Mid-May Vegas Mock

[Eskimo Brother]

We are basically a month away from the expansion draft now so I thought I would gather my thoughts on it and go through a full mock draft.

Some teams have to make moves before, both to prepare to lose less, as well as making sure they leave unprotected enough eligible players. Based on my picks, teams needing to sign another skater or two to be compliant will be marked with an asterix (*).

In addition, I consummated a couple of transactions to make certain things play out a little more like they probably will. They are:
-Fleury to Calgary for an unknown return that does not include players needing expansion protection.
-Zucker and Dumba to NJ for an unknown return that does not include players needing expansion protection.
-Bieksa waives NMC (therefore Anaheim goes 7F & 3D).

Without further ado:

Ana - J. Manson, RD, 825K
Arz* - R. Vrbata, RW, UFA (Estimate 4M contract)
Bos - K. Miller, RD, 2.5M
Buf - T. Ennis, LW, 4,5M
Cgy - M. Stone, RD, UFA (Estimated 4.5M contract)
Car* - J. Nordstrom, C, 1.275M
Chi* - T. van Riemsdyk, RD, 825K
Col* - M. Barberio, LD, 750K
Clb - J. Korpisalo, G, RFA (Estimated 1.5M contract)
Dal - D. Hamhuis, LD, 3.75M
Det - R. Sheahan, C, 2.08M
Edm* - L. Brossoit, G, 750K
Fla - C. Sceviour, RW, 950K
LA - B. McNabb, LD, 1.7M
Min - M. Hanzal, C, UFA (Estimated 4M contract)
Mon - N. Beaulieu, LD, RFA (Estimated 3.5M contract)
Nsh - C. Jarnkrok, C, 2M
NJ - D. Smith-Pelley, RW, 1.3M
NYI - B. Nelson, C, 2.5M
NYR - A. Raanta, G, 1M
Ott - C. Wideman, RD, 800K
Phi - J. Weal, LW, UFA (Estimated 1.5M contract)
Pit - S. Wilson, RW, 625K
SJ* - B. Dillon, LD, 3.27M
Stl - P. Berglund, C, 3.85M
TB - A. Killorn, LW, 4.45
Tor - B. Leipsic, LW, RFA (Estimated 1M contract)
Van - M. Granlund, C, 900K
Wsh - K. Alzner, LD, UFA (Estimated 5M contract)
Wpg - M. Perreault, LW, 4.125M

Totals:
Roster 30/30 (Constraints: F 16/14, D 11/9, G 3/3)
Team:
C 7/30
LW 5/30
RW 4/30
LD 6/30
RD 5/30
G 3/30

2017-2018 contracts: 22/30 (above minimum 20)
2017-2018 current cap hit: 44,820,000 (min: 43.8M / max:73M)
2017-2018 estimated cap hit: 69,820,000

Happy to go through certain teams if you disagree or feel I missed something, didn't want to type them all out here though.

Tear it apart as you please

[PenguinHunter]

Thanks for sharing this!

I am hoping that Philly will lose someone other than Weal and that they can resign him... but I would not blame Vegas for taking him.

[Eskimo Brother]

Thanks for sharing this!

I am hoping that Philly will lose someone other than Weal and that they can resign him... but I would not blame Vegas for taking him.

Raffl, MDZ and Stolarz are the other options for Vegas IMO. Weal just makes the most sense on many levels.

[Bass56]

Thanks for sharing your list EB! No matter how you cut it though, this team looks horrible from the get-go! I think their D will be decent and maybe they will have a good goalie platoon, but their offense is by far projected to be the worst in the league, regardless of who they sign/trade for!

PS: I see you have Nelson for the Isles...do you think they protect an extra D and go 4-4?

[Rodgort]

My only Question is do UFA's even count? If the Caps let Alzner go why wouldn't Vegas sign him and snag someone else. I do not know the rule on that as I swear they had to be under contract for the next year

[Eskimo Brother]

Thanks for sharing your list EB! No matter how you cut it though, this team looks horrible from the get-go! I think their D will be decent and maybe they will have a good goalie platoon, but their offense is by far projected to be the worst in the league, regardless of who they sign/trade for!

PS: I see you have Nelson for the Isles...do you think they protect an extra D and go 4-4?

The offence is definitely a tough one to figure out what they're going to do. Do they try to trade for a goal scorer or two? Do they play a trap style and try to win 1-0? Do they become a junior team and try to win 8-7 in games of odd man rushes? No matter what it is, they aren't getting 220+ goals just from the basic expansion draft as it is now.

I actually had the Isles protecting 3 forwards and 5 defence, strange as it may be. So the big 5 Dmen are kept, and Nelson is left open. It also leaves the option of Hamonic being traded for a F, thus making it a more normal 4 & 4.

[Eskimo Brother]

My only Question is do UFA's even count? If the Caps let Alzner go why wouldn't Vegas sign him and snag someone else. I do not know the rule on that as I swear they had to be under contract for the next year

Vegas can sign UFAs from a team in the two days before the expansion draft. Anyone signed to such a contract then automatically counts as that team's loss in the expansion draft. If Vegas picks Alzner without him signing, then they retain his negotiating rights until July 1st, and could trade them if there is no deal to be reached, like any normal FA. Vegas could for example pluck Brett Connolly from WSH and then once July 1st rolls around, sign Karl Alzner. Lots of logistics for them to try and manage here.

[STONE.]

Ana - J. Manson, RD, 825K
Arz* - R. Vrbata, RW, UFA (Estimate 4M contract)
Bos - K. Miller, RD, 2.5M
Buf - T. Ennis, LW, 4,5M
Cgy - M. Stone, RD, UFA (Estimated 4.5M contract)
Car* - J. Nordstrom, C, 1.275M
Chi* - T. van Riemsdyk, RD, 825K
Col* - M. Barberio, LD, 750K
Clb - J. Korpisalo, G, RFA (Estimated 1.5M contract)
Dal - D. Hamhuis, LD, 3.75M
Det - R. Sheahan, C, 2.08M
Edm* - L. Brossoit, G, 750K
Fla - C. Sceviour, RW, 950K
LA - B. McNabb, LD, 1.7M
Min - M. Hanzal, C, UFA (Estimated 4M contract)
Mon - N. Beaulieu, LD, RFA (Estimated 3.5M contract)
Nsh - C. Jarnkrok, C, 2M
NJ - D. Smith-Pelley, RW, 1.3M
NYI - B. Nelson, C, 2.5M
NYR - A. Raanta, G, 1M
Ott - C. Wideman, RD, 800K
Phi - J. Weal, LW, UFA (Estimated 1.5M contract)
Pit - S. Wilson, RW, 625K
SJ* - B. Dillon, LD, 3.27M
Stl - P. Berglund, C, 3.85M
TB - A. Killorn, LW, 4.45
Tor - B. Leipsic, LW, RFA (Estimated 1M contract)
Van - M. Granlund, C, 900K
Wsh - K. Alzner, LD, UFA (Estimated 5M contract)
Wpg - M. Perreault, LW, 4.125M

For my own benefit, I put yours into positions (not thinking too hard about C/W or ranking):

Vrbata - Hanzal - Ennis
Killorn - Granlund - Smith-Pelley
Perreault - Jarnkrok - Wilson
Sceviour - Berglund - Weal
Nordstrom - Sheahan - Nelson
Leipsic

Alzner - Beaulieu
Stone - TVR
Barberio - Hamhuis
Mason - Miller
McNabb - Wideman
Dillon

Raanta - Broissoit - Korpisolo

It's not great, but there are a lot of pieces that would be great deadline deal chips.

They have Shipachyov also, and they'll sign a player or two this summer.

I have a feeling they will outpoint Colorado's total this year.

[Eskimo Brother]

For my own benefit, I put yours into positions (not thinking too hard about C/W or ranking):

Vrbata - Hanzal - Ennis
Killorn - Granlund - Smith-Pelley
Perreault - Jarnkrok - Wilson
Sceviour - Berglund - Weal
Nordstrom - Sheahan - Nelson
Leipsic

Alzner - Beaulieu
Stone - TVR
Barberio - Hamhuis
Mason - Miller
McNabb - Wideman
Dillon

Raanta - Broissoit - Korpisolo

It's not great, but there are a lot of pieces that would be great deadline deal chips.

They have Shipachyov also, and they'll sign a player or two this summer.

I have a feeling they will outpoint Colorado's total this year.

I can definitely agree that they should outpoint Colorado from this past season, but not by a large margin. It's a team with 4 third lines and a bunch of second D pairs.

Shipachyov certainly helps.

[Mr. Guru]

We have a few of the same guys when I did this mock in mid December.

McNabb, Jarnkrok, Granlund, Sceviour, Sheahan........

Still impossible to guess on some teams.

Nashville, Anaheim, Minny.....what do they do?

[Eskimo Brother]

We have a few of the same guys when I did this mock in mid December.

McNabb, Jarnkrok, Granlund, Sceviour, Sheahan........

Still impossible to guess on some teams.

Nashville, Anaheim, Minny.....what do they do?

Nashville celebrates how far they get this summer and live with losing a young F.
Anaheim begs Bieksa to waive his NMC, and if he doesn't then they panic.
Minny either makes a trade so they lose Haula/Hanzal or someone less of a big deal, or they say screw it, and trade for a whole bunch more talent (Vatanen, Neal, Raanta, Hartman, etc) and don't care that they lose one. I would absolutely love to see a team do that.

[2014olympicgold]

For my own benefit, I put yours into positions (not thinking too hard about C/W or ranking):

Vrbata - Hanzal - Ennis
Killorn - Granlund - Smith-Pelley
Perreault - Jarnkrok - Wilson
Sceviour - Berglund - Weal
Nordstrom - Sheahan - Nelson
Leipsic

Alzner - Beaulieu
Stone - TVR
Barberio - Hamhuis
Mason - Miller
McNabb - Wideman
Dillon

Raanta - Broissoit - Korpisolo

It's not great, but there are a lot of pieces that would be great deadline deal chips.

They have Shipachyov also, and they'll sign a player or two this summer.

I have a feeling they will outpoint Colorado's total this year.

I would put Berglund over the non good Granlund, but it's a drop in the ocean, it won't win them the cup if Granlund is 2C, or if Berglund is 2C

[Pengwin7]

Pretty solid mock.
I like the skaters.

I just can't see Vegas passing on Anton Forsberg (CBJ) and Philip Grubauer (WAS).
Forsberg is better than Korpi (IMO) and Raanta only has 1yr before he becomes UFA.
I just don't see enough value in those two.

Bieksa will be a really interesting one.
I think its easy to suggest teams will work around a guy - and in many cases they will -
Guys like Bieksa, I don't know, I believe he's got family/kids rooted in Anaheim area:
https://twitter.com/kbieksa3/status/...795712/photo/1

[Moses]

@EB - I think Vegas is going to be drafting "contracts" or "assets" rather than simply drafting a ready-now team.

[Eskimo Brother]

Pretty solid mock.
I like the skaters.

I just can't see Vegas passing on Anton Forsberg (CBJ) and Philip Grubauer (WAS).
Forsberg is better than Korpi (IMO) and Raanta only has 1yr before he becomes UFA.
I just don't see enough value in those two.

Bieksa will be a really interesting one.
I think its easy to suggest teams will work around a guy - and in many cases they will -
Guys like Bieksa, I don't know, I believe he's got family/kids rooted in Anaheim area:
https://twitter.com/kbieksa3/status/...795712/photo/1

I debated Korpi/Forsberg but I don't know enough about either to say with absolute certainty one is going to be better, so for a placeholder I went with the one farther up the depth chart. Grubauer over Alzner also doesn't mess up the roster numbers much, so it's very viable. At that point you could grab Russell or someone else from EDM instead of Brossoit, or Holden instead of Raanta.

I feel like Ana may get Bieksa to waive, but Vegas isn't taking him anyways, and they could also come to an agreement that Vegas can't take him. Would cost the Ducks a lot less that way than trying to convince them not to take Vatanen.