TOTALLY NEW to Owning Prospects - Can You Guys Help Me Evaluate?

[Rockies & Hockeys]

I just took over a full keeper team a couple days ago which isn't very good but seems to have a solid prospect cupboard. However, I don't know much about most of these guys, so can you dudes help me out regarding which ones may be future point-getters for me and which ones I can risk cutting loose in trade if need be? Thanks! I'll put them in rough order in my uneducated mind, but feel free to correct away!

W. Nylander
Puljajarvi
Provorov
D. Strome
Konecny
Keller
Kapanen
Svechnikov
Fiala
Crouse
Milano
Juulsen
(that's about all I can even attempt, haha)
Kempe
Lindblom
Nosek
Aube-Kubel
Claesson
Forbort
J. Larsson
Sanheim

Any dudes I should be proud of owning that I don't know at all? Especially from Kempe and lower? Thanks!

[StuntMan12]

W. Nylander - Future 60-70 pt scorer. probably ur best prospect or rookie
Puljajarvi - #2-3 top prospect on your team i believe
Provorov - high end defence prospect. could become a 50-60 pt scorer if all goes well
D. Strome - his value is fairly high, im not so high on him - his skating is his biggest weakness and with todays NHL suiting faster players more than ever I just don't see him being a huge impact player as some think he will be. i could be wrong but i'm biased towards skilled/good skating players. first thing i would do is trade strome but thats my preference. i definitely wouldnt give him away at a discount price though.
Konecny - decent prospect. he was doign well with philly , not sure what his stats are right now but overall i like his game
Keller - my favorite prospect out of the ones u listed. probably the most individually talented player of the (LAMIRELLO VOICE - TWO SIXTEEN) draft. Ill give him an A
Kapanen - has shown flashes of becoming a good nhl'er but im not so high on him.
Svechnikov - dont know too much about him honestly
Fiala - speedy player for nashville, from what i read he is the real deal. ill give him a B level grading
Milano - give him C +
Juulsen - i know F all about juulsen
Kempe - same with kempe
Lindblom - suppose to be a decent prospect out of europe. ive tried to snag him in all my leagues.
Nosek - WHO?
Aube-Kubel - doing terrible in his first year pro but then again he is a rookie
Claesson - dont knwo him
Forbort - hear about him but dont know him
J. Larsson - C level prospect
Sanheim - C + level prospect

[Sulla]

I'm guessing it's Tomas Nosek?

Sanheim may be under sold in Stuntman's reply as I wonder whether he makes the Flyers D next season - don't get me wrong he will be behind Ghost and Provorov but may develop into a top 4 d man

[Jouko-Pouko]

My order would be:
W. Nylander
Puljujarvi
Provorov
D. Strome
Keller
-- Tier 1 ends --
Konecny
Fiala
Svechnikov
Sanheim
-- Tier 2 ends --
Juulsen
J. Larsson
Kempe
Crouse
Milano
Kapanen
Aube-Kubel
-- Tier 3 ends --
Lindblom
Nosek
Claesson
Forbort

The biggest jump on that list is on Sanheim. Very good prospect who isn't all that far away from the NHL. The only issue with him is opportunity, being behind Provorov and Ghost for offensive minutes. My biggest drop on the list is Kapanen who I just don't like as a prospect. I would be selling him to a Toronto fan. I also wouldn't mind selling Crouse or Milano if someone is willing to pay a good price for them.

[fantasyhockeygeek]

I'm generally aligned with JP here, though I'd made some tweaks:

Puljujarvi - high upside, low risk, RW is nice.
Keller - highest upside, med risk, will be a winger in the NHL.
Provorov - looks like he'll be a complete defender; hype is high right now.
W. Nylander - Good upside, medium risk.
D. Strome - has REALLY underwhelmed since his draft and hasn't dominated kids like he should have. It seems he's now in the post-hype trough of disillusionment, so you're best to hold on for positive news.

-- Tier 1 ends --
Konecny
Fiala
Svechnikov
Sanheim
-- Tier 2 ends --
Juulsen
J. Larsson
Kempe
Crouse
Milano
Kapanen
Aube-Kubel
-- Tier 3 ends --
Lindblom
Nosek
Claesson
Forbort

I'd see Pulju and Keller as the core assets to build around. Not knowing much about the rest of your league/setup, I'd recommend you move some of these guys for assets that can help now. You say your team isn't that competitive, but with all the talent assembled on the farm I'd suspect your team is geared to be a perpetual rebuilder. So to your question about which ones to risk cutting loose, it's whichever ones give you the best return to make your team better.

[havanablast21]

[QUOTE=Jouko

Agree with Jouko and FHG here, however I'll actually and quite confidently drop Strome to Tier 2. I have little confidence the younger brother will end up being any better than Older Brother Ryan. There just seems to be something missing from both Strome's game. Definite lack of consistency and Dylan's inability to show Dominance on the World stage and even in his short stint with the big club. For a big bodied power forward, that doesn't bold well for me. Prove me wrong maybe but I think Dylan Strome is a guy you should be looking to move while his name still has some value.

[Jouko-Pouko]

Agree with Jouko and FHG here, however I'll actually and quite confidently drop Strome to Tier 2. I have little confidence the younger brother will end up being any better than Older Brother Ryan. There just seems to be something missing from both Strome's game. Definite lack of consistency and Dylan's inability to show Dominance on the World stage and even in his short stint with the big club. For a big bodied power forward, that doesn't bold well for me. Prove me wrong maybe but I think Dylan Strome is a guy you should be looking to move while his name still has some value.

It's funny how much emphasis some people are putting on 7 games at the WJC and totally ignoring the 32 OHL games where he has scored 72 points. That's 2.25 PPG which is just crazy. And I know he wasn't great at the WJC but he did end up getting 10 points in 7 games there, so it's not like he was a total bust there either. He didn't dominate the tournament as was expected but he was pretty productive. I think he just put too much pressure on himself because he was the Captain for Team Canada.

Some people are going crazy over DeBrincat's numbers in the OHL but he doesn't really come even close to Strome. The only other player in recent history with better PPG than Strome this year was McDavid. And the previous player before him was Patrick Kane. I'm definitely not trying to put Strome in the same group with those two players, I'm just saying that Strome's numbers are pretty amazing.

Strome is not a great skater but neither was John Tavares. And players like Joe Thornton have shown that you don't need to be very fast to be effective and productive. Players who are good with puck protection can play the puck possession style very well without being fast skaters. Strome needs to re-define his game for the NHL level but that's accurate for 90% of prospects. Not everyone in the NHL needs to be McDavid-fast, there are lots of different styles that can work very well.

[fantasyhockeygeek]

JP, the issue with Strome is his age-adjusted production. The kid just turned 20, in a league where the average age is around 18.5, and the draft-eligible prospects are in their 17-18 year. More telling to me would be an evaluation of the number of high scoring NHL players that played in junior in their 19-20 season, and I suspect that would be a pretty big indictment of Strome.

Check out the "Significant of Age" section here. Unfortunately the chart in the PPG Projections by Age section is a dead link, but the meat is (I've written it down before):

Junior Age	Junior PPG	NHL PPG @ Age 22	Implied Age-Correction Factor
16-17	2.0	1.5	0.75
17-18	2.0	1.0	0.50
18-19	2.0	0.7	0.35
19-20	2.0	0.5	0.25

Now for Strome, his PPG looks great, but adding in the age adjustment reveals the risk of which I'm quite wary:

Junior Age	Junior PPG	Calculated NHL Scoring @ Age 22 (PPG over 82 game pace)
16-17	0.65	40
17-18	1.72	70
18-19	1.91	55
19-20	2.25	46

Most prospects fall between their 17-18 year-old season and their 18-19 season. But that implies that Strome's upside is 70ish tops and there's risk on it.

Now compare that to Mitch Marner, taken one spot later in the same draft.

Junior Age	Junior PPG	Calculated NHL Scoring @ Age 22 (PPG over 82 game pace)
16-17	0.70	57
17-18	2.03	83
18-19	2.13	61
19-20	NHL	NHL

Marner is on a 70-point pace in the NHL at the age of 20.

Anyway, I recognize that this analysis is a bit contrived, but I think the message is fair: Strome's age-adjusted PPG is a red flag.

EDIT: Debrincat's PPG isn't anything to get excited about either, though his late birthday does make it a bit more intriguing. :P
EDIT2: Based on this methodology McDavid's 17-yr-old projection for 82 GP in the NHL was 104; Kane's was 98.

[havanablast21]

See svbetts!?

The thought of Strome still has value. Move him to a guy who still values him as a top tier Prospect (like Jouko seems to) and see if you can get back a proven NHL asset or higher regarded prospect. Just my Gut feeling and what I would do. I packaged him with stamkos and Ekblas and landed Matthews, Simmonds and Yandle at the beginning of the season.

[Jouko-Pouko]

JP, the issue with Strome is his age-adjusted production. The kid just turned 20, in a league where the average age is around 18.5, and the draft-eligible prospects are in their 17-18 year. More telling to me would be an evaluation of the number of high scoring NHL players that played in junior in their 19-20 season, and I suspect that would be a pretty big indictment of Strome.

Check out the "Significant of Age" section here. Unfortunately the chart in the PPG Projections by Age section is a dead link, but the meat is (I've written it down before):

Junior Age	Junior PPG	NHL PPG @ Age 22	Implied Age-Correction Factor
16-17	2.0	1.5	0.75
17-18	2.0	1.0	0.50
18-19	2.0	0.7	0.35
19-20	2.0	0.5	0.25

Now for Strome, his PPG looks great, but adding in the age adjustment reveals the risk of which I'm quite wary:

Junior Age	Junior PPG	Calculated NHL Scoring @ Age 22 (PPG over 82 game pace)
16-17	0.65	40
17-18	1.72	70
18-19	1.91	55
19-20	2.25	46

Most prospects fall between their 17-18 year-old season and their 18-19 season. But that implies that Strome's upside is 70ish tops and there's risk on it.

Now compare that to Mitch Marner, taken one spot later in the same draft.

Junior Age	Junior PPG	Calculated NHL Scoring @ Age 22 (PPG over 82 game pace)
16-17	0.70	57
17-18	2.03	83
18-19	2.13	61
19-20	NHL	NHL

Marner is on a 70-point pace in the NHL at the age of 20.

Anyway, I recognize that this analysis is a bit contrived, but I think the message is fair: Strome's age-adjusted PPG is a red flag.

EDIT: Debrincat's PPG isn't anything to get excited about either, though his late birthday does make it a bit more intriguing. :P
EDIT2: Based on this methodology McDavid's 17-yr-old projection for 82 GP in the NHL was 104; Kane's was 98.

First of all, thanks for spending the time on this. Your posts are always very informative.

I haven't looked into those numbers but my guess is that the drop-off after age 18 is too harsh because many top players leave junior hockey at that point. I think the Marner example you showed is very telling: Did Marner regress as a player after he was drafted? He went from 83 points to 61 points (age adjusted). Was that a big red flag on Marner? I don't remember anyone talking about that. If Strome were to continue even at same pace with that age adjusted number, he would have needed to score 2.46 the next season and 3.44 this season. No one is scoring those kind of numbers, that's just unrealistic.

The problem is that most top prospects like Strome leave junior hockey after a strong season like he had as 17-18 but Strome still needed time to work on his game (most importantly skating). I just don't think there are many comparables to him in the recent history, and that's skewing the data.

What I like to see from prospects in junior hockey is progression. If they keep hitting the same PPG year after year, then that's a big red flag for me. Strome has gone from 1.72 to 1.91 to 2.25. That is exactly what I want to see from prospects. I'm not saying the 70 point upside is incorrect (although I think it's slightly higher) but I'm not buying that he's been regressing every year after he was drafted. Or that his upside has gone down every year since.

Let's take Lawson Crouse as an example. Is it better for his upside that he's playing small minutes in the NHL as a teenager? Strome could have done the same but Arizona felt like he's better off in junior. Does that take something away from Strome's upside? I just don't see how it could.

The NHL should get rid of that stupid CHL agreement so that players like Strome could play in the AHL when they're ready for it. Strome could have made the jump to the AHL straight from the draft, and I think most would still consider him a top prospect right now if that was true. It's just sad that players like him have to go back to junior, destroy the competition there and still get questioned if they're any good.

[Axeman33]

My order would be:
W. Nylander
Puljujarvi
Provorov
D. Strome
Keller
-- Tier 1 ends --
Konecny
Fiala
Svechnikov
Sanheim
-- Tier 2 ends --
Juulsen
J. Larsson
Kempe
Crouse
Milano
Kapanen
Aube-Kubel
-- Tier 3 ends --
Lindblom
Nosek
Claesson
Forbort

The biggest jump on that list is on Sanheim. Very good prospect who isn't all that far away from the NHL. The only issue with him is opportunity, being behind Provorov and Ghost for offensive minutes. My biggest drop on the list is Kapanen who I just don't like as a prospect. I would be selling him to a Toronto fan. I also wouldn't mind selling Crouse or Milano if someone is willing to pay a good price for them.

I like this list but the only change I would make is swapping Lindblom with Crouse. I prefer Lindbloms upside to Crouse's. Lindblom to the middle of tier 2 and Crouse to the top of tier 3 for me. I'd probably move Juulsen down to the bottom of tier 2. I dont see him offering much for fantasy purposes but could turn out to be a solid real-life NHL Dman long-term.

[STONE.]

Whoa. Getting Jouko-Pouko and FHG responding to a thread on prospects! That's gold!

Totally agree on the Sanheim adjustment -- he's doing very solidly in the AHL as a rookie and his floor is high.
Ceiling isn't as high, but still a decent own.

[fantasyhockeygeek]

I haven't looked into those numbers but my guess is that the drop-off after age 18 is too harsh because many top players leave junior hockey at that point.

That's an insightful observation.

I generally give the most creedence to the 17-year-old junior season for just that reason. What it does demonstrate to me is that someone who doesn't produce a lot in their 17-18 season needs to produce like a banshee in their 18-19 or 19-20 seasons to get my attention!

[Jouko-Pouko]

I generally give the most creedence to the 17-year-old junior season for just that reason. What it does demonstrate to me is that someone who doesn't produce a lot in their 17-18 season needs to produce like a banshee in their 18-19 or 19-20 seasons to get my attention!

I totally agree with that statement. My gut feeling is that if you produce really well during your age 17-18 season, there's really nothing you can do at junior level to keep up with the expectations. You have to jump to the next level or people will start questioning your upside. And it's really unfortunate players cannot move on to the AHL at that point (unless they were loaned from their European club to the CHL which totally makes sense ). But if you didn't produce much during your draft year, then you better do something amazing the year after to get noticed.

Good discussion! I will now consider moving Strome behind Keller on my rankings... But that's as far as I'm willing to move him!

[Mr. Guru]

And it's really unfortunate players cannot move on to the AHL at that point

Great discussion.

I'll only chip in and say it's not unfortunate for the CHL. For the player/NHL team, yes unfortunate. I think a league that produces so many NHLers deserves some kickback. This is their kickback.

If Arizona paid Erie, I bet the CHL would be on board with something like that.