Nikita Gusev: Panarin 2.0?

[loco man]

71 points this year (top 5) and currently 9 points in 7 playoff games (record for points in consecutive games I believe). He had stated in 2015 that he plans on coming to the NHL one day and is buddies with Kucherov.

http://www.rawcharge.com/2015/11/10/...-bay-lightning

"Of course I have such plans. My best friend Nikita Kucherov, with whom I talk every day, wants me to join him overseas, but earlier I could not. He tells me that [in North America] there is a completely different environment and hockey also is not the same. But every player has his own goals and destiny. Nikita is doing great there, and I?m very happy for him."

He has one year left on his contract and not sure if there is a buy out option, but given the success of Panarin and Radulov, as well as the possibility of a Kovalchuk return, hoping that this guy might be the next gem to come out of nowhere and land a top six role in the NHL.

Hard to find any recent information regarding his plans, curious if anyone has some insight.


Thanks

[Jouko-Pouko]

Next Panarin? No. Possible top-9 forward in the NHL? Yes.

All KHL contracts can be bought out but they have to be bought out by the player himself; I think player needs to play 1/2 or 2/3 of the contract's remaining value to the team. That happens very rarely because it gets very expensive for the player. Especially if they have to sign ELC like Gusev does, so he doesn't earn that much in the NHL.

[Sulla]

He may surprise but I don't pay that sort of price for him... If I can add him for nothing or very little then definitely worth a speculative add otherwise I let someone else take the punt

[StuntMan12]

The next Panarin? It's possible but if he came over next season I could see him fetching 60~ pts. Incredibly talented forward and could slot in the top 6 in pretty well any team in the NHL I believe. There is no doubt he is skilled, the question is how well will his game translate to the NHL? Like Kucherov has told Gusev, that it's a different game here. Some players can handle it and adjust very quickly, I think Gusev can. He is on the smallish side but has amazing agility, great hands, thinks the game at a very high level, and plays with a tonne of heart comparable to Mats Zuccarello.

If all goes well I could see him hitting 70+ pts in year 2-3 of him coming over. Again he could quite possibly be on a line with emerging superstar Nikita Kucherov who (if he played 82 games) is on pace for 92 points.

I did read that he wanted to have one big year before he came to the NHL just to make sure he was ready enough to make the jump. One can only hope this seasons totals are what makes him feel ready to play as early as next season. I've bought him in every league I'm in and have no regrets.

[Sulla]

That of the one big season, and the 'threat' of going to the NHL, lands him a mega deal in the KHL....

[rataylor22]

Next Panarin? No. Possible top-9 forward in the NHL? Yes.

All KHL contracts can be bought out but they have to be bought out by the player himself; I think player needs to play 1/2 or 2/3 of the contract's remaining value to the team. That happens very rarely because it gets very expensive for the player. Especially if they have to sign ELC like Gusev does, so he doesn't earn that much in the NHL.

Juoko probably is able to watch more Gusev games than most people on the forums. He doesn't think he will have a Panarin-like impact and I trust his opinion on it. I'd still buy Gusev in a keeper league for the right price (I traded Bonino for Gusev, for example), but I wouldn't pay a Panarin-like price for him

[lucafen4]

Why does it seem that every player coming over from the KHL that's early 20's gets called, 'The Next Panarin' ?

[ericdaoust]

I'm on board with believing Gusev will come over and be productive. I don't like the Panarin comparison though. It just sets the bar too high. What Panarin has done is special.

[rataylor22]

Why does it seem that every player coming over from the KHL that's early 20's gets called, 'The Next Panarin' ?

People love comparisons over original opinions.

[The Iron Sheik]

he's way too small for me to project anything substantial for him at this point in time.

[deantime419]

Panarin is a little ambitious.
Upside: Zuccarello
Worst-case: Omark

[Jouko-Pouko]

Panarin is a little ambitious.
Upside: Zuccarello
Worst-case: Omark

I really like the Zuccarello comparison. Zuccarello's career average in the NHL is 55 points over 82 games, and he's been around 60 points twice now. I believe Gusev could reach similar numbers if his transition goes well.

EDIT: Just to clarify, I like the Zuccarello comparison for upside/point totals, not as stylistic comparison. Good points from Schneider about that.

But Gusev will be 26 when his current KHL contract ends. If he plays one more year in the KHL after that, he could come to the NHL as UFA which means more money for him. He would get a lot of money from the KHL during that one year, so signing an ELC might not interest him all that much at that point when he's only one year away from UFA.

[Schneider]

Panarin is a little ambitious.
Upside: Zuccarello
Worst-case: Omark

I don't know, I think Panarin comparisons are lazy, but the comparison to Zuccarello is just as lazy. For one, Zuccarello is only 5'7; Gusev is 5'10-5'11. One guy is quite small for the NHL, the other is just not quite ideal. Zuccarello is primarily a playmaker, and his poor shot makes him easier to defend as his threat is not a dual one. Gusev is equal parts the sniper as he is a playmaker. Finally, Zuccarello has never put up the numbers Gusev has put up in the KHL. In Zucc's KHL season (age 25-26), he put up .64PPG. This year (age 24-25), Gusev is putting up 1.24PPG. For comparisons sake, Panarin put up 1.15PPG in his last KHL season (age 23-24).

The bigger issue I have with the Panarin comparison is that even if Gusev comes over to NA, he won't see the same kind of usage that Panarin has had. Panarin is a permanent linemate with Kane, and is the primary shooter on that 1st PP unit with Kane. Gusev could play with Kucherov, but it seems like there are better linemates to put with Kucherov. Gusev will not be knocking off Stamkos as the right handed shooter on the 1st PP unit. Hell, the Tampa PP might be better off with Drouin playing in Stamkos' spot, in which case, Stamkos gets bumped off that 1st unit. The opportunity to step into a prime producing position is not there for Gusev like it was for Panarin.

That being said, I wouldn't sleep on Gusev or knock him for his size. I can't believe people in this day and age are still doing that. It will shock you to see how good Gusev is, it's all a matter of opportunity.

[The Iron Sheik]

I don't know, I think Panarin comparisons are lazy, but the comparison to Zuccarello is just as lazy. For one, Zuccarello is only 5'7; Gusev is 5'10-5'11. One guy is quite small for the NHL, the other is just not quite ideal. Zuccarello is primarily a playmaker, and his poor shot makes him easier to defend as his threat is not a dual one. Gusev is equal parts the sniper as he is a playmaker. Finally, Zuccarello has never put up the numbers Gusev has put up in the KHL. In Zucc's KHL season (age 25-26), he put up .64PPG. This year (age 24-25), Gusev is putting up 1.24PPG. For comparisons sake, Panarin put up 1.15PPG in his last KHL season (age 23-24).

The bigger issue I have with the Panarin comparison is that even if Gusev comes over to NA, he won't see the same kind of usage that Panarin has had. Panarin is a permanent linemate with Kane, and is the primary shooter on that 1st PP unit with Kane. Gusev could play with Kucherov, but it seems like there are better linemates to put with Kucherov. Gusev will not be knocking off Stamkos as the right handed shooter on the 1st PP unit. Hell, the Tampa PP might be better off with Drouin playing in Stamkos' spot, in which case, Stamkos gets bumped off that 1st unit. The opportunity to step into a prime producing position is not there for Gusev like it was for Panarin.

That being said, I wouldn't sleep on Gusev or knock him for his size. I can't believe people in this day and age are still doing that. It will shock you to see how good Gusev is, it's all a matter of opportunity.

it will probably shock you too because I doubt you have seen him play at all in the KHL....

[Axeman33]

Panarin is a little ambitious.
Upside: Zuccarello
Worst-case: Omark

Worst case, he doesn't come over at all and all those who dealt for him are left holding the bag. Certainly not something that is out of the question.