Outlook for Stars who had down years in their 30's

[jcheung29]

Do you see this season as an aberration or the start of a downtrend for these old (er) historically consistent stars? How would you rank them - points only ignoring position?

Anze Kopitar
Patrice Bergeron
Claude Giroux
Corey Perry

[StamkosFan]

1. Bergeron
2. Perry
3. Kopitar
4. Giroux

Giroux is particular has been trending downwards for awhile; only had 14 goals this year. Kopitar may have just been an off year, and he's still under 30 so he's not that old, but 12 goals still is less than impressive and could signal that time has gotten the best of him. While Perry and Bergeron have had down years, Bergeron did hit the 20 goal mark and Perry almost did

[Bass56]

I can see all 4 having another season that resembles their top outputs respectively.

Perry is the one I see having the hardest time repeating so I'll peg him in the 60-70 range for a few more seasons.

Kopitar and Bergeron in the 60-70 range as well but those numbers are closer to their highest output anyways.

Giroux is the one from this list that gets the least love around here. Yes, his numbers have decreased, but he is still an elite player IMo and he should bounce back come next season. Look for him to finish in the 70-80 range baring any injuries (maybe closer to the mid 70's).

So basically, for the next 2 seasons, I see them in this range:

Giroux (+-75)
Kopitar Bergeron (+- 65)
Perry (+-65 but closer to 60)

[SuperMario]

My biggest worry is Perry. He's a power forward, and we've seen others of his ilk have swift declines. I'm not saying Dustin Brown... but who knows?

The other three I would peg as more likely to bounce back based on their style of play and historical precedents.

[Axeman33]

Dustin Brown's decline had nothing to do with his age. He dropped off well before he was 30 years of age.

[Pengwin7]

re: This Player List
Whenever you look at any player list, its definitely worth going beyond the points.
I like to break offensive stats down into: ESP, PPP, SOG

Alex Ovechkin is a great example.
Many of us have been noting his downward trend in ESP for several years.
You need some stamina for a full NHL season to score a lot of ESP... and OV doesn't have it any more.
PPP is basically hands/sense weaponry. Skating/stamina are less important. This is why Jagr is still a PP weapon.
SOG is a combination of two... but if a player's SOG drops, its a big sign that something (??) is wrong.

Starting with SOG:
Patrice Bergeron (age 31) hasn't dropped a bit. If anything, I'd say he's at or better than his level of play from last year.
In 15/16, Bergeron scored 68pts on 43 ESP*, 25 PPP, 282sog with 11.3 SH%. Now... He's a 10% career shooter, so 11.3% is a bit high. Also, Bergeron had been a 10-15 PPP type player, so 25 was a lot... though with Krug Bs can do 15-20 per player.
In 16/17, Bergeron scored 53pts on 36 ESP*, 17 PPP, 302sog with 7.0 SH%. What you'll see here is his SOG are actually UP 20. That's great. PPP simply normalized and his SH% was well below his average, just a rocky start.
But a 15pt difference here is nothing if one goes deep in the stats.
In my eyes, Bergeron is a 63pt player who'll give you 40 ESP, 23 PPP on about 290sog at 10%.
NO decline.

Giroux (age 29), that's a worrysome case.
In 15/16, Giroux had 67pts on 40 ESP, 27 PPP, 241sog and 9% SH.
In 16/17, Giroux had 58pts on 27 ESP, 31 PPP, 199sog and 7% SH.
Well, his shooting was down 2%, that's just bad luck.
But he's 42sog DOWN... and that's a problem.
Also - 27 ESP is dismal. That's 2nd/3rd line type numbers.
He also played 1min/gp less.
IDK - I'm not sure what was going on... but something is off.
I'd only call Giroux a 60pt F going forward.

Corey Perry is in a similar boat.
15/16, he had 62pts on 38 ESP + 24 PPP with 215sog and 15.8% SH. That's high, he's a career 13% SH.
16/17, he had 53pts on 33 ESP + 20 PPP with 215sog and 8.8% SH. That's low.
For Perry, 7% x 215 sog = 15 goals. FIFTEEN. His assists were actually up from 15/16... and he got exact same number of pucks on net.
His TOI was exactly same as previous year as well.
Perry's a 60-63pt guy that will give you 35g/25a on 35esp/25ppp and 13% SH.
He should start a decline around 34/35, but I think he just had an off-shooting year.

Kopitar is just same as other guys... but my worry rate is higher.
15/16, he had 74pts on 58 ESP + 18 PPP. 177sog and 14% SH. Note that the SH% is actually higher than his 12% career SH.
16/17, he had 52pts on 33 ESP + 19 PPP. 150sog and 8% SH.
Kopitar has been trending down in SOG for several years now. He was a 230sog guy in his prime, then 200 in 13/14, then 134, 177, 150. He's barely putting 2sog/gp on net.
Kopi's 14/15 was actually a pretty indicative season for him at 64pts... 15/16 was lucky to be 74, shoulda been 62... and 16/17 was unlucky to be 52, shoulda been 60.
I think that's Kopitar: 64... 62... 60... and I think we'll see him around 58pts-62pts next year.

Peng's Worry Radar:

NOT WORRIED AT ALL: Bergeron
...
...
NOT WORRIED, but expect decline just due to big body/age in about 2-3 years: Perry
...
PRETTY WORRIED: Kopitar
PRETTY WORRIED: Giroux

For Kopitar, I almost vibe it as a little lack of motivation having several cup rings and a big long contract. Where's the motivation now?
For Giroux, I think the losing in PHI is just a huge grind. He also had the big long contract but knows PHI is still way off in the East with that young D and shaky G.
Everything feels stagnant for PHI fans - so it must feel that way for players.
Maybe the young D will emerge quickly next year and re-energize G.


[NB* I group shorthanded points with even strength points for discussion.)

[SuperMario]

I'm not saying it's age as much as it is style of play. Both play(ed) a hard-nose type game that can wear a player down, seemingly faster than the more skilled players. I could be way off, but I can see Perry being on the downswing of his career and not rebounding.

[lucafen4]

re: This Player List
Whenever you look at any player list, its definitely worth going beyond the points.
I like to break offensive stats down into: ESP, PPP, SOG

Alex Ovechkin is a great example.
Many of us have been noting his downward trend in ESP for several years.
You need some stamina for a full NHL season to score a lot of ESP... and OV doesn't have it any more.
PPP is basically hands/sense weaponry. Skating/stamina are less important. This is why Jagr is still a PP weapon.
SOG is a combination of two... but if a player's SOG drops, its a big sign that something (??) is wrong.

Starting with SOG:
Patrice Bergeron (age 31) hasn't dropped a bit. If anything, I'd say he's at or better than his level of play from last year.
In 15/16, Bergeron scored 68pts on 43 ESP*, 25 PPP, 282sog with 11.3 SH%. Now... He's a 10% career shooter, so 11.3% is a bit high. Also, Bergeron had been a 10-15 PPP type player, so 25 was a lot... though with Krug Bs can do 15-20 per player.
In 16/17, Bergeron scored 53pts on 36 ESP*, 17 PPP, 302sog with 7.0 SH%. What you'll see here is his SOG are actually UP 20. That's great. PPP simply normalized and his SH% was well below his average, just a rocky start.
But a 15pt difference here is nothing if one goes deep in the stats.
In my eyes, Bergeron is a 63pt player who'll give you 40 ESP, 23 PPP on about 290sog at 10%.
NO decline.

Giroux (age 29), that's a worrysome case.
In 15/16, Giroux had 67pts on 40 ESP, 27 PPP, 241sog and 9% SH.
In 16/17, Giroux had 58pts on 27 ESP, 31 PPP, 199sog and 7% SH.
Well, his shooting was down 2%, that's just bad luck.
But he's 42sog DOWN... and that's a problem.
Also - 27 ESP is dismal. That's 2nd/3rd line type numbers.
He also played 1min/gp less.
IDK - I'm not sure what was going on... but something is off.
I'd only call Giroux a 60pt F going forward.

Corey Perry is in a similar boat.
15/16, he had 62pts on 38 ESP + 24 PPP with 215sog and 15.8% SH. That's high, he's a career 13% SH.
16/17, he had 53pts on 33 ESP + 20 PPP with 215sog and 8.8% SH. That's low.
For Perry, 7% x 215 sog = 15 goals. FIFTEEN. His assists were actually up from 15/16... and he got exact same number of pucks on net.
His TOI was exactly same as previous year as well.
Perry's a 60-63pt guy that will give you 35g/25a on 35esp/25ppp and 13% SH.
He should start a decline around 34/35, but I think he just had an off-shooting year.

Kopitar is just same as other guys... but my worry rate is higher.
15/16, he had 74pts on 58 ESP + 18 PPP. 177sog and 14% SH. Note that the SH% is actually higher than his 12% career SH.
16/17, he had 52pts on 33 ESP + 19 PPP. 150sog and 8% SH.
Kopitar has been trending down in SOG for several years now. He was a 230sog guy in his prime, then 200 in 13/14, then 134, 177, 150. He's barely putting 2sog/gp on net.
Kopi's 14/15 was actually a pretty indicative season for him at 64pts... 15/16 was lucky to be 74, shoulda been 62... and 16/17 was unlucky to be 52, shoulda been 60.
I think that's Kopitar: 64... 62... 60... and I think we'll see him around 58pts-62pts next year.

Peng's Worry Radar:

NOT WORRIED AT ALL: Bergeron
...
...
NOT WORRIED, but expect decline just due to big body/age in about 2-3 years: Perry
...
PRETTY WORRIED: Kopitar
PRETTY WORRIED: Giroux

For Kopitar, I almost vibe it as a little lack of motivation having several cup rings and a big long contract. Where's the motivation now?
For Giroux, I think the losing in PHI is just a huge grind. He also had the big long contract but knows PHI is still way off in the East with that young D and shaky G.
Everything feels stagnant for PHI fans - so it must feel that way for players.
Maybe the young D will emerge quickly next year and re-energize G.


[NB* I group shorthanded points with even strength points for discussion.)

Love this break down.. I would have pushed Giroux a bit further below Kopitar though. I see him bouncing back and being capable of another 70+pt season. I'm much less convinced CG can do that.

[roenick27]

Pengwin pretty much nailed it. But I still think some of these projections are on the high end.
-I'm not sure I see Perry ever get 60 points again. Some of utilization the last year has been really low. I can see another year where he excels but I think most years he's more of a 50 point ish guy.
-Bergeron I agree he is where he is. He just never had that 90 point season etc.
-kopi. Face it. He needs some help. As LA hopefully gets more help up front, I think he will bounce back. Also sutter leaving may free up more offense. I still think he has some 70ish seasons left, but also some 55-60 ones
-G. Idk. I think philly has been a train wreck. I've always thought voracek was overrated. Simmons likely will decline some. Schenn idk. As konecny etc come in, I think G bounces back 65-75 ish for him but short term could see more 60ish

[kovalchuk17]

theres a universe where all of those guys hit 70 again.

In order of most likely in my books,

Bergeron
Giroux
Kopitar
Perry

[Sulla]

Agree with Bass and Kovalchuk but that's based more on feel.... Bergeron still has premier wingers to pass too, Giroux is still the man in Philly as is Kopitar in LA, Perry is the one who least appeals but as with any deal cost to acquire plays a huge part here

[The Iron Sheik]

having watched the Bruins in this series and regular season, I do see a decline in Bergeron. He's been almost non existent. isn't taking over games, isn't showing a lot of skill.

[Tobias Funke]

This time of year, never know if a guy is playing through an injury though. Should be taken into consideration.

[Wonko]

Points only I think they will rank:

Kopitar
Giroux
Bergeron
Perry

I think Kopitar comes back with a good season. His pride will be wounded slightly after this season. He is only 29. He should bounce back to high 60's, might top 70. Giroux will likely be right there with him in the high 60 to low 70 point range. Bergeron is not as prolific of a scorer. I do think he has a better season next year too, but low 60's at best. Perry has been off the top PP and looks to be losing some of his opportunity that is why I put him at the bottom of the list. The best I can see for Perry is a 60 point season. Just my 2 cents

[TheWhale]

Nice breakdown Penguin.
Bergeron is the only one I feel confident in rebounding. Maybe even Perry, given his low shooting %. I would be selling Kopitar and Giroux to the highest bidder