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Thread: Jake Guentzel - Where to draft?

  1. #16
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    Default Re: Jake Guentzel - Where to draft?

    Quote Originally Posted by RizzeeDizzee View Post
    Anybody remember Shawn McEachern? He was a 6th round pick in 1989 and in 1992-93 he posted 61 points as in his first full season for the Pens at age 23, and only posted 60+ once more again, and not until nearly a decade later. But boy oh boy was there hype for him going into 1993-94. Also, there's the reality that the list of Pens forwards to score 65+ points in a season since Crosby came into the league in 2005-06 consists of exactly six players - Crosby (10 times), Malkin (8 times), and one time each for Kessel, Neal, Kunitz, and Recchi.

    Two words - buyer beware.
    I fail to see the relevance of any of this.

    Are you drawing some kind of comparison to Shawn McEachern here? If not, why did you single him out? Cherry-picked stats aren't indicative of future events just because. Sure, lots of players start with a bang and never live up to expectations. So? Plenty of players also continue to improve on their good seasons.

    As for the number of pens players reaching 65 points, is that number high or low in comparison to other teams? I don't see what bearing this has on the outlook for Guentzel.

    I see a lot of statistical cherry-picking here, without any rhyme or reason behind the numbers you're using.



    EDIT: I just saw your above post about pp time, which does help justify some of what you've said. My bad.

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    Default Re: Jake Guentzel - Where to draft?

    Quote Originally Posted by forumname View Post
    I fail to see the relevance of any of this.

    Are you drawing some kind of comparison to Shawn McEachern here? If not, why did you single him out? Cherry-picked stats aren't indicative of future events just because. Sure, lots of players start with a bang and never live up to expectations. So? Plenty of players also continue to improve on their good seasons.

    As for the number of pens players reaching 65 points, is that number high or low in comparison to other teams? I don't see what bearing this has on the outlook for Guentzel.

    I see a lot of statistical cherry-picking here, without any rhyme or reason behind the numbers you're using.



    EDIT: I just saw your above post about pp time, which does help justify some of what you've said. My bad.
    No worries, and although it might seem cherry picked, that's only because there are so few instances of fantasy success other than the "big two or three" of the given Pens era, be it Mario and Jagr, or Recchi and Jagr, or Jagr, Recchi,and Francis. You get the idea. There's only room for 2-3 cooks in the kitchen that is elite Pens forwards. And it's like that for most teams too. The great thing about Malkin and Crosby are they create offense, yet they themselves also factor heavily into scoring, leaving not a ton of room for other forwards to benefit on the scoresheet.

    Make no mistake - Sheary and Guentzel seem like they could buck the odds, yet before them so too did McEachern, Ryan Malone, Petr Sykora, Colby Armstrong, Ruslan Fedotenko, Bill Guerin, Steve Sullivan, Miro Satan, Erik Christensen, and so on. Of course some of those were older players and reclamation projects, yet all had their time alongside Crosby and it didn't work out.

    I'll repeat what I've said in each posting - when it comes to Sheary and Guentzel, treat lightly and buyer beware. Far more poolies have been hurt by drinking the Pens winger kool-aid than have been helped by doing so.
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    Default Re: Jake Guentzel - Where to draft?

    Quote Originally Posted by RizzeeDizzee View Post
    EB - did you see my post in the keeper forwards subforum? When Neal, Kessel, Kunitz, and Recchi scored 65+ with the Pens they each had between 22 and 30 PPPts, plus averaged eons of time on PP1. For 2017-18 I feel pretty confident in saying the Pens' PP1 will be Crosby, Malkin, Kessel, a healthy D, plus either another healthy D or - if they go according to longstanding form - a big, hulking forward, which for present purposes would be Hornqvist. Neither Sheary nor Guentzel fits into that mold/mix, so they'll likely be on the outside looking in. Yes - I realize that's how it was for them this season, yet there's a far cry from doing what they did in 2016-17 and stretching that out to somehow amount to 65+ points. Among the 281 instances of just 60+ scoring (not even 65) among forwards since 2010-11, only 14 corresponded to seasons where a forward scored fewer than a dozen PPPts. If I raise the points threshold to 65, the total number of instances shrinks to 176, of which a mere 5 corresponded to forwards who tallied fewer than a dozen PPPts in that same season.

    We're not disagreeing with each other - I just want to make sure folks pause to think about reality versus upside.
    I hadn't seen that, and it's a very good set of numbers to bring up. Either way, I am still high on both players, even though they may be limited a bit right now. It isn't too hard to get some inconsistent PP time during the season though with Malkin, Crosby, Letang and Hornqvist likely to miss a full 82 games between them. And if one player is filling in the spot on the top PP, I think it will be Guentzel.
    The other thing I will say is that talent wins out, and Guentzel is a very talented kid. He will get points one way or another. We definitely aren't disagreeing, I think I'm just a little optimistic with the immediate upside.
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  4. #19
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    Default Re: Jake Guentzel - Where to draft?

    Quote Originally Posted by RizzeeDizzee View Post
    If he does even remotely well in the playoffs and the Pens win a couple of rounds, then there is zero chance he'll be there in the "60 if possible" range, which is why I advocate for letting someone else reach for him. Meanwhile, you'll likely be able to get a guy like Arvidsson - who'll have less hype and comes with less feast or famine risk - in the proper range for his value.
    totally agree hence I say I probably avoid him - he won't be there but when I'm planning I make sure to envision that so I don't get caught up in the hype/panic to take him
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