what should we expect from Seguin?

[varlytime]

Hello friends,

since the recent hiring of Hitchcock i have heard a lot of negative posts about Mr. Seguin. From everything i have read i actually believe that this might be a good thing for fantasy owners. Making Seguin more accountable, and asking him to step up and be a leader on this team makes me think that he would step up his off season training and party less [people seem to think he like to party a lot]

this past year was an absolutely awful year for the stars and sequin alike but he still managed 26g 46 a and 72 pts .. he also shot a very low SH%.

What are peoples expectations of Seguin next year and over the next 5 years.

[RizzeeDizzee]

I seem to be in the minority, but I think Seguin won't benefit. His OZ% likely will drop and his SH Ice Time could rise - great for making him a better all-around player, but not entirely conductive to him scoring in droves. Plus, just take a look at this data and try not to be frightened:

Flyers top scorers in 2001-02 (i.e., the year before Hitchcock came on board) = Roenick (67 points), Gagne (66 points), Recchi (64 points)
Team goals in 2001-02 = 234

Flyers top scorers in 2002-03 = Roenick (59 points), Recchi (52 points), Primeau (46 points)
Team goals in 2002-03 - 211

Blue Jackets top scorers in 2005-06 (i.e., the year before Hitchcock came on board) = Vyborny (65 points), Nash (54 points), Zherdev (54 points)
Team goals for 2005-06 = 215

Blue Jackets top scorers in 2006-07 = Vyborny (64 points), Nash (57 points), Modin (42 points)
Team goals for 2006-07 = 196

Blues top scorers in 2010-11 (i.e., the year before Hitchcock came on board) = Backes (62 points), Berglund (52 points), Steen (51 points)
Team goals in 2010-11 = 232

Blues top scorers in 2011-12 = Backes (54 points), Oshie (54 points), Pietrangelo (51 points)
Team goals in 2011-12 - 206

[DudeImJason]

this would be alarming if it were someone not named Seguin/Benn on Dallas, only offensive player of worth point production wise on this whole list is Roenick and he isn't quite on Seguins level, I think the down year Seguin had was a mainly due to a consistently injured Sharp, & never having a fully healthy Benn, and also the injury he had which made him miss the World Cup of Hockey, think it was a heal injury?, if that's the case those aren't the easiest to come back from, figure Seguin will get back to his 80+ point status, this whole Hitchcock situation is getting blown way out of proportion

I seem to be in the minority, but I think Seguin won't benefit. His OZ% likely will drop and his SH Ice Time could rise - great for making him a better all-around player, but not entirely conductive to him scoring in droves. Plus, just take a look at this data and try not to be frightened:

Flyers top scorers in 2001-02 (i.e., the year before Hitchcock came on board) = Roenick (67 points), Gagne (66 points), Recchi (64 points)
Team goals in 2001-02 = 234

Flyers top scorers in 2002-03 = Roenick (59 points), Recchi (52 points), Primeau (46 points)
Team goals in 2002-03 - 211

Blue Jackets top scorers in 2005-06 (i.e., the year before Hitchcock came on board) = Vyborny (65 points), Nash (54 points), Zherdev (54 points)
Team goals for 2005-06 = 215

Blue Jackets top scorers in 2006-07 = Vyborny (64 points), Nash (57 points), Modin (42 points)
Team goals for 2006-07 = 196

Blues top scorers in 2010-11 (i.e., the year before Hitchcock came on board) = Backes (62 points), Berglund (52 points), Steen (51 points)
Team goals in 2010-11 = 232

Blues top scorers in 2011-12 = Backes (54 points), Oshie (54 points), Pietrangelo (51 points)
Team goals in 2011-12 - 206

[newfcollins]

this would be alarming if it were someone not named Seguin/Benn on Dallas, only offensive player of worth point production wise on this whole list is Roenick and he isn't quite on Seguins level

You're really unselling some of the other players. Recchi had seasons around there of 91, 77, 64, 52, 75. So he could still put up points. Nash's 54 points the year before Hitchcock came in just 54 games and he was just about to start five straight years of 30 goals in Hitchcock's second year. Gagne was only two years away from becoming a point-per-game producer.

Anyways, back to the OP. I think Seguin will be hurt offensively. Hitchcock has already said he wants Seguin to kill penalties and be more defensive minded. That's going to make it harder to get points, and he'll be playing harder minutes.

[Schneider]

RizzeDizze, these are all good points, but one season does not make a career. Many players under Hitchcock went on to have career years with him as a coach.

Flyers 05-06
Simon Gagne - 47G in 72 games (Career high)
Mike Knuble - 34G, 65pts (Career high)
Peter Forsberg - 75pts in 60 games (102pt pace)
Joni Pitkanen - 46pts in 53 games (Career high)

Jackets 07-08
Rick Nash - 38G, 69pts
Nikolai Zherdev - 26G, 61pts (Career high)
Pascal Leclaire - 2.25GAA, .919 SV

Jackets 08-09
Rick Nash - 40G, 79pts (Career high)
Derrick Brassard - 25pts in 31 games
Steve Mason - Calder, 10 SHO

Jackets 09-10
Antoine Vermette - 27G, 65pts (Career high)
Kristian Huselius - 63pts in 74 games (Career pace)

Blues 11-12
Alex Pietrangelo - 12G, 51pts (Career high)
David Perron - 42pts in 57 games (Career pace)
Brian Elliott - 1.56GAA, .940SV in 38 games (like wot)
Jaroslav Halak - 1.97GAA, .925SV (Career high)

Blues 13-14 (skipped the lockout year)
Alex Steen - 33G, 62pts in 68 games (Career pace)
TJ Oshie - 60pts (Career high)
David Backes - 57pts in 74 games (Career pace)

Blues 14-15
Vladimir Tarasenko - 37G, 73pts in 77 games (Career pace)
Jaden Schwartz - 28G, 63pts in 75 games (Career high)
Jori Lehtera - 44pts in 75 games (Career high)
Kevin Shattenkirk - 44pts in 56 games (Career pace)

I was too lazy to go on, but you get the point. If you're worried, don't be...at least not as much. Off-season prognostications are rarely accurate. Remember when Kessel was going to score 50 with Crosby? When Lucic was definitely a lock for 60+ with McDavid? Like, I don't see Tarasenko scoring 50 goals all of a sudden with Hitch gone next season.

[newfcollins]

RizzeDizze, these are all good points, but one season does not make a career. Many players under Hitchcock went on to have career years with him as a coach.

I think the point was the first season under Hitchcock, not long-term.

[DudeImJason]

not saying they are bad players or anything just saying at those points in their careers they aren't at the place Seguin is in his, and in the case of Nash he's always been a goal scorer never really was much of a playmaker career high in assists 39, and true he may play tougher minutes but when you are as skilled as Seguin is and is playing w/ Benn and on a powerplay w/ Benn/Klingberg/Spezza you are gonna get points, not gonna find many 25 year olds who can push for 80+ points in any given year

You're really unselling some of the other players. Recchi had seasons around there of 91, 77, 64, 52, 75. So he could still put up points. Nash's 54 points the year before Hitchcock came in just 54 games and he was just about to start five straight years of 30 goals in Hitchcock's second year. Gagne was only two years away from becoming a point-per-game producer.

Anyways, back to the OP. I think Seguin will be hurt offensively. Hitchcock has already said he wants Seguin to kill penalties and be more defensive minded. That's going to make it harder to get points, and he'll be playing harder minutes.

[RizzeeDizzee]

Indeed my point was mainly about first years under Hitchcock, yet even after the first year things aren't great. Has anyone scored 80+ points in a season under Hitchcock in the last 15 years? The stats that Schneider provided are of course accurate, yet they're likely cherry picked to a degree and don't account for at least as many more whose careers (or at least fantasy careers) Hitch left in tatters.

[Eskimo Brother]

I'm not getting into numbers, but I am not worried about Seguin. He will get his 65+ points in 70 games with some solid SOG totals, PP totals and FOWs. Sell at your own risk, but I am buying.

[ericdaoust]

I'm not getting into numbers, but I am not worried about Seguin. He will get his 65+ points in 70 games with some solid SOG totals, PP totals and FOWs. Sell at your own risk, but I am buying.

This. If anything it will be a minor decline. I'm not worried.

[lucafen4]

point per game... but use Hitch to buy low on Seguin .. perhaps there will be a nice first couple months adjustment to his system slump that can be taken advantage of

[J0e Th0rnton]

Seguin seems game for the opportunity to change his game. We shall see how serious he is, but I suspect he is growing up.

I am hoping for certain things for my league.

#1 No matter how badly him and Hitchcock get along, he is not suddenly going to become a 50 point players like some fear. At worst, I see him with 60 points, and at best he could match some previous highs.

#2 more Faceoff wins. PLEASE. I am deficient in this category with McDavid and Seguin being my top 2 C's in my keep 5.

#3 He will not lose PP time. Who would replace him? Hitchcock is not going to put inferior offensive players on the PP just to punish lack of defensive acumen. he is one of the best PPP players in the league.

#4 Some SHP are welcome, lottery category and all.

#5 his +/- Will probably improve from its awful past season

In short, I decided I am not too worried.

Yes a 75 point player is better than a 65 point player(If Seguin even fell that far under Hitch), but let's not overstate its impact. Over 25 weeks of fantasy, you are talking about the difference of 3 points per week to 2.6 points per week. Seeking these margins among 15 skaters is our goal of course, but its not going to cripple Seguin's value. Especially if he adds peripheral stats

[RizzeeDizzee]

For all those encouraged by Seguin saying the right things, take it from someone who had a front row seat to the mess in Boston and consider that for a while he was saying the right things then too. I get that he's seemingly a much different player/person now than then, but I'm nevertheless shying away from Seguin for the reasons I mentioned. My prediction is 64 points if he plays 82 games.

[J0e Th0rnton]

For all those encouraged by Seguin saying the right things, take it from someone who had a front row seat to the mess in Boston and consider that for a while he was saying the right things then too. I get that he's seemingly a much different player/person now than then, but I'm nevertheless shying away from Seguin for the reasons I mentioned. My prediction is 64 points if he plays 82 games.

Which is a negligible difference from his last year total if he adds more faceoffs for me.

This isn't the 2005-06 years where top players are scoring 109+ points regularly and playing for a defensive team might mean a drop of 40+ points. An outlier or 2 aside Top 15 scorers for the past 5 years have been in the 69-72 point range and top 40 have been 60 points.

Him scoring 72 this year playing zero defense and being -15 as opposed to him being potentially 65 points playing better team defense and +/-0 with more faceoff wins (And possibly some lottery SHP)does not make a ton of difference in my league. 72 points divided by 25 weeks is 2.88 points per week, 65 divided by 25 weeks is 2.6 points per week. That 0.28 points per week is not a make or break factor for me.

Roster balance as a whole, good drafting and streaming will make up that margin in my league.

It might be different for people who have tougher keep 5 choices. But from my perspective, I am not worried.

Boston horribly misused Seguin from the get go and judged him based on his age 19-20. Neely's focus on "our brand of hockey" meant he wanted rough nosed guys who go into the tough areas and pay the price. That management team(Which included current awful Canucks GM Jim benning as assistant GM) seemed to have a myopic view on "We must remain the big bad bruins. He relies on skill too much, just like Kessel did". Well yeah guys, the game has changed. Its a more skill player friendly game now.

Its strange that his Boston reputation still lingers despite him being far more proficient at going into trouble areas, play away from the puck and not having any off ice lifestyle problems whatsoever.

[newfcollins]

Maybe it would be helpful if the OP gives more details on his pool. I was under the impression it was points, since that's all he mentions.

In points only pools, the coaching change could have a big impact Going from 75-80 to 60-65 is huge. In other pools, it depends on needs of a general manager. ie- is it worth to have Seguin win more faceoffs if it means less points? Some fantasy teams could handle that point loss if they're desperate for faceoffs.