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Thread: Breakout/bounce back D man next year

  1. #46
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    Default Re: Breakout/bounce back D man next year

    Probably a long shot due to depth but I'm hoping Darnell Nurse

    * Edit January 2018 - looks like I was somewhat right here
    Last edited by jordandev; January 17, 2018 at 12:39 PM.

  2. #47
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    Default Re: Breakout/bounce back D man next year

    John Moore!

    He really started to emerge down the stretch and was running the PP by season's end. In only 63 games he potted 12 goals and there is room to grow still. What impressed me most is how often I would see him 3 on 3 overtime - clearly they like his offensive game and Hynes returning as coach can only help. Little in the way of competition for PP time and while in today's NHL if you are over 25 you have seemingly busted, he might be more of the classic D man hitting his prime at age 27.

    In my league, he had more points than "name" guys like Seabrook, Muzzin, Ekblad, Reilly as well young stars like Provonov, Morrissey, Chychrun, Hanifan.

    Below is an article illustrating how his offensive game has emerged and how he plans on continuing next year. You could do much worse than Moore off the wire.

    http://www.nj.com/devils/index.ssf/2...is_regain.html
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  3. #48
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    Default Re: Breakout/bounce back D man next year

    Morgan Rielly. 45-50 pts if he continues to get significant PP time.

  4. #49
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    Default Re: Breakout/bounce back D man next year

    Quote Originally Posted by BreadManPanarin View Post
    Morgan Rielly. 45-50 pts if he continues to get significant PP time.
    it took 4 pages and a month for someone to say Rielly...
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  5. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by lucafen4 View Post
    it took 4 pages and a month for someone to say Rielly...
    Yeah, he's not getting any love. I get that he hasn't set the world on fire in his first 4 years... But many people on here who constantly preach patience are down on Rielly, despite him only being 22 years and a month old.

    Dobber Prospects Grade:
    A "Rielly has all the tools to be a power play quarterback at the NHL ranks and is earning regular minutes now."

    Hockey Future Talent Score: 8.5/10 "His skating, passing, and puck skills are all top-notch, and he puts those skills to good use."

    Next Ones Draft Profile:
    Risk = 1/5 Reward = 5/5 Fantasy Hockey Potential:
    Offensive = 10/10 Defensive = 8.5/10
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    The talent and supporting cast are there. We'll see if he builds on this playoff coming out party next season, or regresses.

  6. #51
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    Default Re: Breakout/bounce back D man next year

    The issue with Rielly is that Babs does not play him on the power play. Just 0:58 on the power play last season. Less than 20 percent of the available opportunities. That's down from 1:50 in 2015-16 and 2:27 the year before that. Even with those elevated opportunities, he hadn't snagged the job and held it down. Granted, the team was terrible and didn't have the firepower it does now. But its fairly clear to see that Babcock prefers Gardiner and Zaitsev for offensive situations.

    He did give him some more chances during the playoffs which is promising, but we'll see.

    Until that PPTOI changes long-term , there's no way he sniffs 50 points. At best, I'd expect 25-28 EV points. Meaning 30-35ish would be the top level for him.

    **

    I'm curious about Brandon Montour. Could we end up seeing something similar in Anaheim where he becomes the more oft-used offensive defenseman over Theodore long term?

    Both being rookies, Theodore has seen more PP opportunites with 2:34 during the playoffs to Montour's 1:27. That said, Theodore has a bit more experience in the league and Carlyle likely trusts him a bit more.

    I don't think it'll be outrageous to expect a potential Shattenkirk-Pietrangelo situation occurring there down the line. Montour could a legit sleeper.
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  7. #52
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    Default Re: Breakout/bounce back D man next year

    Quote Originally Posted by lucafen4 View Post
    Is next year finally Theodore's opportunity for a full time gig?
    I think so- looks great in the post season when play is most intense aside from that one gaffe in game 6...

  8. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by Crazy Joe Davola View Post
    The issue with Rielly is that Babs does not play him on the power play. Just 0:58 on the power play last season. Less than 20 percent of the available opportunities. That's down from 1:50 in 2015-16 and 2:27 the year before that. Even with those elevated opportunities, he hadn't snagged the job and held it down. Granted, the team was terrible and didn't have the firepower it does now. But its fairly clear to see that Babcock prefers Gardiner and Zaitsev for offensive situations.

    He did give him some more chances during the playoffs which is promising, but we'll see.

    Until that PPTOI changes long-term , there's no way he sniffs 50 points. At best, I'd expect 25-28 EV points. Meaning 30-35ish would be the top level for him.
    Yes, I think it is well established that the prediction of Rielly being a breakout D Man next season is predicated entirely on him seizing the lion's share of PP time.

  9. #54
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    Default Re: Breakout/bounce back D man next year

    From what we're seeing, Babcock seems to wants Rielly to be his version of Marc-Edouard Vlasic or Alex Goligoski, so don't look for a breakout anytime soon.
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  10. #55
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    Default Re: Breakout/bounce back D man next year

    Trouba- If you take out his first ten games this season as he acclimated himself after the lockout- then he was basically on a 55 point pace. I know its cherry picking but he arguably has emerged. I watch a lot of jets games and he def passes the eye test...
    OEL- Is the real deal imo. Theres only so much upside in the dessert but theyre getting better. Im not sure we see a huge step back towards prominence but this season was a low water mark.
    Cant miss:
    Ghost- I need to find the article- but there was a brilliant post on Hockey writers (real deep dive look) that postulated Ghost had an enormous amount of upside and actually fared pretty well considering managements choice of deployment and handling of him. Ill try to find a link. Slam dunk imo...
    Prov- Hes sure fire but I think Ghost will be the go to on the pp. Regardless I think he hits 40-45 by next season.
    Yandle- I believe. Hes one dimensional but a healthy cats roster wilol do wonders for that one dimension he provides.
    Parayko- Only a matter of time before he unseats peach imho./

    Longer shots
    Morrissey- I think will be held back as he will be competing with Myers for PP time. I think BB and troubs get the lions share.
    Theodore- I like for a mini breakout. Establish himself with 30-35 points. SO much depth on the ducks blueline but he has the pedigree and is now currently proving he belongs there.
    Dumba- Always liked this kid. I dont know if it happens but Gurus vegas pick was genius. Hed be spoon fed all the pp1 time he could handle.
    Honkw- Clearly has to battle Esa- but hes got a solid 30 point floor imho with serious upside.
    McAvoy/Chabot- I know first year D are hard to predict and these guys are al;ready waaaaay gone in keeper leagues- but Id consider a late pick for either one of them (especially Mac) even in a one year league. Darkhorses both have healthy competition but there is top pairing upside here...

  11. #56
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    Default Re: Breakout/bounce back D man next year

    Yandle intrigues me.. I've got him as a non-keeper today, but he looks primed for a bounceback. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him push back into the 50's next season.

    My conundrum is: Do I keep Yandle and Saros while dropping Atkinson to fill a fourth D keeper spot or do I trade Saros for Ghost+ and keep both Ghost and Atkinson?


    Saros/Yandle vs. Ghost/Atkinson
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  12. #57
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    Default Re: Breakout/bounce back D man next year

    Quote Originally Posted by Crazy Joe Davola View Post
    Saros/Yandle vs. Ghost/Atkinson
    Ghost and Atkinson for me, and considering your goalie situation I don't think it is close.

  13. #58
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    Default Re: Breakout/bounce back D man next year

    Trouba is the defender to target next year that's draft cost will be a bargain compared to his output, if you are in roto with hits, shots and blocks he is so undervalued it's sad.
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  14. #59
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    The Magnificent One

    Default Re: Breakout/bounce back D man next year

    If you check out my most recent Goldipucks column (link in my sig), I highlighted Yandle as a player who was "too cold" (i.e., primed for a big bounceback).
    DobberHockey Senior Writer (columnist since 2012)
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  15. #60
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    Default Re: Breakout/bounce back D man next year

    Quote Originally Posted by BreadManPanarin View Post
    Ghost and Atkinson for me, and considering your goalie situation I don't think it is close.
    It definitely would appear that way. One thing to keep in mind is that youth is wildly coveted in my league, especially young goaltenders. We're a 12 team league that keeps 17 (204 players kept) and literally every young goalie is being kept outside of a guy like Shestyorkin or Soderstrom.

    I'm okay with moving Saros, i'm just not entirely convinced that Ghost is the right guy. Provorov scares me a tad, as does Philly's desire to 'rein' him in a bit.

    It is tempting though.
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