Clayton Keller vs Jake Guentzel

[Schneider]

Same here! My team is built to win now, and my only 3 prospects are Keller, Guentzel, and Puljujarvi. Each is locked in dirt cheap for the rest of his career, so hopefully in the next couple of years they will all be making me look like a genius. lol

If I could only keep one of them I honestly have no idea what I would do.

Are you me, because I also own all three in one of my leagues, haha. Honestly, I'm beginning to see bust signs in Puljujarvi. His stickhandling ability is troubling me and the way he plays reminds me a bit of Yakupov in terms of being spazzy.

[Crazy Joe Davola]

Fret not, my man. Puljujarvi is still an ultra talented player who has a really good chance at forming chemistry with McDavid. Fail that? Draisaitl.

He has a big future ahead of him.

The fact that some people are down on him after this year is good for those trying to poach. He's also likely to have a fairly insignificant season next year too, so the market may continue to slip on him.

But year three and four.. look out. I expect some big strides to be coming by then.

I'll be looking to steal him myself at some point. It's tricky cuz the owner is a real ball buster though.

[BreadManPanarin]

Are you me, because I also own all three in one of my leagues, haha. Honestly, I'm beginning to see bust signs in Puljujarvi. His stickhandling ability is troubling me and the way he plays reminds me a bit of Yakupov in terms of being spazzy.

IMG_0367.GIF

[StuntMan12]

If my team is in contention i would take Guentzel. If my team can wait or is in full re-build mode then i'll take Keller. Keller has the highest upside but Guentzel is producing NOW

[Fighting_Emu]

If my team is in contention i would take Guentzel. If my team can wait or is in full re-build mode then i'll take Keller. Keller has the highest upside but Guentzel is producing NOW

Keller ainec.

Maybe 5-10ish point gain this year with pretzel? Then a decade plus of kicking urself because u passed on an elite talent. Within 3 years well be drafting guys because they "get to play with keller".

Mark it.

[Ianclark5525]

Looks like the wait will be worth it for the kid. Looks like he is 100% keeper material in any dynasty leagues

[Ianclark5525]

So realistically who would you compare keller to in nhl right now?
Gaudreau?

[Fighting_Emu]

So realistically who would you compare keller to in nhl right now?
Gaudreau?

Yea Gaudreaus a good comparison- same tier as Marner. Youre looking at 70ish is a ground floor with an upside of Patrick Kane. I know thats high praise (and admittedly not a lock) but I am bullish on him. Reading all kinds of scouting reports saying he slipped based quite a bit on his birthdate and subsequent development path:

The last 17-year-old pure offensive talent that I can remember dominating in the same way Clayton Keller did this past year was Patrick Kane. Both were tiny wizards with the puck. Both set NTDP scoring records. The biggest difference between the two is that Keller was born two months in front of the NHL Draft age cutoff, while Kane was born two months after the age cutoff.

Kane wasn't the consensus first overall pick coming out of the NTDP. His numbers were insane, but I don't think scouts knew quite how to judge those numbers. But because he was a late birthdate, he had aged out of that program and went to the OHL for his draft year, where he continued his scoring domination and became the top overall pick.

I feel like Keller is in a similar situation. He doesn't get talked about as a potential top-five pick in this Draft because people aren't quite sure how to judge his tremendous stats. He doesn't have the benefit of getting to run rampant over another year prior to the Draft. That may be his loss, but a huge gain for whichever team ends up with him, because they're going to be getting a sensational player at a tremendous value.

Source: http://www.sbncollegehockey.com/2016...couting-report



Has arguably the highest pure offensive ceiling in the whole draft. His USHL program numbers are Mathhews/Eichel territory. Hes going to catch people offguard this season...



Some more reading material:

http://www.allaboutthejersey.com/201...ospect-profile

[MasterByte]

I know the safer bet long term is Keller, but I still pick Guentzel.

I know the landscape of the league can shift, lines be shuffled, and he may lose his linemates. Even if he is bumped a line he is playing with Kessel & Geno (I know these guys cant all last forever), but it still a big deal. Playing with Crosby is a legitimate thing - case in point: Chris Kunitz has an olympic gold medal.

[Fighting_Emu]

I know the safer bet long term is Keller, but I still pick Guentzel.

I know the landscape of the league can shift, lines be shuffled, and he may lose his linemates. Even if he is bumped a line he is playing with Kessel & Geno (I know these guys cant all last forever), but it still a big deal. Playing with Crosby is a legitimate thing - case in point: Chris Kunitz has an olympic gold medal.

i hear ya. I like pretzel- hes a legitmiate prospect. He can produce on his own- he is not in the same boat as Sheary as is often portrayed- he can create on his own. That being said- do you want Brassard playing with Crosby or do you want Gaudreau with upside? Keller for me 100 times out of 99 :P

[rataylor22]

Keller obviously has more talent, Guentzel obviously have a better situation. I like betting on talent over situation so Keller, even though I'm fairly confident Guentzel's situation isn't changing anytime soon.

[rataylor22]

Keller ainec.

Maybe 5-10ish point gain this year with pretzel? Then a decade plus of kicking urself because u passed on an elite talent. Within 3 years well be drafting guys because they "get to play with keller".

Mark it.

Yea Gaudreaus a good comparison- same tier as Marner. Youre looking at 70ish is a ground floor with an upside of Patrick Kane. I know thats high praise (and admittedly not a lock) but I am bullish on him. Reading all kinds of scouting reports saying he slipped based quite a bit on his birthdate and subsequent development path:

Source: http://www.sbncollegehockey.com/2016...couting-report

Has arguably the highest pure offensive ceiling in the whole draft. His USHL program numbers are Mathhews/Eichel territory. Hes going to catch people offguard this season...

Some more reading material:

http://www.allaboutthejersey.com/201...ospect-profile

Nobody drafts players because they "play with Gaudreau". Hell, the only player drafted because he "plays with Kane" was Panarin. Nobody drafted Toews, Keith, Hossa, Anisimov, etc. because they "played with Kane".

Also, no prospect who has played 3 games has a 70 point floor. Especially one who can play 3 games and take exactly 0 shots.

We can pump his tires without the insane hyperbole.

[Fighting_Emu]

Nobody drafts players because they "play with Gaudreau". Hell, the only player drafted because he "plays with Kane" was Panarin. Nobody drafted Toews, Keith, Hossa, Anisimov, etc. because they "played with Kane".

Also, no prospect who has played 3 games has a 70 point floor. Especially one who can play 3 games and take exactly 0 shots.

We can pump his tires without the insane hyperbole.

I didnt mean 70 points next year (obviously)- I meant once hes established. As for the Gaudreau stuff a) I already stated that Im bullish on him hitting a higher peak (imho) and b) somer people do draft players who get to play with Gaudreau- lmao! Even Gaudreau might not have hit Gaudreaus ceiling yet- pretty early to be capping that off.

This isnt hyperbole- but Ill hyperbolize if I want too regardless- go sh*t in someone elses corn flakes.

[Crazy Joe Davola]

I think we see a fairly large discrepancy in points next season. AZ is going to be in tough once again unless they go out and make some major changes this offseason. Even if Keller finds himself as the top line centre (which I doubt) or maybe as the L2 winger, it'll still be difficult to produce tangible fantasy relevant numbers. It's difficult for established players to do achieve that in the desert, let alone a teenaged rookie.

The other factor is Dave Tippett who loathes putting youngsters in positions to succeed offensively right out of the gate. Just look at Keller being a healthy scratch numerous times down the stretch when the Coyotes literally had nothing to play for outside of giving young players opportunities. Keller was an accomplished defensive and PK'er in the NCAA and USNTDP due to his speed and awareness. That should help him earn the respect of his coach sooner, but still, Tippett is old school in that regard.

I would say a very positive and successful season would be in the 40-50 point range.

Meanwhile, I don't see Guentzel moving anywhere out the Penguins elite top six and most likely lives next to Crosby for most of next season. He'll likely bounce between the top and second power play units and find a handful of PPP's to boost his very positive even strength production.

I think anywhere from 60-70+ points is on the docket for Guentzel in 2017-18. That's a hefty gap between him and Keller.

I'd imagine we see smaller but still noticeable gaps in their production for the following year or two before Keller could jump into the stratosphere with his amazing skills and hopefully, developed surroundings.

If you swap places with these two players, its a slam dunk, home run, hat trick, touchdown... of a win for Keller. But because Guentzel is a highly skilled player AND in a position to succeed this very moment with little doubt to assume that won't last, while Keller is in a rebuilding desert and needing to accomplish a handful of things before taking off, Pretzel is the easy choice for today and the next few tomorrows.

[Fighting_Emu]

I think we see a fairly large discrepancy in points next season. AZ is going to be in tough once again unless they go out and make some major changes this offseason. Even if Keller finds himself as the top line centre (which I doubt) or maybe as the L2 winger, it'll still be difficult to produce tangible fantasy relevant numbers. It's difficult for established players to do achieve that in the desert, let alone a teenaged rookie.

The other factor is Dave Tippett who loathes putting youngsters in positions to succeed offensively right out of the gate. Just look at Keller being a healthy scratch numerous times down the stretch when the Coyotes literally had nothing to play for outside of giving young players opportunities. Keller was an accomplished defensive and PK'er in the NCAA and USNTDP due to his speed and awareness. That should help him earn the respect of his coach sooner, but still, Tippett is old school in that regard.

I would say a very positive and successful season would be in the 40-50 point range.

Meanwhile, I don't see Guentzel moving anywhere out the Penguins elite top six and most likely lives next to Crosby for most of next season. He'll likely bounce between the top and second power play units and find a handful of PPP's to boost his very positive even strength production.

I think anywhere from 60-70+ points is on the docket for Guentzel in 2017-18. That's a hefty gap between him and Keller.

I'd imagine we see smaller but still noticeable gaps in their production for the following year or two before Keller could jump into the stratosphere with his amazing skills and hopefully, developed surroundings.

If you swap places with these two players, its a slam dunk, home run, hat trick, touchdown... of a win for Keller. But because Guentzel is a highly skilled player AND in a position to succeed this very moment with little doubt to assume that won't last, while Keller is in a rebuilding desert and needing to accomplish a handful of things before taking off, Pretzel is the easy choice for today and the next few tomorrows.

I guess thats fair. I mean I looked at it as Pretzel for 60 and Keller at 50 (hopefully) in year 1. That was off the top my head mind you.

Guentzel for 70 is making me queasy because I just traded him to keep Lindholm so essiantially Guentzel and a 4th for E Lindholm and a 1st (this was before he TRULY broke out). Im really reluctant to accept a 70 point upside but I guess I would concede its possible especially as hes already carving out a role on pp1. He looks safe in the top six but I think like most fantasy hockey managers I get a little nervous when a guy is visibly linemate dependant to get his points (again Ill say I know Guentzel is a legitimate talent on his own but he is clearly benefitting from his team situation).

I didnt take coaching into account for Keller- and I actually still think 50 is a reasonable projection for him (imho). Maybe Im being bullish but I think a sophomore campaign could very easily be in the same range as what were expecting from Guentz- 60-70 point range. A big reason for this is that after another couple years of acclimation for Domi, Dvorak, Chycrun and hopefully significant steps by DeAngelo/Strome I dont think were looking at a roster totally bereft of talent anymore. Its hard to see right now cause its a mess over there but another full season to gel should set up a very solid Arizona (or wherever they are by then) roster for the 2019/20 season. After that there is realistic "boom" potential. I dont think its all that crazy to predict that by year 2 were dealing with similar scoring ranges wheras one has a definitve downside if he loses his role, and the other has definitve upside in that there is the hint of superstar upside with this kid.

So I am loathe to say I was being "hyperbolic" in my original statement I guess I would concede that the difference this year has a real chance at being greater than a 10 point differential. I still maintain that by the fol;lowing year though theres a very strong possibility were not even having this debate. Should bookmark it just for funsies and re-visit...