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Thread: Guentzel

  1. #16
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    The Magnificent One

    Default Re: Guentzel

    Here are a couple of things to keep in mind.

    This season the Pens' PP clicked at the third best rate in the NHL, with Malkin, Kessel, and Crosby being together on PP1 together over 90% of the time. Thus, chances are the team doesn't rethink stacking PP1, nor having these three guys be part of it.

    That leaves one other spot, assuming they don't use two d-men. If you go back basically the last decade, the Pens have always had a "big body" on PP1, namely at least one of Chris Kunitz, James Neal, or Patric Hornqvist (who was out there on PP1 about 70% of the time this season). Incidentally, the team's shooting % at 5x4 in 2016-17 was highest when Hornqvist was on the ice - 15.89%.

    Now admittedly, they had their fourth highest team shooting % with Guentzel out there (14.29%), but what I'm trying to convey is be careful about even penciling Guentzel in for PP1 duty. Old habits die hard, especially when they seem to be working well.
    DobberHockey Senior Writer (columnist since 2012)
    Click here to read my weekly "Roos Lets Loose" columns, going live every Wednesday morning and consisting of a rotating schedule of a "forum buzz" column, a fantasy hockey mailbag, a tournament/poll, and an edition of Goldipucks and the Three Skaters: https://dobberhockey.com/category/ho...key-rick-roos/

  2. #17
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    Default Re: Guentzel

    Guentzel is one of the few players who won't need PP1 time to produce fantasy relevant numbers. I am of the mind that he'll bounce between the top and second unit throughout next season, but his EV production will be very solid. Potentially upper echelon type stuff.

    I'm feeling comfortable projecting him to produce in the 0.80-0.90 point per game range - 66-74 points over a full campaign.

    Yes, I'm bullish on him.
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  3. #18
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    Default Re: Guentzel

    Quote Originally Posted by Crazy Joe Davola View Post
    Guentzel is one of the few players who won't need PP1 time to produce fantasy relevant numbers. I am of the mind that he'll bounce between the top and second unit throughout next season, but his EV production will be very solid. Potentially upper echelon type stuff.

    I'm feeling comfortable projecting him to produce in the 0.80-0.90 point per game range - 66-74 points over a full campaign.
    I said this in a previous Guentzel thread and I'll say it again in response here. The list of Penguins forwards who have scored 65+ points in a season since Crosby came into the league in 2005-06 consists of exactly six players - Crosby (10 times), Malkin (8 times), and one time each for Kessel, Neal, Kunitz, and Recchi. Here were the powerplay point totals for the non-Malkin and non-Crosby guys in their season when they posted 65+ points - Neal (30), Kessel (30), Recchi (27), Kunitz (22)

    From this, I think it's fairly safe to say that Guentzel will be hard pressed to post 60-65+ points unless he's a PP1 staple, which, for the reasons I raised above, could turn out to be very unlikely. My advice remains to tread lightly and temper expectations.
    DobberHockey Senior Writer (columnist since 2012)
    Click here to read my weekly "Roos Lets Loose" columns, going live every Wednesday morning and consisting of a rotating schedule of a "forum buzz" column, a fantasy hockey mailbag, a tournament/poll, and an edition of Goldipucks and the Three Skaters: https://dobberhockey.com/category/ho...key-rick-roos/

  4. #19
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    Default Re: Guentzel

    Quote Originally Posted by RizzeeDizzee View Post
    I said this in a previous Guentzel thread and I'll say it again in response here. The list of Penguins forwards who have scored 65+ points in a season since Crosby came into the league in 2005-06 consists of exactly six players - Crosby (10 times), Malkin (8 times), and one time each for Kessel, Neal, Kunitz, and Recchi. Here were the powerplay point totals for the non-Malkin and non-Crosby guys in their season when they posted 65+ points - Neal (30), Kessel (30), Recchi (27), Kunitz (22)

    From this, I think it's fairly safe to say that Guentzel will be hard pressed to post 60-65+ points unless he's a PP1 staple, which, for the reasons I raised above, could turn out to be very unlikely. My advice remains to tread lightly and temper expectations.
    I am guessing the list of Penguins rookies (or rookies in general) who put up .81 points per game at even strength/shorthanded in their first 52 career games during that time period is even smaller.

    I think that anyone who is projecting 60-70 points for Guentzel next year is doing so with a strong belief that he is a player whose hockey IQ gives him a unique chemistry with Crosby that his other teammates over that period did not have. Someone of this persuasion isn't going to give much weight to what Crosby's teammates have done in the past when projecting what Guentzel will do in the future because they wouldn't believe it to be a relevant predictor.

    Your conservative approach to projecting Guentzel is probably the smart one and certainly the low-risk one, but that doesn't necessarily mean it will end up being the right one.

    One of the fun parts of fantasy hockey is going with your gut, against the grain of sound logic and most likely outcomes.

  5. #20
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    Default Re: Guentzel

    Quote Originally Posted by BreadManPanarin View Post
    I am guessing the list of Penguins rookies (or rookies in general) who put up .81 points per game at even strength/shorthanded in their first 52 career games during that time period is even smaller.

    I think that anyone who is projecting 60-70 points for Guentzel next year is doing so with a strong belief that he is a player whose hockey IQ gives him a unique chemistry with Crosby that his other teammates over that period did not have. Someone of this persuasion isn't going to give much weight to what Crosby's teammates have done in the past when projecting what Guentzel will do in the future because they wouldn't believe it to be a relevant predictor.

    Your conservative approach to projecting Guentzel is probably the smart one and certainly the low-risk one, but that doesn't necessarily mean it will end up being the right one.

    One of the fun parts of fantasy hockey is going with your gut, against the grain of sound logic and most likely outcomes.
    Small indeed, plus not particularly encouraging - in 2005-06 Colby Armstrong's rookie stat line was 40 points in 47 games, which is hauntingly similar to Guentzel's 33 in 40.

    Even still, everything you said in your post was fair and reasonable and it will be fun to see how this shakes out.
    DobberHockey Senior Writer (columnist since 2012)
    Click here to read my weekly "Roos Lets Loose" columns, going live every Wednesday morning and consisting of a rotating schedule of a "forum buzz" column, a fantasy hockey mailbag, a tournament/poll, and an edition of Goldipucks and the Three Skaters: https://dobberhockey.com/category/ho...key-rick-roos/

  6. #21
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    Default Re: Guentzel

    Quote Originally Posted by RizzeeDizzee View Post
    Small indeed, plus not particularly encouraging - in 2005-06 Colby Armstrong's rookie stat line was 40 points in 47 games, which is hauntingly similar to Guentzel's 33 in 40.

    Even still, everything you said in your post was fair and reasonable and it will be fun to see how this shakes out.
    I appreciate your attempt to present a comparable, but I'm not really sure it is one that would change my mind any. Armstrong's .60 even strength/short handed PPG don't really come close to touching Guentzel's .81 mark (or .75 if you only look at regular season)... Plus Armstrong played 19:04 TOI/game versus Guentzel's 15:53 in the regular season, which I am guessing included much more PP time than Guentzel got.

    I am betting that if Guentzel got similar TOI and PP time to what Armstrong did then he would have probably at least matched Armstrong's 12 PP pts, which would have given him 42+ points in 40 games. Pure conjecture, but I think it illustrates my point that I don't think Armstrong's past performance is an accurate predictor of Guentzel's future performance.

    I couldn't agree more - it will be fun to see how it shakes out

  7. #22
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    Default Re: Guentzel

    I agree with both of you. The reasonable and conservative expectation of Geuntzel relying on EV points (which is a difficult matter) and lacking prime PPTOI will result in lower production. However, I, like Breadman, feel we are looking at a very talented and smart player. Guentzel processes the game at a high level, he has great speed, awareness, release. And to toss the cherry on top, has demonstrated quick and high-level chemistry with one of the greatest offensive players in the last 20 years.

    It's recipe for many points - both at even strength and on the man advantage - which I think he'll find himself getting onto that top unit fairly regularly next season. If he doesnt, that'll obvious hurt his production but I still like him to push near the bottom end of the 0.8-0.9 prediction.

    If he does push himself onto the top unit fully? Look out. He could legitimately push for a point-per-game.

    Players certainly struggle early in the careers, and he may find with some more familiarity, teams will key in on him and the numbers might grind down, but I just love the smarts on him and couple that with speed and skills and I see a kid worthy of gambling on to be a top tier asset one day.

    Should be fun to watch!
    Staff Writer for DobberHockey
    Associate Editor/Senior Writer and Scout for DobberProspects - Vancouver Canucks

    Keep on, keepin' on.

  8. #23
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    Default Re: Guentzel

    Guentzel up to 104.0 rating on Dobber's Top 200 Prospects list.

    For comparison here are the ratings that some recently graduated top prospects had at the time of their graduation from the list:

    Auston Matthews 113.2
    Patrik Laine 111.8
    Leon Draisaitl 103.5
    Jonathan Drouin 99.6
    Mitch Marner 98.1

    Dobber sure does like Guentzel, and I hope he's right!

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