Clayton Keller vs Jake Guentzel

[Crazy Joe Davola]

I'm hopeful that the difference is negligible by year two. That would be great for me as I own both. As high as I am on Keller, which is very very high, I'm equally high on Guentzel. I think his reliance on Crosby is overblown right now and that he will be able to produce from either L1 or L2. Not like Malkin is a bad fall back plan. If for some reason he falls out of the top six, then of course that'll hurt his production, but we could say the same for virtually every player.

I've pegged Keller as a Kane-like talent for a couple seasons now and have made a promise not to trade him until his true upside has been seen. That's big for me as a trigger-happy trader.

Guentzel I would be more open to moving in a sell-high but man, he's selling me otherwise. I actually see him in the same light as Dobber. If he stays on L1 and carves out even half the games on the top unit, 75+ points isn't unreasonable. The kid has 32 points in his last 28 games and up to 47 points in 54 career NHL games.

He's got the goods.

[MasterByte]

I don't agree with Gaudreau as a comparison. If Keller actually enters the league as a Calder finalist, with no softmore slump, and just keeps rolling as the face of his franchise, than I think he will haev been undervalued by many because those are some tall expectations. Seems like an overvaluation of Keller this early.

Similarly I think comparing Guentzel to Brassard is undervaluing him at this time. Guentzel is no where near as gritty and seems to have a superior hockey sense and awareness. He has the skill to put up points in any top 6 scenario IMO.

[fantasyhockeygeek]

To me, Keller and Marner are pretty much on a par talent-wise. Marner has proven he can thrive in the NHL, but I've got absolute faith that Keller will too. These are legit Patrick Kane -level prospects.

I tend to agree with Emu's assessment. I had Keller pegged as the highest pure offensive upside in his draft, and yes I'm aware that he was drafted with Matthews.

I'm very wary about the groupthink on Guentzel. He's a guy that's going to have to prove it to me a few times before I buy in... that's what having such a meh draft pedigree and pre-NHL career will do for you. Great if he sticks and demonstrates he's special of his own accord, and if the acquisition cost is low then hell yes you swing for it. Sometimes these plays work out, and sometimes they don't.

There's no sense denying opportunity here: Guentzel has it in spades, with the best linemates one could hope for. There have been some incredibly productive fantasy seasons by folks boosted by their linemates, so that's always good.

When it comes to prospects, I look hard at pre-draft production, age adjusted. Those that stick out get a lot of my attention, and Keller shines there. He could also get Lindros'd and fall short... the future is unknowable. But into such an unknowable future, I'll err on the side of pedigree and upside every time.