Limited Keeper - final spots, who to keep?

[lucafen4]

Coming to a close on year one of 12 team limited keeper -keep 12. My team collapsed down the stretch.

$130m Cap Start 4 C, LW, RW 6D, 2G
$16m in Cap space.
F Cats: G, A, +/-, PIM, SOG, GWG, PPP, SHP, H, BLK
G Cats: W, L, GAA, SV% SHO

As of right now, I have 10 keepers and debating the final two slots:
Forwards:
Ovie, Kadri, Kesler, Pacioretty, Wheeler

Defense:
Trouba, Shattenkirk, Faulk

Goalies:
Andersen, Talbot

Players under consideration for final two slots:
Carter (C) Schenn (C/LW), Reinhart (C/RW); Foligno (RW/LW) , Guentzel (C/LW), Radulov (LW/RW)

Other players of lesser consideration: Nurse (D), Eaves (RW), Vatrano (C,LW), Forbort, (D), Luongo (G)

5 - Minors - Tkachuk, Beauvillier, Dubois, Bean -- I made it through the season without calling them up, which gives them an 1 year contract extension. No GP limitation to call them up, >25 game to qualify (Cannot claim undrafted) Meaning I can leave Tkachuk for another 4yrs without penalty if I wished.

For my last two spots I was leaning toward Guentzel & Schenn/Carter, with Radulov as a secondary option

With such a high cap, I am not overly concerned with keeping high salary players, I'll have room.

Thoughts?

[MasterByte]

Schenn and Guentzel for me.

Phily has ALOT of weapons going into next year and will continue to get deadlier. He is nice for multi-cat too.
Guentzel seems a lock to keep playing with Crosby and is yet to disappoint.

I would stay away from Radulov and Carter. I just hate hitching my wagon to forwards over 30. In fact a guy like Carter I would intentionally not keep, assuming that his high goal count will cause him to be overdrafted next year, leaving one more valuable player for me to potentially grab with a later pick.

[Axeman33]

I am going to assume that's Nick Foligno and not Marcus.

Guentzel and Schenn would be my two from that list.

[lucafen4]

I am going to assume that's Nick Foligno and not Marcus.

Guentzel and Schenn would be my two from that list.

Yes Nick, although I have Marcus on my roster as well.. a really solid peripheral cat addition - but I'm not giving him any consideration . He's an easy late round re-draft though - basically this years Tom Wilson. Nick's 95 shots in 77 games freaks me out a lot.

[PenguinHunter]

if Radulov stays in the NHL then I would Keep him - But with recent Olympic news he might fly back to KHL.

Others I would think about:

Reinhart - Can he breakout and will Buffalo become a top contender as early as next year with their young talent?
Schenn - LW and C and I think Philly will be better.

[Eskimo Brother]

Guentzel and Reinhart would be my picks. Schenn a close third though.

[lucafen4]

Guentzel and Reinhart would be my picks. Schenn a close third though.

I've mucked around the idea of keeping Reinhart, before I added Guentzel off the wire, he was likely my 12th. I have a lot of really solid multi-cat players and that's the gap I see between Schenn & Reinhart. Schenn fills my cats - hits, pim, sog.

The hardest question to answer to swing me to Reinhart is - will he out point Schenn enough next season to offset the peripheral stats I am giving up. Schenn’s a55-60pt player to me with 65pt upside next season. Can Reinhart hit 70 nextyear? Is that enough to offset a potential5pt point difference and 160 hits?


Looking at their stat lines,
Schenn (left) Reinhart (right)
G – 25 – 17
A – 29 – 30
PIM – 38 – 8
SOG – 174 – 173
PPP – 28 – 17
HIT – 188 – 21

Obviously, I expect Reinhart to take a jump next year, his 3^rdfull year in the league.. just how much?

[CHunter]

Guentzel and Reinhart would be my picks. Schenn a close third though.

That would be my strategy too ^^^^