2017; The Summer of the RFAs!!

[Bass56]

I glanced at the RFA list recently after hearing on my local sports radio station that the Habs would be best served if the sent out a few offer sheets to some key RFAs (Drouin, Kuznetsov, Duclair,...). I was surprised how ''good'' the list was (here's a dated list as a few players have already signed extensions such as Panarin): http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/t...ohansen-tatar/

We usually talk about UFAs in the offseason but this year, it seems like the RFAs may gather some extra interest.

My questions to you guys and gals are:

1) Is there really a ''code'' among GMs where most teams will not go after a RFA, not because of the price/compensation of doing so but more by ''respect'' to the other GM? The local sports radio station mentioned this and I wasn't sure that it was really that accurate. I get that there's a form of respect there, but making your team better within the rules has to prevail IMO.

2) If there were certain players to go after, who would they be and at what amount (consider the compensations if the offer pans out):

*These are 2016 numbers
Offer Sheet.........................Compensation
$1,205,377 or less.........................None
$1,205,378 to $1,826,328................Third Round
$1,826,329 to $3,652,659................Second Round
$3,652,660 to $5,478,986................First and Third Round
$5,478,987 to $7,305,316................First, Second and Third Round
$7,305,317 to $9,131,645................Two First Rounds, Second and Third Round
$9,131,646 and up..........................Four First Rounds

and 3) If any offer sheets get sent out from opposing teams, do you think they will mostly be to try to land the given player or will they be sent to make sure that the current team pony's up the amount to match it (i.e. Montreal sends an offer sheet to a developing Drouin for $6.5 million when TB planned on signing him to a bridge contract... I doubt TB lets him go so by matching the offer, they are spending more than planned)

Anyways, just wanted to pick your brains here; I'm sure we can come up with a whole bunch of different scenarios especially since Vegas will get dibs with that 48-hr window.

[RizzeeDizzee]

I think if there are zero offer sheets this summer, with this RFA class, it'll essentially be proven as something that exists only in theory.

[Bass56]

I think if there are zero offer sheets this summer, with this RFA class, it'll essentially be proven as something that exists only in theory.

i.e. an unwritten rule/respect among the GMs?

[lucafen4]

if anyone on that list gets an offer sheet, I'd bet on Drouin. Would/could Yzerman match a 7m - 7yr offer on him? On the flip side, would a GM believe Drouin is worth a 1st, 2nd, 3rd rounder?

Only other I can see is Palat, but for less. If someone can figure out Y's internal contract ceiling for each player, any of the 3 could be vulnerable (in theory)

[Bass56]

I'd bet on Drouin. Would/could Yzerman match a 7m - 7yr offer on him? On the flip side, would a GM believe Drouin is worth a 1st, 2nd, 3rd rounder?

Drouin is the perfect example here as he's looking to see a huuuuuge increase with little to show for it (he has shown great progress but far from being worth 6.5+ mil. per year).

If I were the Habs, he would be one of my targets without a doubt! 6.5 is a hefty price but the 3 draft picks are not very valuable if A) you end up being one of the top teams so the pick is closer to the next round and B) you tend to strike out more often than not with your picks like Montreal does.

[MZac]

I feel like the picks are so valuable these days it makes it tough to justify.

That said Kuznetsov and Drouin at the right price I think are worth more than the draft picks (especially if you have no shot at the top 10 spots). The problem is if you are writing an offer sheet then you are likely over paying and not getting them at the right price... It takes the right situation for a team (in the standings, financially, locker room, position etc) and the right player to make this work. It's a high risk move for a GM and so many things have to be in place for it to be a home run. If it fails you never hear the end of it and it's probably a catalyst in losing your job. I don't see most gm's willing to take that chance.

I also look at the personalities and history of the players listed above. From the limited information we have these guys aren't people I'd want to build around, they are more supporting cast with a big personality risk attached.

My bet is zero offer sheets but not because of the alleged "code". Because I don't see a team in the right situation or a player worth taking the risk on.

[Bass56]

I don't see a team in the right situation or a player worth taking the risk on.

Hehe, not even:

- Bergevin (job definitely on the line after this year's gamble, their early draft picks rarely turn into something good, need for an impact move)
- Going after Drouin in Tampa (Quebec-born and raised kid, in for a $$ increase but not too much so Habs will overpay, Tampa has a bunch of valuable RFAs so cash will be strapped, Drouin had a tantrum less than a year ago in TB, ...)

I'd also be surprised if they didn't send one to Duclair in Arizona!

I get your point though; picks are very coveted nowadays, but considering the quality of the RFAs, I'm banking on a few offer sheets being thrown out there! Stay tuned

[Jouko-Pouko]

Hehe, not even:

- Bergevin (job definitely on the line after this year's gamble, their early draft picks rarely turn into something good, need for an impact move)
- Going after Drouin in Tampa (Quebec-born and raised kid, in for a $$ increase but not too much so Habs will overpay, Tampa has a bunch of valuable RFAs so cash will be strapped, Drouin had a tantrum less than a year ago in TB, ...)

I'd also be surprised if they didn't send one to Duclair in Arizona!

I get your point though; picks are very coveted nowadays, but considering the quality of the RFAs, I'm banking on a few offer sheets being thrown out there! Stay tuned

If Habs want to go further next season in the playoffs, they'd be better off spending that $6.5M on Radulov than Drouin. Drouin could help them after a few years but if their cap hit is similar, Radulov helps much more right now. I doubt a GM like Bergevin is thinking 2-3 years down the road, he's thinking about next season only.

And Duclair... How much would you have to pay so that Arizona wouldn't match? Maybe $3.7M? And then you end up with a bad contract and you could have used that money on a player who can help you more next season.

As MZac mentioned, the situation would have to be perfect for an offer sheet. It's way too early to say if a situation like that would happen in the summer but right now it's very unlikely. Teams aren't stupid enough to get into cap hell and leave their RFAs exposed for offer sheets - if they can't afford them, they trade those players before anyone has a chance to offer sheet them.

[Bass56]

If Habs want to go further next season in the playoffs, they'd be better off spending that $6.5M on Radulov than Drouin.

I agree and disagree here as they should re-sign Radulov but they also need something MORE to even get a shot at making the playoffs come next year. Freeing up $6mil is not easy but I would much prefer to spend that money on Drouin than to re-sign an aging Markov. The kicker that will most likely hurt them is Galchenyuk. You either trade him or you have to give him more than he is currently worth/making. Even if he signs a bridge contract for 4-4.5 for 2 years, that's an extra 1.5-2$ mil. that you didn't have on your cap this year.

And Duclair... How much would you have to pay so that Arizona wouldn't match? Maybe $3.7M? And then you end up with a bad contract and you could have used that money on a player who can help you more next season.

In Duclair's case, I don't think they would want to force Arizona's hand though. I was not insinuating that they should go after him in an aggressive manner and overpay like in Drouin's case; my bad if it sounded like that. I think they send a decent offer (i.e. 2.25 mil.) and see if Arizona bites or not. They have nothing to lose as it would cost them a 2nd rounder at best.

Hmmm, so most of you think it's going to be quiet in this department... guess my assumptions were off then!

[Jouko-Pouko]

I agree and disagree here as they should re-sign Radulov but they also need something MORE to even get a shot at making the playoffs come next year. Freeing up $6mil is not easy but I would much prefer to spend that money on Drouin than to re-sign an aging Markov. The kicker that will most likely hurt them is Galchenyuk. You either trade him or you have to give him more than he is currently worth/making. Even if he signs a bridge contract for 4-4.5 for 2 years, that's an extra 1.5-2$ mil. that you didn't have on your cap this year.



In Duclair's case, I don't think they would want to force Arizona's hand though. I was not insinuating that they should go after him in an aggressive manner and overpay like in Drouin's case; my bad if it sounded like that. I think they send a decent offer (i.e. 2.25 mil.) and see if Arizona bites or not. They have nothing to lose as it would cost them a 2nd rounder at best.

Hmmm, so most of you think it's going to be quiet in this department... guess my assumptions were off then!

If they don't re-sign Markov, then they need to find another top-4 D-man. Their blueline isn't great as it is, so they couldn't survive without a Markov type playing there. D-men are more important to team success than wingers, that's my opinion.

Sending a $2M offer to Duclair is also not going to help anything because Arizona would just match it if Duclair signs it in the first place. Players are also often reluctant to sign offer sheets because they know they may have to return to their original team regardless but their relationship takes a hit because they signed a contract with someone else. Players like that get usually traded at some point, so if they like where they are, they don't want to mess it up. It shouldn't affect their relationship with the team but GMs don't forget something like that.

[rataylor22]

Every summer we have a list of players who should get an offer sheet and don't. Whether it's a team trying to nickle and dime a player (Kucherov) or a team being way too capped out to match (Kucherov), there's lots of obvious reasons to attempt to offer sheet players. And it never happens. There's obviously more than one reason for this. The first is that there's obviously just an unwritten rule between GMs. The second is that you quite clearly are destroying a relationship with a team, meaning you're unlikely to ever be able to trade with that GM. The third is that most NHL GMs are risk averse pansies terrified of ever making a bold or aggressive move. They'd rather just tell the media that trades are hard and winning is hard and every part of their job is just so hard, like being an NHL GM should be easy but for some reason it's not.

I firmly believe we've likely seen the last of the offer sheets, and it will probably get taken out of the next CBA. But if we see one before that, it will be for McDavid. If GMs are so stuck to their code that the don't give McDavid a max term, max money deal (if given the opportunity obviously), they obviously care more about keeping their tight knit old boys club together more than they care about winning NHL hockey games.

[Bass56]

Players are also often reluctant to sign offer sheets because they know they may have to return to their original team regardless but their relationship takes a hit because they signed a contract with someone else. Players like that get usually traded at some point, so if they like where they are, they don't want to mess it up. It shouldn't affect their relationship with the team but GMs don't forget something like that.

I didn't even think about that but ya, I guess that has to play a role in it!





As for Markov, he is playing a top-4 role but I don,t think that they can't bank on him anymore and they definitely can't give him a 2-year $5+ mil. cap hit contract (but they probably will since there are few D's on the market). The Drouin example was just a case for a team in dire need of offense trying to find a different (and more expensive way) to land some firepower. I get that all the pieces have to be in place for it to happen though. Time will tell but I think guys like Galchenyuk and Markov will likely be the key pieces that will dictate what the Habs can and can't do this offseason.

[RizzeeDizzee]

The second is that if you quite clearly are destroying a relationship with a team, meaning you're unlikely to ever be able to trade with that GM.

This is a blanket statement, and not correct. Sharks offer sheeted Hjarmalsson in 2010, then the two teams made a trade in 2015. The Avs and Flames also made a deal in 2015 despite the ROR offer sheet that happened in 2013. Neither was a major deal - I'll give you that. But offers don't leave hard enough feeling as to turn a blind eye toward a possible deal with a team.

[rataylor22]

This is a blanket statement, and not correct. Sharks offer sheeted Hjarmalsson in 2010, then the two teams made a trade in 2015. The Avs and Flames also made a deal in 2015 despite the ROR offer sheet that happened in 2013. Neither was a major deal - I'll give you that. But offers don't leave hard enough feeling as to turn a blind eye toward a possible deal with a team.

In the case of the Avs and Flames, The GMs of both teams had changed by the time the trade was made.

[LawMan]

I bet we see 1, 2 at the absolute maximum. In addition to all the “relationships/code” reasons are the following:

1. There is no negotiations allowed, the offering team has to come up with 1 offer and send it for potential acceptance. If the offer is too high the offering team risks overpaying, if it’s too low everyone sees what they offered.
2. It’s a lot of work with little upside. Rarely are offer sheets accepted, even rarer are they not matched. Sure it’s nice to screw over another team but even GMs only have a finite amount of time, better to spend it on negotiating with players who are UFA’s, or future RFA’s and thus you have a higher chance of landing.
3. The compensation requirement creates a situation where an offering team should be paying slightly less for a player, whoever a RFA is only going to sign if offered much more.
4. No NMC/NTC option. A team making an offer sheet can include a NMC/NTC (if the player is otherwise eligible) however the matching team need only match the dollar value. So Offering team gives generous compensation and promises full NMC/NTC, matching team matches dollars but gives no protection, RFA ends up on current team with no protection, even if the dollars are higher the player may value some form of protection.
5. Those Offer sheets that have been signed and not matched have rarely worked out. Found this list of offer sheets signed, only a few have actually lead to getting the player.