Jake Guentzel - Where to draft?

[domo604]

It's early but still pre-slotting sleepers for next year for similar league as in my signature...non-keeper

Last year I uncovered some beauties like Ehlers/Pastrnak in the 16th/18th round respectively, and Arvidsson on waiver this year

Next season, one of the sleepers I pegged and even picked up this year before injury was Guentzel (if I had him would have won as lost 1 category by 2 shots, and lost guentzel early in that week to week...instead wound up 3rd)

Curious where everyone slots Guentzel next year? Where do you potentially reach for him? Picks 60 to 80 range i'm thinking as now it seems more and more a younger guys league, and the kid scores beauties and "dirty goals" (i.e. the patric hornqvist type in the tough areas but no fear to go to those areas)

[Eskimo Brother]

I think you could probably grab him in the 70-90 range depending on how well the rest of the playoffs go for him.

[domo604]

I think you could probably grab him in the 70-90 range depending on how well the rest of the playoffs go for him.

That's what I was thinking too...I was hoping that he'd fall to the 110-130 pick range as some folks usually tend towards the proven guys...but I always prefer the younger guys as in theory...less health risks, and less burn out possibilities as Pavelski/Burns this year seemed to slow down heavily as an example

[Eskimo Brother]

Younger guys carry their own risk too. Pulj got drafted in that range last year and barely did anything productive as an example.
It depends how good the other GMs in your league are and how well you know them The less informed and the better you know them, the farther you may try to let him slip before nabbing him.

[Big Baby]

Dobber thinks that he will finish your point the game if he sticks with Crosby all next year, and avoid injury that would make him a first or second round pick. This kid has tons of talent and is playing with the best set up and goal scorer in the NHL. I think the sky is the limit

There are times to be cautious and there are times to be aggressive. This is a situation where you need to be aggressive. He isn't coming out of nowhere, he was tearing it up in the AHL before he was called. He is the real deal get him while you can

[domo604]

Dobber thinks that he will finish your point the game if he sticks with Crosby all next year, and avoid injury that would make him a first or second round pick. This kid has tons of talent and is playing with the best set up and goal scorer in the NHL. I think the sky is the limit

There are times to be cautious and there are times to be aggressive. This is a situation where you need to be aggressive. He isn't coming out of nowhere, he was tearing it up in the AHL before he was called. He is the real deal get him while you can

He has 2nd round potential, but still be too high risk to take him in top 3 rounds...4th is a stretch...maybe 5th/6th round depending on what's around only because he isn't on top PP permanently (yet)

[RizzeeDizzee]

It will be heavily playoff-dependent. If he shines, then honestly I think Guentzel will be one of those guys who'll go too early for right-minded poolies to risk reaching for him. Sure - everything looks great now, but just be sure not to take him too early since he's likely a feast or famine player.

[Eskimo Brother]

Yahoo and all the other draft providers will probably put him too high so they aren't caught off guard by sticking him with too low of a ranking

[joe jones]

I like him wherever you had Ehlers in this past year's draft, and Kucherov the year before.

[Sulla]

Always find anews ring these sort of questions difficult as a lot comes down to feel and you get that as you see other guys drafts develop. Personally I'm a huge fan and I can understand some reaching for him which is probably why I avoid him.... Draft him for 60 if possible (Sid is hardly the epitome of health) and hope for the 70s and 80s but depending what else is on the board I don't draft him as an 80 point guy

[RizzeeDizzee]

Always find anews ring these sort of questions difficult as a lot comes down to feel and you get that as you see other guys drafts develop. Personally I'm a huge fan and I can understand some reaching for him which is probably why I avoid him.... Draft him for 60 if possible (Sid is hardly the epitome of health) and hope for the 70s and 80s but depending what else is on the board I don't draft him as an 80 point guy

If he does even remotely well in the playoffs and the Pens win a couple of rounds, then there is zero chance he'll be there in the "60 if possible" range, which is why I advocate for letting someone else reach for him. Meanwhile, you'll likely be able to get a guy like Arvidsson - who'll have less hype and comes with less feast or famine risk - in the proper range for his value.

[Bass56]

I feel there is too much hype (and pressure) around this kid. A few weeks ago it was Sheary, now its Guentzel. Next thing you know it will be Aston-Reese.

If guys like Hornqvist can't be repeat 60+ point players while playing with Crosby/Malkin, I doubt these kids are shoe-ins for anything above that, let alone 60 on the dot.

FWIW, I really like Guentzel and Sheary and I can SEE them hitting 60+ next year but if I have a guy like Mark Stone, Radulov, Johansen or Forsberg on the board, I'll be drafting them beforehand (as potential 60+ point players).

[RizzeeDizzee]

Anybody remember Shawn McEachern? He was a 6th round pick in 1989 and in 1992-93 he posted 61 points as in his first full season for the Pens at age 23, and only posted 60+ once more again, and not until nearly a decade later. But boy oh boy was there hype for him going into 1993-94. Also, there's the reality that the list of Pens forwards to score 65+ points in a season since Crosby came into the league in 2005-06 consists of exactly six players - Crosby (10 times), Malkin (8 times), and one time each for Kessel, Neal, Kunitz, and Recchi.

Two words - buyer beware.

[Eskimo Brother]

Anybody remember Shawn McEachern? He was a 6th round pick in 1989 and in 1992-93 he posted 61 points as in his first full season for the Pens at age 23, and only posted 60+ once more again, and not until nearly a decade later. But boy oh boy was there hype for him going into 1993-94. Also, there's the reality that the list of Pens forwards to score 65+ points in a season since Crosby came into the league in 2005-06 consists of exactly six players - Crosby (10 times), Malkin (8 times), and one time each for Kessel, Neal, Kunitz, and Recchi.

Two words - buyer beware.

I see what you're saying, but I do disagree.
First off, I was born in '94 so I can't say I remember McEachern. That point flies over my head a little. The thing it does point out to me though is that it doesn't happen often that someone hits 60pts early, and flames out if you have to go back that far for a Pittsburgh example. Kessel and Neal could put up 60 in their prime with most teams, but weren't with Pittsburgh long enough to make this list more than once. Kunitz wouldn't have made this list without Crosby, and Recchi actually hit the mark 3 times in his first stint with Pittsburgh (topping 100 once) then hit it once again in his second stint (in the only full season he was healthy). Basically lots of factors coming into play here.

Guentzel I would see as a 60+ point player on any team if not next year than the year after. If he plays with Crosby, then he has the potential for a whole lot more. Bottom line is that I am high on him, Crosby or not.

[RizzeeDizzee]

I see what you're saying, but I do disagree.
First off, I was born in '94 so I can't say I remember McEachern. That point flies over my head a little. The thing it does point out to me though is that it doesn't happen often that someone hits 60pts early, and flames out if you have to go back that far for a Pittsburgh example. Kessel and Neal could put up 60 in their prime with most teams, but weren't with Pittsburgh long enough to make this list more than once. Kunitz wouldn't have made this list without Crosby, and Recchi actually hit the mark 3 times in his first stint with Pittsburgh (topping 100 once) then hit it once again in his second stint (in the only full season he was healthy). Basically lots of factors coming into play here.

Guentzel I would see as a 60+ point player on any team if not next year than the year after. If he plays with Crosby, then he has the potential for a whole lot more. Bottom line is that I am high on him, Crosby or not.

EB - did you see my post in the keeper forwards subforum? When Neal, Kessel, Kunitz, and Recchi scored 65+ with the Pens they each had between 22 and 30 PPPts, plus averaged eons of time on PP1. For 2017-18 I feel pretty confident in saying the Pens' PP1 will be Crosby, Malkin, Kessel, a healthy D, plus either another healthy D or - if they go according to longstanding form - a big, hulking forward, which for present purposes would be Hornqvist. Neither Sheary nor Guentzel fits into that mold/mix, so they'll likely be on the outside looking in. Yes - I realize that's how it was for them this season, yet there's a far cry from doing what they did in 2016-17 and stretching that out to somehow amount to 65+ points. Among the 281 instances of just 60+ scoring (not even 65) among forwards since 2010-11, only 14 corresponded to seasons where a forward scored fewer than a dozen PPPts. If I raise the points threshold to 65, the total number of instances shrinks to 176, of which a mere 5 corresponded to forwards who tallied fewer than a dozen PPPts in that same season.

We're not disagreeing with each other - I just want to make sure folks pause to think about reality versus upside.