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Thread: League Stats - Why Blocked Shots?

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    Default League Stats - Why Blocked Shots?

    Can someone tell me why so many fantasy leagues use blocked shots as a stat yet almost none of them use takeaways? Over 90% of the time a blocked shot does not help a team at all since the goalie would have made the save anyways. 100% of the time a takeaway helps the player's team since his team now has the puck.

    Discuss.

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    Default Re: League Stats - Why Blocked Shots?

    Well. I challenge.
    I think Blocked Shots are (statistically) significantly more valuable than takeaways.

    What's the average goalie SV%?
    Let's say its .910
    For every 100 shots on net, the goalie saves 91... and 9... go in.
    So a player blocking 100 shots, saves nine goals.
    That's pretty awesome.
    9 goals.

    Kris Russell is often a talking point in the world of advanced hockey analytics.
    By the eye test, he is one of the more "unremarkable" defensemen in the league.
    But certain stats suggest he has real value.
    I think the shots he keeps from getting on net (and hence, going in) is one of those.
    Arguments have been made both ways.
    http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2...n-kris-russell

    But I think the math is as simple as this - for every 100 shots not going on net, you save some goals.
    300 blocks... good as 27 goals, IMO.

    Now... a takeaway, well shit, that's basically a FOW. Its possession gained.
    But the other thing about takeaways is that when they happen, at that moment, your whole team is likely back-checking or playing defense, they might not be at all positioned to go to the offensive.
    So, yes, you "gain possession", but there's nothing about a takeaway that implies the value it will turn into.

    For me: BkS >> Takeaways, as BkS can be shown (as I have) to negate the most negative of the sport: a goal against.

    Bks is basically the defensive equivalent of SOG.
    Keep 100 shots from going on net, give the man a +9.
    Put 100 shots on net, maybe a 9% shooter gets a +9.
    Take the puck away 100 times... who knows, but I bet its not a +9.
    100 FOW certainly don't result in 9 goals... if they did, Patrice Bergeron's FOW would get direct credit for 90-150 Boston goals per season.

    #MathRant

    [ps. As a further talking point, I think a guy who takes a penalty should get a -1. The other team goes on a PP and will score on 20% of those PP opps. He eats a -0.2 for 5 guys, per penalty. Likewise, any player that can draw a penalty should get a +1, for converse measures. Some anlaysts even have algorithms to weight penalties drawn and penalties taken, I've seen them recently as sideways bar graphs giving players for all facets of their game, incl. FOW.]

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    Default Re: League Stats - Why Blocked Shots?

    Well reasoned, Pengwin.

    /thread

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    Default Re: League Stats - Why Blocked Shots?

    Full answer - I defer to P7. Short answer is that takeaways is a very bunched category, with no one getting more than 96 this past season and the 50th best player getting only 50 in total. Blocked shots has a wider spread and thus can allow for more shrewd drafting.
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    Default Re: League Stats - Why Blocked Shots?

    As an additional point: Yahoo, a main fantasy hockey provider, doesn't offer takeaways as a category. What is offered is a major limiting point of fantasy hockey.
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    Default Re: League Stats - Why Blocked Shots?

    There's some fun stats on fantrax that combine block shots with other things like hits or pims.

    My personal favorite is the "Truculence" stat, which combines PIMs, Hits and Blocked Shots!
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    Default Re: League Stats - Why Blocked Shots?

    What exactly counts as a takeaway and giveaway? It doesn't seem to match up with what I see during the game because the puck changes hands so many times during a game.
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    Default Re: League Stats - Why Blocked Shots?

    Quote Originally Posted by ericdaoust View Post
    What exactly counts as a takeaway and giveaway? It doesn't seem to match up with what I see during the game because the puck changes hands so many times during a game.
    ^ this.

    Takeaways and giveaways are so subjective and don't seem to be calculated all that accurately/consistently across the league's arenas - sort of like hits (home team bias) - but much, much worse.

    Whereas, well, a blocked shot is a blocked shot - a stat I think to be really important in the game of hockey.
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    Default Re: League Stats - Why Blocked Shots?

    Pengwin makes some great points as usual. Adding on:

    1. Blocked Shots is an older, more defined stat (still not perfect) thus its better understood and offered by more providers (mainly yahoo, ESPN). It's easier to understand what a "blocked shot" is as opposed to a giveaway/takeaway.
    2. It adds value to D-men. I find most leagues that have added Bks have done it with a specific intention to add value to D-men and specifically a certain type of D-man ("gritty and defensive focused")
    3. Since its more defined there is more of a history of it and its easy to write intelligently about expectations for a player going forward. Without knowing how takeaways will be scored it's impossible to project totals, so bloggers don't write about it, so it doesn't get attention, so fantasy players don't think to add it.
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    Default Re: League Stats - Why Blocked Shots?

    Quote Originally Posted by evans334 View Post
    There's some fun stats on fantrax that combine block shots with other things like hits or pims.

    My personal favorite is the "Truculence" stat, which combines PIMs, Hits and Blocked Shots!
    Amazing, we should get this in our WHL league
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    Default Re: League Stats - Why Blocked Shots?

    We have it to add to the value of Dmen in our yearly leagues. It's also one of the only other tangible/predictable stats that you can use and I think that gives it more value.

    For any more details....please refer to Pengwin's mammoth mathematical reasoning

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    Default Re: League Stats - Why Blocked Shots?

    Quote Originally Posted by evans334 View Post
    There's some fun stats on fantrax that combine block shots with other things like hits or pims.

    My personal favorite is the "Truculence" stat, which combines PIMs, Hits and Blocked Shots!
    I always wondered what that stat was. That makes sense to combine the three considering PIM are harder to predict nowadays with fighting and headshots (misconducts) going down.
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    Default Re: League Stats - Why Blocked Shots?

    Quote Originally Posted by Brosive View Post
    Amazing, we should get this in our WHL league

    Sweet
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    Default Re: League Stats - Why Blocked Shots?

    At least decide that before I draft my team

    personally I think it is the easiest way to add additional value to d men - issue with takeaways is that they can be heavily skewed and not in a way I can justify when watching the game as ED says
    Experience is the teacher of all things.

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    Default Re: League Stats - Why Blocked Shots?

    Quote Originally Posted by SelkeSmooth View Post
    As an additional point: Yahoo, a main fantasy hockey provider, doesn't offer takeaways as a category. What is offered is a major limiting point of fantasy hockey.
    Anyone know any providers that offer takeaways and giveaways as stat categories? I'd be interested in adding them in my league.

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