Expansion draft, NMC and buyouts

[Jouko-Pouko]

One expansion draft related thing I haven't seen talked about much: buyouts. Do teams have the option to buy out toxic contracts they would otherwise have to protect?

Teams have to submit their protection list on June 17th. The buyout window starts on June 15th or 48 hours after the Cup is awarded, whichever is later. I think the Cup was awarded on June 12th last year but I couldn't find confirmation for that. Either way, it looks like it's possible that teams would have enough time to use a quick buyout before submitting their protection list. Having a no-movement clause (NMC) doesn't mean you cannot be bought out.

Which players could be considered for this quick buyout to avoid protecting them? The full list of players who have to be protected can be found from here. From that list, I think these players would get consideration.

Kevin Bieksa, D - ANA
Scott Hartnell, LW - CBJ
Francois Beauchemin, D - COL
Dan Girardi, D - NYR
Ryan Callahan, RW - TBL
Valtteri Filppula, C - TBL
Tobias Enstrom, D - WPG

(I believe the NHL will exclude Clarkson, Clowe and Horton from the entire process because they haven't been able to play for a long time. They also couldn't be bought out while they're injured.)

Colorado isn't really in a position to lose anyone significant anyways, so I doubt they consider buying out Beauchemin and therefore I'll focus more on the other names there.

Kevin Bieksa - if the Ducks don't buy him out, they would have to expose two of Rakell, Silfverberg or Manson. But if they buy out Bieksa, they would only have to expose one of them. (Or they could trade Fowler or Vatanen and protect them all.) What makes this situation difficult is that Bieksa is signed to 35+ contract, meaning his entire $4M cap hit would still count against the cap if they buy him out. But even then, do they really want to lose Rakell or Silfverberg? Of course they could also trade Fowler or Vatanen and only lose Manson then but what kind of return would they get when other teams know they're desperate? They could also expose both Vatanen and Manson and keep all the forwards they want.

Scott Hartnell - if the Blue Jackets would buy out Hartnell, they could protect William Karlsson or Josh Anderson instead. And that's assuming the NHL excludes Clarkson from this whole thing. If they don't, then without a Hartnell buyout the Blue Jackets would likely lose Boone Jenner. Hartnell has two years at $4.75M left on his contract, and the buyout cap hit would be: $1.5M, $3M, $1.25M and $1.25M.

Dan Girardi - the Rangers have so many good forwards that they can only protect 3 D-men. Both Staal and Girardi have NMC and McDonagh is definitely being protected, so that means they will have to expose Nick Holden who has been pretty great this season. But because Girardi has 3 more years at $5.5M left, his buyout would be pretty bad: $2.61M, $3.61M, $3.61M, $1.11M, $1.11M, $1.11M. But since the Rangers have so much money to spend, maybe they would consider this?

Ryan Callahan and Valtteri Filppula - keeping these two would mean exposing two of Killorn, Johnson, Palat or Namestnikov. Callahan has 3 more years at $5.8M left, so that's impossible to trade and probably too much to buy out. But Filppula only has 1 year left at $5M, so it's possible he gets traded. But if that doesn't happen, then a buyout wouldn't be a bad option either. His buyout cap hit would only be $1.67M for two years, and that way the Lightning could choose which one forward to expose from that list.

Tobias Enstrom - if the Jets don't buy him out, they could only protect one of Lowry, Armia or Dano. But if they buy him out, they could protect all of them and also Perreault. Enstrom only has 1 year at $5.75M left, so his buyout cap hit would only be $2.68M and $1.53M.

What do you guys think, will teams be able to use a buyout on toxic contracts and if they are, would they? Of course they can also ask these players to waive their NMC but I'm not sure how many of them would actually do that. For example, Filppula would only lose $1.67M of actual salary with a buyout. He would most likely get at least $2M per year on a new contract, so he could actually earn more money and choose his new destination in July. Similar story with Bieksa who would only need to get more than $1.33M on his new contract to make net profit. Accepting a buyout might actually be more profitable for the players who still have something left.

[Doug Glatt]

Good stuff J-P. Food for thought. Anaheim has to do something about their D corps its too crowded. Was very surprised Dallas didnt take the opportunity to get a solid D off Anaheim in the Eaves trade. Opportunity missed IMO. Wouldnt be surprised to see someone take Hartnell before the deadline, with maybe Philly retaining a small amount of cap hit. Could definitely see Enstrom bought out. Morrissey is already doing fine with big minutes, then maybe they trade Myers for a left shooting D. I think you almost have to buy Callahan out, you cant afford a 5.8M player who misses most of the games. I dont think Girardi is bought out. Depends on how much of a cap hit Shattenkirk is going to cost them.

[Jouko-Pouko]

Good stuff J-P. Food for thought. Anaheim has to do something about their D corps its too crowded. Was very surprised Dallas didnt take the opportunity to get a solid D off Anaheim in the Eaves trade. Opportunity missed IMO. Wouldnt be surprised to see someone take Hartnell before the deadline, with maybe Philly retaining a small amount of cap hit. Could definitely see Enstrom bought out. Morrissey is already doing fine with big minutes, then maybe they trade Myers for a left shooting D. I think you almost have to buy Callahan out, you cant afford a 5.8M player who misses most of the games. I dont think Girardi is bought out. Depends on how much of a cap hit Shattenkirk is going to cost them.

I think Anaheim has made it clear that they won't move any of their D-men this season. Fowler would be a perfect fit in Dallas but the Ducks might be thinking about keeping him long-term now considering the season he's had. (Fowler would be a perfect fit in Winnipeg as well. Lots of teams would love to have him.)

Two more years of Hartnell at $4.75M and you would have to protect him in the expansion draft? I don't see many takers for him. And remember, he plays for Columbus nowadays, not Philly anymore.

I agree about Callahan but his buyout cap hit would be pretty bad:
$1,066,667
$2,866,667
$2,866,667
$1,766,667
$1,766,667
$1,766,667

Tampa would be paying him a total of $10.6M to not play for them anymore. Most team owners wouldn't like the sound of that. They would only have $5.3M over 3 years to replace him as a player. Could they find a replacement at $1.77M AAV? Possibly but not sure about that. Anything above that, and the owner is paying extra. Writing those numbers on Dobber Forum is easy but writing them on a check is much harder.

Shattenkirk will get at least $6M, possibly even $7M. The Rangers cannot afford that without moving someone out.

[Jouko-Pouko]

I agree about Callahan but his buyout cap hit would be pretty bad:
$1,066,667
$2,866,667
$2,866,667
$1,766,667
$1,766,667
$1,766,667

Tampa would be paying him a total of $10.6M to not play for them anymore. Most team owners wouldn't like the sound of that. They would only have $5.3M over 3 years to replace him as a player. Could they find a replacement at $1.77M AAV? Possibly but not sure about that. Anything above that, and the owner is paying extra. Writing those numbers on Dobber Forum is easy but writing them on a check is much harder.

Now that Filppula is traded, the Callahan buyout would make more sense. If Tampa does that, they could protect all their top forwards: Stamkos, Kucherov, Drouin, Palat, Johnson, Killorn and Namestnikov. If they don't buy out Callahan, they will most likely lose one of those forwards (Killorn or Namestnikov most likely).

[chuckcouples]

Interesting post Jouko. Well done. The expansion rules already exclude players who have missed the previous 60 games or who otherwise have been confirmed to have a career-threatening injury so Clarkson will not have to be protected. Teams will definitely have the ability to buy out players prior to the expansion draft.

I think the one guy most likely to be bought out in the middle of June is MA Fleury. He holds all the cards with the Penguins right now and the only way they can protect Murray is to buy him out. The only other option the Pens will have would be to retain half his salary and move him for almost nothing since the other teams know the Pens are in a bit of a bind.

Based on this season, I can see the Ducks exposing both Vatanen and Manson with them hoping that Vegas takes Vatanen. With Theodore and Montour waiting in the wings, the Ducks can easily replace Vatanen who is turning out to be a PP specialist who isn't even on the #1 PP anymore.

If I am Winnipeg, I am protecting only 4 forwards and not worrying about losing one of Perreault, Lowry, Dano, Armia or Copp (one of them can be protected). With Connor, Roslovic and Petan, the Jets will have no issue with losing a forward.

- - - Updated - - -

Interesting post Jouko. Well done. The expansion rules already exclude players who have missed the previous 60 games or who otherwise have been confirmed to have a career-threatening injury so Clarkson will not have to be protected. Teams will definitely have the ability to buy out players prior to the expansion draft.

I think the one guy most likely to be bought out in the middle of June is MA Fleury. He holds all the cards with the Penguins right now and the only way they can protect Murray is to buy him out. The only other option the Pens will have would be to retain half his salary and move him for almost nothing since the other teams know the Pens are in a bit of a bind.

Based on this season, I can see the Ducks exposing both Vatanen and Manson with them hoping that Vegas takes Vatanen. With Theodore and Montour waiting in the wings, the Ducks can easily replace Vatanen who is turning out to be a PP specialist who isn't even on the #1 PP anymore.

If I am Winnipeg, I am protecting only 4 forwards and not worrying about losing one of Perreault, Lowry, Dano, Armia or Copp (one of them can be protected). With Connor, Roslovic and Petan, the Jets will have no issue with losing a forward.

[Jouko-Pouko]

Interesting post Jouko. Well done. The expansion rules already exclude players who have missed the previous 60 games or who otherwise have been confirmed to have a career-threatening injury so Clarkson will not have to be protected. Teams will definitely have the ability to buy out players prior to the expansion draft.

I think the one guy most likely to be bought out in the middle of June is MA Fleury. He holds all the cards with the Penguins right now and the only way they can protect Murray is to buy him out. The only other option the Pens will have would be to retain half his salary and move him for almost nothing since the other teams know the Pens are in a bit of a bind.

Based on this season, I can see the Ducks exposing both Vatanen and Manson with them hoping that Vegas takes Vatanen. With Theodore and Montour waiting in the wings, the Ducks can easily replace Vatanen who is turning out to be a PP specialist who isn't even on the #1 PP anymore.

If I am Winnipeg, I am protecting only 4 forwards and not worrying about losing one of Perreault, Lowry, Dano, Armia or Copp (one of them can be protected). With Connor, Roslovic and Petan, the Jets will have no issue with losing a forward.

Thanks! Do you have a source for what you said about injured players being excluded? Because the last I know is that the NHL reserved the option to do that but they haven't made that decision. For example, Pierre LeBrun wrote about it like this in December:

At some point, the NHL will rule on injured players such as Clarkson, Nathan Horton (Toronto Maple Leafs) and Ryane Clowe (New Jersey Devils), all three of whom are on the list of 66 protected players.

"Expansion draft rules have provisions allowing us to accord certain contracts different treatments in cases where a player is suspected of having career-ending injuries,'' deputy commissioner Bill Daly wrote in an email to ESPN.com last month.

If you have seen some sort of confirmation that this will happen, I would love to hear about it. And also if you have some confirmation that there is definitely going to be a buyout period before the expansion draft. The rules seem to leave open the option that there wouldn't be if the playoffs run long. Of course the league handles the schedule, so they can make sure there is or isn't a buyout period if they have a preference for that. It's actually a bit weird this hasn't been confirmed anywhere (or at least I haven't seen that confirmation anywhere).

By the way, I'm not being defensive here. I honestly would love to see confirmation for both those topics if anyone has seen such a thing.

Fleury is a possible buyout but I think some team will acquire him basically for free. He's still a starting goalie on a reasonable contract, so I believe someone will take him off their hands. They won't get much of anything because of the situation they're in but that's my opinion. Of course Fleury can block any trade if he wants to but I believe he'll go somewhere on a trade anyways.

Vatanen's value has really taken a hit this season and yes, it's possible they would expose him. But I think they could get something for him in the trade market if they don't see him in their future plans.

I think Lowry is exactly the type of player Winnipeg management loves. He's a big, physical guy who can play center or wing and he doesn't mind playing on their bottom-6. Armia is another big player who has been very good for them in that bottom-6 role, so I think they want to keep him as well. Connor especially is not a fit on the bottom-6, and they need bodies there as well. But Enstrom isn't very effective anymore, so why not buy him out? I don't know, maybe they feel like they owe him something. Of course they'd then need to find a left-handed top-4 'D' but they need that anyways.