matched theplayer that had a career year rather than visa-versa (speaking Fpt/gm). LW is easier to draft than RW so I stayedheavy on RW.Also kept 4 D – Boychuk willbe better and Mike Smith – based on your valuation of goalies and myexpectation that Arizona is going to bemuch more of their final quarter selves than first half selves this comingseason, his stats will improve.Cole at1.21 pt/gm doing what he does, I kept him as he’s a nice stable producer itwould seem.

Flipping Bergeron for Lee or Steen for Lee I’d also hum andhaw over a bit… depends on preference really for line up balance. I dropped Markov. He’s eventually going todrop off, isn’t he?

[fantasyhockeygeek]

My view here is that the option value of goalies is WAY higher than that of skaters, so I always gamble on them finding a starting spot. Prospects are a crapshoot, but a goalie that finds himself in a starting or semi-starting gig all of a sudden can be producing 3-8 FPts a week. That's a big swing. But I'm a goalie hoarder... I know it.

To summarize what others have said:

Unanimous: the farm, Backstrom, Getzlaf, Bergeron, Marchand, Radulov, Granlund, Steen, Lindholm, Carlson, Klingberg, Bobs, Jones. (12 pro, 10 farm)
Up for discussion: Lee, Brodie, Cole, Boychuk, Howard, Smith (3 of these survive)
For sure drop: Perreault, Ryan, Markov.

[Moses]

Make a four for one deal. Yup 4-1.

Smith - 87.4 FP in 55 GP (1.59 FP/GP)
Howard - 42.52 FP in 26 GP (1.64 FP/GP)
Dell (G) - 41.8 FP in 20 GP (2.09 FP/GP)
Ghostisbehere - 75.1 FP in 76 GP (0.99 FP/GP)

--for--

A goalie better than Smith, Howard and Dell.


I know you value goaltending. Your skaters are in excellent shape. Run with three power-horse goalies. Add someone to Bobrovsky and Jones. You can fill in the depth goalie slots over the next period of time. Dangle 'The Ghost'. Name value. Capitalize. You already have, or will find, a replacement defenceman.

[fantasyhockeygeek]

Bumperoooooooo!

Now that the expansion draft and the first wave of offseason shakeup has happened, does anyone have any different ideas?

Mike Smith's value has gone through the roof between his landing in Calgary and them trading for Hamonic. I'd be nuts not to keep him now, I think.

Mrazek being exposed in expansion and the rumours about his crap attitude having him in Detroit's bad books have made me think some more about Howard.

On the farm, Domingue is now not worth keeping (no sense carrying insurance that doesn't apply to your primary asset).

Any other thoughts? Anyone care to opine?

[Mr. Guru]

Id probably drop.

Lee
Pereault
Ryan
Markov
Boychuk
Cole

I wouldn't change my drops from my earlier post.