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Thread: Next year's 40 win club

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    Default Next year's 40 win club

    this year, there were 4 goalies with at least 40 wins - bob, holtby, Talbot and duby. which goalies will hit 40 next year?
    I know a lot depends on where goalies such as fleury and bishop land, but if you wanna get ahead in fantasy hockey, you've got to think ahead, and those guys won't be signing for another 2 months.
    can young studs matt murray, freddie Andersen, jake allen and john Gibson stay healthy enough to be in that top tier conversation?
    let's assume price is always a threat for 40 wins.
    I personally can't see rask playing any better than this year, and this year he had 37 wins.
    will the sharks get better or worse - martin jones had 40 wins two seasons ago, but was down to 35 this past year. can he do better next year, or will it be more or the same.
    how do you all see scott darling doing in Carolina, assuming he signs and is their starter? similar trajectory to cam Talbot, or is he not on that level?

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    Default Re: Next year's 40 win club

    1) Of the four young guys you mentioned, the order in likelihood that they reach 40 wins next year :

    Jake Allen - Mike Yeo is working his magic similar to how he worked his magic with Dubby
    Murray - Pittsburgh will win a lot again next year and Fleury will be gone.
    Gibson - I think Anaheim has one more year of winning the Pacific.
    Andersen - I think with so many rookies, this will be the 'one step back' after taking 'two steps forward' this year. Too many rookies this year to not be affected by sophomore slumps next year.

    2) I am not sure about Rask playing any better, but I think the Bruins as a whole can play better. I don't see huge decline in Rask yet.

    3) I think Sharks are in serious trouble (similar to Vancouver before they became Vancouver of today)

    4) I do not see Darling at the same level as Talbot, and I don't think Carolina has the star power to take as big of jump as Edmonton.

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    Default Re: Next year's 40 win club

    Vasilevskiy. Should get all the work he can handle, just a matter of how well TB plays with Stamkos back... and whether he stays healthy.

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    Default Re: Next year's 40 win club

    Freddie Andersen for me.
    I think TOR is going to be the next really great team.
    100+pts next year, 40w for Freddie.

    I actually think that Fleury will somehow be passed over by LV and left in tandem with PIT.
    (I see LV licking their chops on drafting three prospects: Grubauer, A.Forsberg, Brossoit... or making a run at the younger Bishop.)
    Thus, I think Murray will be more 32-36w territory.

    I'm not a huge fan of STL.
    I think they are closer to this 2nd round team than they are to the 1st round team.
    A 90pt team, yes, but that's about 35w for Allen.

    I think Vas will get a solid back-up and TB won't overwork him by tandeming him with a 25-30 start vet. 35w there.

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    Default Re: Next year's 40 win club

    my choices for 40 win club next year are:

    Braden Holtby
    Matt Murray
    Andrei Vasilevsky
    Cam Talbot
    Devon Dubnyk

    I have my doubts that Columbus will have the same year they did this season with darn near everyone on the team having break-out seasons one would have to think there are down years due for most of them.

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    Default Re: Next year's 40 win club

    Quote Originally Posted by Pengwin7 View Post
    I think Vas will get a solid back-up and TB won't overwork him by tandeming him with a 25-30 start vet. 35w there.
    If you can't overwork a 22 year old stud, who can you overwork?

    I'm guessing Vasi plays virtually every game except back to backs. Not sure how many games those back to backs add up to, but 82 minus that number is my guess lol (barring injury of course)

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    Default Re: Next year's 40 win club

    Wth how Holbty is playing this year's play offs I wonder if they ease up his work load next season (granted the first play offs that his stats have suffered). Dubnyk, Allen and Price have the best bets at 40 wins for me with very little behind them. Murray could if Fleury is gone, Vas could depending who the back up is and I think Talbot will be there or thereabouts
    Experience is the teacher of all things.


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    Default Re: Next year's 40 win club

    Quote Originally Posted by BreadManPanarin View Post
    If you can't overwork a 22 year old stud, who can you overwork?
    Go back through the last 10-15 years of hockey.
    Count the number of goalies that have played 70gp+ in a season.
    Count how many of them made it to the Stanley Cup Final that year.
    Post those two numbers.
    (A smart GM knows these things.)

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pengwin7 View Post
    Go back through the last 10-15 years of hockey.
    Count the number of goalies that have played 70gp+ in a season.
    Count how many of them made it to the Stanley Cup Final that year.
    Post those two numbers.
    (A smart GM knows these things.)
    Obviously I'm not going to go count anything. You can share the numbers if you want.

    I think a Martin Jones workload (65 games) is achievable for Vas, and that the Lightning could be good enough to turn 61.5% of those games into victories.

    Others may disagree, which is fine.



    Also, Talbot started 73 games this season and the Oilers look to have a chance of winning the cup. But maybe some people wouldn't accuse Peter Chiarelli of being a smart GM.

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    Default Re: Next year's 40 win club

    Quote Originally Posted by BreadManPanarin View Post
    Obviously I'm not going to go count anything. You can share the numbers if you want.

    I think a Martin Jones workload (65 games) is achievable for Vas, and that the Lightning could be good enough to turn 61.5% of those games into victories.

    Others may disagree, which is fine.



    Also, Talbot started 73 games this season and the Oilers look to have a chance of winning the cup. But maybe some people wouldn't accuse Peter Chiarelli of being a smart GM.
    The counting really wasnt that hard.

    In the last 10 years there have been 33 times a goalie started 70+ games in a season. None of them won a Cup.
    League and team details:
    12 Team, Keep 14, 82GP Cap/Position
    Skaters Points only, Goalies 2ptWin/3ptSO
    Start: 4C,4LW,4RW,6D,2G
    C- Crosby, Giroux, Couturier, E.Lindholm
    RW- Kessel, Perry, Zuccarello, Dadonov
    LW- Marchand, Huberdeau, Tkachuk, Lee
    D- Pietrangelo, OEL, Carlson, Gositisbehere, Fowler, Trouba
    G- Price, Rask
    Bench- Raanta, Greiss, Niederreiter, Ferland, Bjorkstrand, Heed
    Picks-1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10

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    Default Re: Next year's 40 win club

    The last goalie to satisfy both criteria was Brodeur in 2000.
    League and team details:
    12 Team, Keep 14, 82GP Cap/Position
    Skaters Points only, Goalies 2ptWin/3ptSO
    Start: 4C,4LW,4RW,6D,2G
    C- Crosby, Giroux, Couturier, E.Lindholm
    RW- Kessel, Perry, Zuccarello, Dadonov
    LW- Marchand, Huberdeau, Tkachuk, Lee
    D- Pietrangelo, OEL, Carlson, Gositisbehere, Fowler, Trouba
    G- Price, Rask
    Bench- Raanta, Greiss, Niederreiter, Ferland, Bjorkstrand, Heed
    Picks-1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10

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    Default Re: Next year's 40 win club

    Quote Originally Posted by theslymonkey View Post
    The counting really wasnt that hard.

    In the last 10 years there have been 33 times a goalie started 70+ games in a season. None of them won a Cup.
    Of course it wasn't hard. It just would have taken time that I don't care to spend counting

    Like I said, 65 games would give him a shot at 40 wins imo.

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    Default Re: Next year's 40 win club

    Quote Originally Posted by Pengwin7 View Post
    Freddie Andersen for me.
    I think TOR is going to be the next really great team.
    100+pts next year, 40w for Freddie.
    I think Toronto takes a step back next. A sophomore slump here or there. Plus injuries. They were really lucky this year. Of their top 11 point-getters, none missed more than five games. Matthews, JVR, Kadri, Nylander, Gardiner, Brown, Zaitsev, Komararov and Hyman missed a combined one game.

    Marner missed five. Bozak missed four. Rielly (number 12 in points on the Leafs) missed six.

    Andersen played 66 games.

    I don't believe they'll have another season that healthy, and that will hurt the team in points (and wins for Andersen).

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    Default Re: Next year's 40 win club

    Quote Originally Posted by newfcollins View Post
    I think Toronto takes a step back next. A sophomore slump here or there. Plus injuries. They were really lucky this year. Of their top 11 point-getters, none missed more than five games. Matthews, JVR, Kadri, Nylander, Gardiner, Brown, Zaitsev, Komararov and Hyman missed a combined one game.

    Marner missed five. Bozak missed four. Rielly (number 12 in points on the Leafs) missed six.

    Andersen played 66 games.

    I don't believe they'll have another season that healthy, and that will hurt the team in points (and wins for Andersen).

    Agree they'll lose more man-games due to normal health/injury rates.
    However, quality NHL rookies (see McDavid, Connor... Stamkos, Steven, etc.) make BIG strides in their sophmore season.
    The Leaf rookies that were very good this year are going to be even better next year.
    There will be less defensive lapses next year.
    So even with a guy out of the line-up here & there, the team will get better. Babcock is going to have these guys clicking.
    I think TOR could leapfrog as high as the #3 position next year, win the Northeast, finish only behind WAS,PIT in the overall East.
    They are going to be really, really, really good.

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    Default Re: Next year's 40 win club

    Quote Originally Posted by Pengwin7 View Post
    Go back through the last 10-15 years of hockey.
    Count the number of goalies that have played 70gp+ in a season.
    Count how many of them made it to the Stanley Cup Final that year.
    Post those two numbers.
    (A smart GM knows these things.)
    Based on the past 11 years, 4 teams have won the cup with their playoff starter having less than 40 regular season games played. 3 of them had less than 30 starts during the regular season. Also 4 of the past 11 Cup finalists reached the finals by not using the goalie that started the most regular season games. Smart GMs should know this and not use their best goalie during the regular season so they have a better chance of winning the Stanley Cup.

    This is definitely not true. The sample size from your stat base is way too small to mean anything.

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