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Thread: W.Nylander dilemma

  1. #1
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    Dobber Sports Initiate

    Default W.Nylander dilemma

    For the league in my signature.

    I am in rebuild mode, so I'm going to miss the main playoffs. I have W.Nylander in my farm team (both Nylanders actually, but this only has to do with the elder), which allows me to keep him freely as long as I like (but his points don't count in my matchups).

    Our loser playoffs start next week. The way this works is that the higher you finish in the loser playoffs, the better your odds for a higher draft rank : winner gets 8 balls, runner up gets 7 and so on, with the last place getting only 1 ball, all the top 8 draft ranks are decided by lottery. Those who make the main playoffs can draft no higher than 9th overall. The earlier 1st round picks are usually used to pick prospects selected during the previous NHL draft (So think Patrick, Hischier, etc...).

    I am currently wondering if I should move Nylander up to my main roster for the loser playoffs.

    If I did this, I would likely drop A.Shaw or C.Jarnkrok and fill the freed up farm team slot with someone like J.Schmaltz, J.Walman, C.Carrick or sone other equivalent prospect. Nylander would become one of my best forwards if not the best right away, thus improving my odds of getting a better 1st round pick. The downside is that if I move Nylander up, he'll be one of my 4 keepers and he'll cost me 5$ for next year. (Basically, the time when he's no longer a bargain is moved a year closer)

    If I leave Nylander in my farm team, I can decide to move him up next year only and in this case he'll cost me zero for next year (and 5$ the year after, and so on). On the down side, my odds of having a great 1st round pick are reduced.

    I don't really know which extra player I'd keep if Nylander stays in my farm team... As of now, my keepers would probably be Marchessault, Zaitsev, one of my goalies and... who knows? (note, players who are kept have their price go up by 5$ the next year, which is why I wouldn't keep players like Zuccarello or Zetterberg; I can get them or an equivalent player for the same price at auction next year).

    So, would moving Nylander up be a good idea?

    Thanks!
    On a fantasy hockey break.

  2. #2
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    Dobber Sports Wizard

    Default Re: W.Nylander dilemma

    Improving your odds would be nice but if you're not a contender next year either, then starting the salary increase for Nylander probably isn't worth it because this draft doesn't have the needed superstar power. If you're sure promoting Nylander gives you a top-2 pick, then I think it would be worth it. But otherwise I would probably think about the long-term gain of having a cheap Nylander on your roster for years to come.

  3. #3
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    Dobber Sports Master

    Default Re: W.Nylander dilemma

    Quote Originally Posted by Jouko-Pouko View Post
    Improving your odds would be nice but if you're not a contender next year either, then starting the salary increase for Nylander probably isn't worth it because this draft doesn't have the needed superstar power. If you're sure promoting Nylander gives you a top-2 pick, then I think it would be worth it. But otherwise I would probably think about the long-term gain of having a cheap Nylander on your roster for years to come.
    The key word is "sure". How sure are you to get a top two pick? Anything less than 99% and I'm with Jouko.

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  4. #4
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    The Great One

    Default Re: W.Nylander dilemma

    I agree with the above. Even if you win the "loser pool", all that does is give you better odds in the draft lottery. Nobody is guaranteed the top-2 pick. Looking at your team, I'd just keep Nylander in the minors. You'll be in the lottery for a top-2 pick anyways, just lower odds.

  5. #5
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    Dobber Sports Initiate

    Default Re: W.Nylander dilemma

    Thanks guys!

    I wrote this post pretty much convinced that I would move Nylander up, but you guys are convincing me otherwise. You are right though, even if I win the loser playoffs, there's no guaranty on my selection rank, just the odds of getting a higher pick.
    On a fantasy hockey break.

  6. #6
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    Dobber Sports Initiate

    Default Re: W.Nylander dilemma

    Update :

    I listened to your advice and kept Nylander on my farm team. If I had moved him up, it wouldn't have changed a thing as of now, since I won my first two rounds and will now play the finals this week. I'm now guaranteed either 7 or 8 lottery balls out of 36, depending on the outcome of next week's matchup.

    Thank you all very much for convincing me to keep Nylander in my farm team!
    On a fantasy hockey break.

  7. #7
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    Dobber Sports Initiate

    Default Re: W.Nylander dilemma

    Sorry for the bump, but here's the final update :

    Managed to win the loser playoffs without moving Nylander up. Draft lottery was today, and I won. So I got the 1st overall pick in the next draft without having to move Nylander up.

    Thank you all so much again for convincing me to keep Nylander in my farm team!

    Now I begin my summer-long question : do I take Hischier or Patrick? lol (leaning towards Hischier at this point, but I'll have all summer to second-guess myself, especially after the NHL draft)
    On a fantasy hockey break.

  8. #8
    Moses's Avatar
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    Dobber Sports Genius

    Default Re: W.Nylander dilemma

    LOVE THE BUMP!

    Well played Potatoeman. Thanks for the update. Congrats on the the "win"!
    - I said... "God damn this tablet is heavy!"

  9. #9
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    The Great One

    Default Re: W.Nylander dilemma

    Congrats on the "loser" pool victory, and the good lottery fortune. Also, congrats re: Nico

    Even had you not been so fortunate, I believe you played this right. The implications of brining up Nylander (keeper wise, and cost wise) just didn't make sense to me.

    Best of luck with your team.

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