Hellebuyck Tonight?

[Schneider]

I fear you are probably right.

What is worse? Going down swinging and losing the goalie stats because Hellebuyck blew up and got yanked after giving up 5, or losing the goalie stats because I sat him and then didn't end up with 3 starts? I guess I need to weigh those two possibilities and decide which is the lesser evil.

I would probably be the MOST upset if I sat Hellebuyck, he gave up 2 goals or less, and then I ended up not getting 3 starts because all 3 of my guys happen to sit on Saturday.

No, no, you are not in the "go down swinging" scenario at all. You think that both Price and Quick will have good weeks, but that's why they play the games. He only has one start, just like you. I find it highly likely that you'll get your 3 starts this week. No b2b situations among your goalies, Vasy is hot and they have been riding Hellebuyck hard since Pavel3c went down.

You can also think of it this way from a risk-reward standpoint: Worst case scenario is Hellebuyck gets pulled after allowing 5 goals, which was only a week ago. A good scenario for you is allowing 2 goals...to me, it's just not worth it because the upside isn't even that high. Helle-risky.

Hellebuyck allowed 4 goals in the last meeting vs Pittsburgh this year. Hellebuyck also has a career shutout against Pittsburgh, but that was in the Mike Johnston era.

[j0hn_d0e]

I do remember... he gave up four goals

yea, four goals but you know what exactly happened. He actually played well + curently hes on a roll.

Im not scared to play him


edit: but thats me... in your case, with your options after tonight
I would sit him.

[BreadManPanarin]

No, no, you are not in the "go down swinging" scenario at all. You think that both Price and Quick will have good weeks, but that's why they play the games. He only has one start, just like you. I find it highly likely that you'll get your 3 starts this week. No b2b situations among your goalies, Vasy is hot and they have been riding Hellebuyck hard since Pavel3c went down.

You can also think of it this way from a risk-reward standpoint: Worst case scenario is Hellebuyck gets pulled after allowing 5 goals, which was only a week ago. A good scenario for you is allowing 2 goals...to me, it's just not worth it because the upside isn't even that high. Helle-risky.

Hellebuyck allowed 4 goals in the last meeting vs Pittsburgh this year. Hellebuyck also has a career shutout against Pittsburgh, but that was in the Mike Johnston era.

OK, I'm sold. I'm sitting him.

bigs_biggie and everyone else, I would play him if I were you. He's bound to have a huge game on my bench.

[bigs_biggie]

He lasted half the game. Only gave up 5. I also benched him.

[BreadManPanarin]

Hope nobody played him based on the idea that I always do the wrong thing. Exception to the rule here lol

[hockeyrobot]

Im a terrible person.

There used to be a time when Pittsburgh scoring 5 goals meant Sid had 3 points....

[j0hn_d0e]

It's official - starting Hellebuyck was the biggest mistake I have made this season. I know he has a potential to be a solid starter in this league BUT I will never draft this guy again! Even if he become a very good starter I feel that he will still be inconsistent. I just can't trust a guy like that...

[BreadManPanarin]

It's official - starting Hellebuyck was the biggest mistake I have made this season. I know he has a potential to be a solid starter in this league BUT I will never draft this guy again! Even if he become a very good starter I feel that he will still be inconsistent. I just can't trust a guy like that...

That seems like a bit of an overreaction, considering we knew that this outcome was possible, if not probable. The known issue with hellebuyck is his inconsistency, and if he ever gets that figured out then he'll be very draftable.

[Wonko]

It's official - starting Hellebuyck was the biggest mistake I have made this season. I know he has a potential to be a solid starter in this league BUT I will never draft this guy again! Even if he become a very good starter I feel that he will still be inconsistent. I just can't trust a guy like that...

He's young. I watched the game. One goal came at 5 on 3. Couple others on the PP. Winnipeg fell apart for a stretch. I would not hang all 5 goals on Hell Boy. Mostly I would hang the 5 goals on a young Winnipeg squad that came unravelled for a stretch mixed with a little bad puck luck.

[Instant Karma]

When it comes to this type of decision, I tend to make it with this rationale:

"Am I going to feel like an idiot tomorrow if..."

There's nothing remotely scientific or strategic about it whatsoever, but it does wonders for your peace of mind. And I employed it in this instance yesterday.

I asked myself "If I start Hellboy tonight when I don't absolutely have to, and he blows my percentages out of the water, am I going to feel like a total fool in the morning?" and the answer was "Almost certainly yes, you will."

So, I put him on the bench.

Now, say he had had a quality start, sure I would have been bummed a bit about losing that, but I wouldn't have felt like an idiot for doing so.

[BreadManPanarin]

When it comes to this type of decision, I tend to make it with this rationale:

"Am I going to feel like an idiot tomorrow if..."

There's nothing remotely scientific or strategic about it whatsoever, but it does wonders for your peace of mind. And I employed it in this instance yesterday.

Yeah, after thinking about it hard and reviewing all of the responses on this thread, that is basically how I came to the decision to sit him as well.

Now, say he had had a quality start, sure I would have been bummed a bit about losing that, but I wouldn't have felt like an idiot for doing so.

And you would be somewhat happy still seeing that he had played well against a tough adversary, thus increasing your confidence in him going forward.

Ultimately sitting him for a good performance was less objectionable than starting him for a terrible performance.

[j0hn_d0e]

That seems like a bit of an overreaction, considering we knew that this outcome was possible, if not probable. The known issue with hellebuyck is his inconsistency, and if he ever gets that figured out then he'll be very draftable.

He's young. I watched the game. One goal came at 5 on 3. Couple others on the PP. Winnipeg fell apart for a stretch. I would not hang all 5 goals on Hell Boy. Mostly I would hang the 5 goals on a young Winnipeg squad that came unravelled for a stretch mixed with a little bad puck luck.

I actually agree with you, guys
I don't blame Hellebuyck for the lost, i don't blame him for all of the goals
but his inconsistancy is brutal and I can't caught a break whole season....

When it comes to this type of decision, I tend to make it with this rationale:

"Am I going to feel like an idiot tomorrow if..."

There's nothing remotely scientific or strategic about it whatsoever, but it does wonders for your peace of mind. And I employed it in this instance yesterday.

I asked myself "If I start Hellboy tonight when I don't absolutely have to, and he blows my percentages out of the water, am I going to feel like a total fool in the morning?" and the answer was "Almost certainly yes, you will."

So, I put him on the bench.

Now, say he had had a quality start, sure I would have been bummed a bit about losing that, but I wouldn't have felt like an idiot for doing so.

I have the exact same process of thinking

And you would be somewhat happy still seeing that he had played well against a tough adversary, thus increasing your confidence in him going forward.

True!

Ultimately sitting him for a good performance was less objectionable than starting him for a terrible performance.

but this is my process of thinking - I will feel terrible if I start a goalie and he gets destroyed BUT I will feel way worse if I sit a goalie and he gets a shutout.

What's the point to have a starting goalie and you are scared to start him(the case yesterday is exception. Hellboy against the best team in the league)
Last week I had a lead in all 4 goalie categories and saturday i decided to sit all of my goalies!(all 3 were confirmed) I was a little worried because the GAA was very close.. so the result:

Vasilevskiy won the game GAA-0.92 .969
Price won the game GAA 1.00 .957
Hellebuyck won the game GAA 1.00 .963

.......after all i still won all 4 categories BUT the feeling was way worse than the feeling yesterday!

[BreadManPanarin]

but this is my process of thinking - I will feel terrible if I start a goalie and he gets destroyed BUT I will feel way worse if I sit a goalie and he gets a shutout.

I get that... but what were the odds of Hellebuyck shutting out the Penguins vs. the odds of him getting blown out by them? Maybe <10% chance of a shutout and >40% chance of him getting blown out based on what we've seen so far this year? The risk was ultimately too much for me.

[j0hn_d0e]

I get that... but what were the odds of Hellebuyck shutting out the Penguins vs. the odds of him getting blown out by them? Maybe <10% chance of a shutout and >40% chance of him getting blown out based on what we've seen so far this year? The risk was ultimately too much for me.

Yea, it was a big risk.. I was hoping for a win. Evan a 3-2 or 4-3 win would be nice
but that's because in my league one stat is Saves and I already had a big lead in the categories(Vasilevskiy-0.94.971,Hellboy 2.07-.931 Price 0.98-.964)

[Instant Karma]

but this is my process of thinking - I will feel terrible if I start a goalie and he gets destroyed BUT I will feel way worse if I sit a goalie and he gets a shutout.

Well, I suppose my response to this is that you shouldn't "feel way worse", or for that matter even feel that bad, as you made what was the logical decision at the time. There's no reason you should find cause for regret. Unfortunately, hindsight is always 20-20.

Of course, much of this depends on whether you happen to be leading or trailing at the time and by how much. If you're trailing your opponent by a substantial margin, then maybe you bite the bullet and live with the outcome.

I get that... but what were the odds of Hellebuyck shutting out the Penguins vs. the odds of him getting blown out by them? Maybe <10% chance of a shutout and >40% chance of him getting blown out based on what we've seen so far this year? The risk was ultimately too much for me.

Exactly. Hellboy shutting out the Pens, while not impossible by any stretch, I expect we can all agree was not the probable outcome. And ultimately this was shown to be the proper assessment.