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Thread: Guentzel/top pick

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    Default Guentzel/top pick

    Guentzel
    2nd round pick 2017 entry draft

    Labanc
    Top two pick 2017 entry draft

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    Default Re: Guentzel/top pick

    I usually take the proven side when it's close but I'll go with the top-2 pick here. I like Guentzel but getting a shot at a guy like Patrick is something I'd risk here as Hischier would be a nice consolation prize if you don't get the first overall.
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    Default Re: Guentzel/top pick

    I'm on the Guentzel side. He has me convinced he'll be a 65+ point guy next season, maybe even approaching 75 if the line with Crosby and Sheary can stay healthy. So I'll stick with proven.

    Also is this points only or multicat?
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    Default Re: Guentzel/top pick

    I think the side with top-2 pick has more trade value, so I'd go with that side. Guentzel should not cost you that much even if he's worth it. His name value just shouldn't be there right now.

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    Default Re: Guentzel/top pick

    If I was competing I'd take Guentzel.

    If rebuilding I'd take Patrick/Hishier.

    If you're good at trading find out which of the two will net you a better return and take that side.

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    Default Re: Guentzel/top pick

    Quote Originally Posted by Eskimo Brother View Post
    I'm on the Guentzel side. He has me convinced he'll be a 65+ point guy next season, maybe even approaching 75 if the line with Crosby and Sheary can stay healthy. So I'll stick with proven.

    Also is this points only or multicat?
    Points only

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    Default Re: Guentzel/top pick

    Quote Originally Posted by Bass56 View Post
    I usually take the proven side when it's close but I'll go with the top-2 pick here. I like Guentzel but getting a shot at a guy like Patrick is something I'd risk here as Hischier would be a nice consolation prize if you don't get the first overall.
    Is Nolan Patrick that good that he'd be worth it over a semi-proven asset like Guentzel? (I understand Guentzel is far from fully proven with a small sample size and always playing with Crosby)
    I'm more curious about Patrick: I see that it is generally thought by some that this years draft class is weaker than the last couple. Where do Patrick & Hischier slot in for you?

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    Default Re: Guentzel/top pick

    I would take Guentzel in any situation here. He's had a very good progression, shows chemistry with either of the top 2 centres in PIT (who aren't going anywhere), is far too good for the AHL and simply put, is producing no matter what the situation. He looks like he'll be a heck of a player. His hockey sense looks great.

    I should add that the literature I've seen on Patrick out there does not suggest the coming of an elite offensive talent. Hischier had a great WJC but one good tournament an elite player does not make. Using the whole birds in hand vs bush argument, I go Guentzel here and almost as a no-brainer.
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    Default Re: Guentzel/top pick

    Quote Originally Posted by MasterByte View Post
    Is Nolan Patrick that good that he'd be worth it over a semi-proven asset like Guentzel? (I understand Guentzel is far from fully proven with a small sample size and always playing with Crosby)
    I'm more curious about Patrick: I see that it is generally thought by some that this years draft class is weaker than the last couple. Where do Patrick & Hischier slot in for you?

    Way too early to tell. I am a fan of Guentzel (I actually predicted him to compete for the Calder before the season started so I am well aware of his skillset. He was my sleeper pick) but I dont think too many expected him to be this good this early. Playing with Crosby obviously helps. The question is, how good is he if he isn't playing with Crosby?

    And as far as "generally thought by some this years draft class is weaker than the last couple", that's a no brainer. Patrick/Hischier aren't considered franchise players like McDavid and Matthews were so it's easy to say it wont be as good at the top end, but that doesn't mean they won't be excellent hockey players and that this years draft class is weak at all.

    Most weren't able to see this of Guentzel when he was drafted (he went in the 3rd round after all) but most pundits seem pretty sure about the top two picks in this years draft. As I say, time will tell.
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    Default Re: Guentzel/top pick

    What Praba said IMO
    Experience is the teacher of all things.


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    Default Re: Guentzel/top pick

    The way I see it, the odds of you landing a really good/great player are on your side. Every year, we talk about the upcoming draft not being as strong as draft X. Usually, 2003 is listed as the top draft in the past 15 years... I agree, it was an epic draft due to the sheer number of superstars picked in the first round. But if we look back on the past 16 years, the top-2 picks have blossomed into stars more often than not.

    Here is the list (1st and 2nd pick respectively):
    '01: Kovalchuk, Spezza
    '02: Nash, K. Lehtonen
    '03: Fleury, E. Staal
    '04: Ovechkin, Malkin
    '05: Crosby, B. Ryan
    '06: E. Johnson, J. Staal
    '07: P. Kane, JVR
    '08: Stamkos, Doughty
    '09: Tavares, Hedman
    '10: Hall, Seguin
    '11: RNH, Landeskog
    '12: Yakupov, R. Murray
    '13: Mackinnon, Barkov
    '14: Ekblad, S. Reinhart
    '15: McDavid, Eichel
    '16: Matthews, Laine

    I bolded the franchise players that were pegged before their respective draft years (I left Kovalchuk and Spezza out although there was a lot of hype around them at the time) and I put the weaker top picks in italic (I added RNH even if I feel he still has a few gears he can hit).

    When you break it down, out of 32 picks, about 7 of them were pegged as franchise players prior to their respective selections (=22%) and 5 of them have been flops until now (16%).

    That leaves you with over 60% of players selected with the first 2 picks ('01-'16) who became important pieces for their respective franchises (and who have also been fantasy relevant). Add the franchise players to the mix and you are looking at some solid odds of landing an important piece for your fantasy team.

    I'd roll the dice on that top-2 pick and overlook those who say this draft is not as strong... FYI, 2010 was pegged as a so-so draft prior to the picks being made; Hall, Seguin, Johansen, Tarasenko and Kuznetsov all came from that first round.

    PS: this doesn't take away anything from Guentzel though. He's a great young player that should have a promising career.
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    Default Re: Guentzel/top pick

    Quote Originally Posted by MasterByte View Post
    Is Nolan Patrick that good that he'd be worth it over a semi-proven asset like Guentzel? (I understand Guentzel is far from fully proven with a small sample size and always playing with Crosby)
    I'm more curious about Patrick: I see that it is generally thought by some that this years draft class is weaker than the last couple. Where do Patrick & Hischier slot in for you?
    Patrick and Hischier are still very young and raw. They have the skill and IQ to become really good at the next level but they are still kids at this point. It's always a gamble with prospects; that's why I (and a lot of us) tend to say ''take proven over unproven talent'' when facing such a dilemma.

    From the list I posted above, Patrick and Hischier could very well be the Hall and Seguin picks; 2 players that were really good and who stood out from the rest of their class without being tagged as franchise players. They could also turn out to be Yakupovs or J. Staals (bust players or not big point-producers respectively) but I doubt it. As I said, this is not an exact science and prospects can change drastically from 1 year to another, but from the info I listed above, the odds are in your favour of getting a good piece to build around.
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    Minors:
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    D: Simashev, Willander, Lambos
    G: Schmidt, Rodrigue, DiPietro, Gaudreau, McKay

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    Default Re: Guentzel/top pick

    Quote Originally Posted by Bass56 View Post
    Patrick and Hischier are still very young and raw. They have the skill and IQ to become really good at the next level but they are still kids at this point. It's always a gamble with prospects; that's why I (and a lot of us) tend to say ''take proven over unproven talent'' when facing such a dilemma.

    From the list I posted above, Patrick and Hischier could very well be the Hall and Seguin picks; 2 players that were really good and who stood out from the rest of their class without being tagged as franchise players. They could also turn out to be Yakupovs or J. Staals (bust players or not big point-producers respectively) but I doubt it. As I said, this is not an exact science and prospects can change drastically from 1 year to another, but from the info I listed above, the odds are in your favour of getting a good piece to build around.
    I very much agree with Bass overall here, but given Guentzel's very young age, his rapid development and the fact that he was a scoring force on every team he's played (and those teams were full of nobodys), I think his production bodes well for a sustained run. He has arrived and is a very good, smart player in his own right and he has NHL level speed. He won't be mistaken for Michael Grabner, Rick Nash or Dylan Larkin level north-south speed, but he is quick. I would take Guentzel now, even in a rebuild, rather than wait the 3 years before Patrick or Hischier come close in production.
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    Default Re: Guentzel/top pick

    I'll take pretzel all day long here
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    Default Re: Guentzel/top pick

    Hype train out of control IMO.
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