Morgan Rielly

[BreadManPanarin]

So I've noticed that while the Leafs fans over at HFBoards.com are losing their minds over Rielly's playoff performance against the Caps, throwing praise left and right *edit - we dont share links to that site here*, there hasn't been much gushing or even discussion about him going on here.

In 6 postseason games Rielly's stats were:

1 Goal, 4 Assists, +1, 2 PIM, 16 SOG, 14 Hit, 13 Block, 3 Power Play Points

After getting very little PP time all regular season, Rielly started getting some good time on the PP in this series and was the only D Man to record any PP points for the Leafs. In game 5 he got >50% of PP time and in game 6 he was the only one to get PP time (all of 37 seconds).

+/- has been an issue for Rielly throughout the year (and his career), but over the past 24 games including playoffs he was a +1 so maybe he is getting that figured out. I don't need Rataylor to point out that this is another small sample size post.

5th year breakout for Rielly in 2017-18, anyone? I'd give him a good chance at 40-50 points with good shot rate and decent peripherals if he can manage to stay on the PP. Hard to believe he just turned 23 years old. Seems like he has been around a long time.

[StamkosFan]

I like Rielly, I think he's a good pickup long term. Not sure about the points but I think there'll be significant improvement with the plus/minus, especially as the Leafs offense continues to improve and produce more scoring. The Leafs still have a few young stars down in the minors that will come up soon too, the future is bright for the franchise

[MZac]

It's all about pp1 for him to break out. You've gotta think he gets it soon and I'd bet next year is the year.

[Axeman33]

Sorry BMP, I editted your post. We don't share links to HF forums on this site. We'll take your word for it that it's going on there.

[BreadManPanarin]

It's all about pp1 for him to break out. You've gotta think he gets it soon and I'd bet next year is the year.

I agree. The bulk of the difference between Zach Werenski's 47 points and Morgan Rielly's 27 points this year was that Werenski had 21 PPP, and Rielly had 5.

Werenski got ~58% of the Jackets PP time this season, while Rielly got ~17% of Leafs total PP time. Big difference in opportunity.

- - - Updated - - -

Sorry BMP, I editted your post. We don't share links to HF forums on this site. We'll take your word for it that it's going on there.

Ah, ok. Didn't know that. Duly noted!



Care to weigh in on Rielly while you're at it?

[ericdaoust]

I doubt Rielly delivers relative to expectations in fantasy. Three out of four years he's under 30 points. Right now the hype is artificially increasing his trade value. IMO you'll break even at best if you make a move for him now.

Just look at how many times Drew Doughty has disappointed fantasy-wise.

[BreadManPanarin]

I doubt Rielly delivers relative to expectations in fantasy. Three out of four years he's under 30 points. Right now the hype is artificially increasing his trade value. IMO you'll break even at best if you make a move for him now.

Just look at how many times Drew Doughty has disappointed fantasy-wise.

Fair point! I bet Leafs fans wouldn't mind much if Rielly disappointed in the same manner that Doughty has. hehe

[ericdaoust]

Fair point! I bet Leafs fans wouldn't mind much if Rielly disappointed in the same manner that Doughty has. hehe

Has nothing to do with life outside of fantasy hockey. I'm merely stating players often disappoint in hockey pools relative to their name value. I usually let others deal with the headaches.

[BreadManPanarin]

Has nothing to do with life outside of fantasy hockey. I'm merely stating players often disappoint in hockey pools relative to their name value. I usually let others deal with the headaches.

I know, I was just kidding. Threw in the "hehe" to try to make that clear.

[BreadManPanarin]

I am hoping Rielly can copy Hedman's career path (fantasy wise). In his first 4 seasons he has actually scored at a higher rate than Hedman did. .34 PPG for Hedman in first 4 years, .38 PPG for Rielly in first 4 years (with more PP time, admittedly). Once Hedman started getting significant PP time he stepped up his game considerably, with 55 points in year 5. And obviously he is on a whole 'nother level now a few years later. I do see some similarities between Rielly and Hedman in terms of talent and quality of supporting cast. I can dream!

[RizzeeDizzee]

I doubt Rielly delivers relative to expectations in fantasy. Three out of four years he's under 30 points. Right now the hype is artificially increasing his trade value. IMO you'll break even at best if you make a move for him now.

Just look at how many times Drew Doughty has disappointed fantasy-wise.

So much this....

[2014olympicgold]

He needs to somehow now learn to take a slapshot. He does that and he separates himself from Gardiner/Zaits for PP1 duties. Leafs currently don't have a point shot presences and if he can be that, look out.

[BreadManPanarin]

Right now the hype is artificially increasing his trade value. IMO you'll break even at best if you make a move for him now.

So much this....

Thankfully I already acquired him for virtually nothing a couple months ago when his value was at probably the lowest it has ever been... so no worries there.

I agree that buying now after his playoff performance could prove problematic.

[lucafen4]

The more I see him, the more I think somewhere in the "A more offensive version of Ryan McDonagh" is where Rielly lands... as a Leaf fan, I'm more excited about his real life value than fantasy value. So getting a 24min top line Dman who takes care of his own zone, can skate like he can, make first passes and reads, recover like he can and chip in northwards of 40pts - per season (where I expect he'll land).

Leaf Nation better f---ing rejoice!

[The Bottlenecker]

It would be hard to acquire Rielly right now for fair value. On the other hand I think you could fleece an uneducated (fantasy-wise anyways) Leafs fan to over pay for him. He is a 40-45 point dman who happens to play in Toronto so he may be worth a 50-55 point dman to some homer.