Would you guys hedge this bet TONIGHT?

[Atomic Wedgy]

Back on April 12th before the playoffs started I picked Ottawa to win the East at +1200.

Now here we are one win away from the Ottawa doing just that and against the 3 teams I was hoping they would face when I placed the bet.

Here is my issue. Nobody knows who will win. Do I think Ottawa will tonight? I can't say that with any certainty either. With Pittsburgh being the favoured team tonight at -195, is it even worth it for me to put up $780 to try and win $400 if Pittsburgh wins ($300 actually as I lose my original $100 on my Sens bet). If I do this and the Sens do indeed win, my payout would drop from $1200 to $420.

Do I hedge my bet and guarantee myself $300 (Pens win) or $420 (Sens win) or do I let my bet ride and hope my Sens do what I thought they could and see if I can win $1200?

I don't want to know who you guys think will win tonight, I want to know if you guys are gamblers or would take the guaranteed money?

If you hedge, can you still lose the PIT bet if they end tied after regulation?

[rataylor22]

^^ That is what you were saying above isn't it. Same thing, yes?

As i understand it yea.

[Mr. Guru]

A guaranteed $300 is beautiful IMO.

[notch4077]

If you bet $195 and Pittsburgh wins you make $100, correct?

You originally bet $100 on Ottawa to win $1200, correct?

If the two statements above are true then....

A.] If you bet on Pittsburgh and Ottawa wins you spent $295 to make $1200 (up $905)
B.] If you bet on Pittsburgh and Pittsburgh wins you spent $295 to make $295 (even)
C.] If you don't bet on Pittsburgh and Pittsburgh wins you don't win anything (down $100)
D.] If you don't bet on Pittsburgh and Ottawa wins you win your original bet (up $1100 -- or is it $1200, I'm not sure, anyways...)


Looks to me that if you do option B you come away at minimum even and at best up $905. You are insuring your real money at 3:1 with house money. (I think - but I am the furthest thing from a pro sports gambler)

Thank you everybody. Interesting to see how you guys would play this.

I have made my decision. I am not hedging. I lost the $100 almost 2 months ago when I bet the Sens to win the East and I believe they can tonight. The series has been closer than I expected, but tonight, there are too many Senators players that won't let what they've played their entire lives for slip away...and that is the right to play for the Stanley's Cup.

[BreadManPanarin]

Good luck bro. Unfortunately I think Sens are going down....

[GinFizz]

good choice. its called gambling for a reason.

[Dareo]

If you bet $195 and Pittsburgh wins you make $100, correct?

You originally bet $100 on Ottawa to win $1200, correct?

If the two statements above are true then....

A.] If you bet on Pittsburgh and Ottawa wins you spent $295 to make $1200 (up $905)
B.] If you bet on Pittsburgh and Pittsburgh wins you spent $295 to make $100 (-$195)
C.] If you don't bet on Pittsburgh and Pittsburgh wins you don't win anything (down $100)
D.] If you don't bet on Pittsburgh and Ottawa wins you win your original bet (up $1100 -- or is it $1200, I'm not sure, anyways...)


Looks to me that if you do option B you come away at minimum even and at best up $905. You are insuring your real money at 3:1 with house money. (I think - but I am the furthest thing from a pro sports gambler)

Option B is now correct

Any bet on Pittsburgh to win tonite will either increase your loss (if Pitt wins) or decrease your payout (if Ott wins). Stand pat.

[audiopile]

Option B is now correct

Any bet on Pittsburgh to win tonite will either increase your loss (if Pitt wins) or decrease your payout (if Ott wins). Stand pat.

I don't think that is how gambling works, no one would bet on Pitts tonight and that is bad for business.

He bets $195 and if he wins the payout is $295, or $100 net.

[Daydream Nation]

I hedge and guarantee myself the $400.

Then I enjoy the game without being nervous about the outcome. You can tell I don't gamble.

[BreadManPanarin]

good choice. its called gambling for a reason.

Beg pardon, but I don't believe we will know if it was a good choice or not until the games ends.

[Moses]

Option B is now correct

Any bet on Pittsburgh to win tonite will either increase your loss (if Pitt wins) or decrease your payout (if Ott wins). Stand pat.

/scratches head/ say what?

[hockeyrobot]

Smart move. Go with your gut and your betting strategy.

Good luck man

[Kofax]

Smart move. Go with your gut and your betting strategy.

Good luck man

Almost.

[Mr. Guru]

The difference between gambling and profiting.

[hockeymanG23]

If you went with your heart, Respect.

If you hedged your bet, well I respect that too!

Either way, it should be a bet you can live with, right?