Provorov: The Next Karlsson?

[ericdaoust]

BTW you're at least a year late to the party if you're just now buying into Provorov as a future star dman.

[rtstr]

meh, i don't see it at all, totally different skill sets... I could list tons of player A player B comparisons for their first X games and to me the numbers mean nothing.

Ex
Stamkos first season: 49 points, 79 games
Duchene first season: 55 points, 81 games

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meh, i don't see it at all, totally different skill sets... I could list tons of player A player B comparisons for their first X games and to me the numbers mean nothing.

Ex
Stamkos first season: 49 points, 79 games
Duchene first season: 55 points, 81 games

[BreadManPanarin]

To me both Myers and Doughty are close enough in those categories, but if you want even closer, I've added Jacob Trouba to the list.

The Trouba one is definitely the closest, although I don't really agree with the choice to extrapolate to 82 games. Provorov could very well slow down, but right now he is picking up steam and just started getting PP1 time.

I'd rather prorate Trouba to 59 games:
9 G 17 A 40 PIM 121 SOG 86 Hits 120 Blocks

I'd say you found a good enough comparable to satisfy my request. Well done!

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meh, i don't see it at all, totally different skill sets... I could list tons of player A player B comparisons for their first X games and to me the numbers mean nothing.

Ex
Stamkos first season: 49 points, 79 games
Duchene first season: 55 points, 81 games

Apologies, I corrected my poor initial wording. I meant next Karlsson TIER multicat defenseman. Not the next Karlsson in terms of playing style.

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BTW you're at least a year late to the party if you're just now buying into Provorov as a future star dman.

Just now finding barely enough NHL data to use it in the discussion, that's all.

I think there is a bit of a difference between buying into him as a future star dman (term which includes Doughty and Keith) versus a future Karlsson tier multicat fantasy d man (term which does not include Doughty and Keith). I've seen a lot of people tout him as a future star defenseman, but haven't seen a whole lot of discourse on the multicat component. Probably just haven't looked hard enough.

[BreadManPanarin]

In hindsight rataylor is right... I really regret the choice of thread title. I should have just made it "Ivan Provorov: The Next Top Tier Multi-Cat Fantasy D Man?" but at the time that felt too clunky.

I figured I sufficiently covered myself by saying:

"The point being made here is not that Provorov is the next Erik Karlsson. That seems highly unlikely. But Provorov's rookie season measures up favorably to Karlsson's in every statistical measure except PP points, and he is already putting up far superior hit and block rates to what Karlsson did. If (and this is a massive if) Provorov can demonstrate similar progression in his point totals going forward, he just might have the best shot of any young D man out there to be the next absolutely dominant d man in fantasy.

Still upset about the Karlsson comparison? Okay. A more attainable goal might be for him to be the next Roman Josi. Josi is a guy who flirts with 200 SOG and 200 Blocks annually while putting up 50+ points. The list of guys who do that is ridiculously small (just Josi and Giordano the past two years, and they only did it one year each.) Provorov could be a serious contender to be on that short list for a long time."

Alas, unfortunately people fixated way too hard on the idea of it being a comparison of Provorov to Karlsson rather than taking it for what it was meant to be... a discussion of Provorov's multi-cat abilities and potential.

Oh well, lesson learned. I am barely over 1000 posts at this point... still a relative newb. My B

[Kofax]

Just now finding barely enough NHL data to use it in the discussion, that's all.

I think there is a bit of a difference between buying into him as a future star dman (term which includes Doughty and Keith) versus a future Karlsson tier multicat fantasy d man (term which does not include Doughty and Keith). I've seen a lot of people tout him as a future star defenseman, but haven't seen a whole lot of discourse on the multicat component. Probably just haven't looked hard enough.

Probably because the multicats you're concerned with here (BLK and HT) are easily found on the waiver wire with specialists (kris russel, matt martin types), so people don't worry about them quite as much. Points tend to be more important and are harder to come by, so they dominate the discussion. Multicat is a benefit and a tie-breaker that we all need to be aware of, but shouldn't be the driving force.

[BreadManPanarin]

Probably because the multicats you're concerned with here (BLK and HT) are easily found on the waiver wire with specialists (kris russel, matt martin types), so people don't worry about them quite as much. Points tend to be more important and are harder to come by, so they dominate the discussion. Multicat is a benefit and a tie-breaker that we all need to be aware of, but shouldn't be the driving force.

I see what you are saying, and yes it is very easy to find guys who just hit and block... but it is very very hard to find guys who consistently contribute across all categories without being a liability in others. Every time you send out a Kris Russel type you are padding your Block stat while sacrificing other stats. But when you send out a guy like Karlsson you are getting elite offensive production AND elite blocks. This allows you to not bother rostering a guy like Kris Russel and instead roster more guys who can contribute offensively. That's how I look at it, anyways...

Point producers are way more exciting than peripheral producers to me... but point producers who also produce strong peripherals are by far the most exciting. Ovi, Benn, Karlsson, Burns, etc...

[rataylor22]

I see what you are saying, and yes it is very easy to find guys who just hit and block... but it is very very hard to find guys who consistently contribute across all categories without being a liability in others. Every time you send out a Kris Russel type you are padding your Block stat while sacrificing other stats. But when you send out a guy like Karlsson you are getting elite offensive production AND elite blocks. This allows you to not bother rostering a guy like Kris Russel and instead roster more guys who can contribute offensively. That's how I look at it, anyways...

Point producers are way more exciting than peripheral producers to me... but point producers who also produce strong peripherals are by far the most exciting. Ovi, Benn, Karlsson, Burns, etc...

I do not think Provorov is in the Burns/Karlsson tier because of 60 games. Not close. That is an elite, near generational tier. Provorov is a couple tiers below at least.

[BreadManPanarin]

I do not think Provorov is in the Burns/Karlsson tier because of 60 games. Not close. That is an elite, near generational tier. Provorov is a couple tiers below at least.

Of course he is a couple tiers below right now... I don't think anyone would argue that. My point was that I believe he will be in that tier in the not too distant future. And again with the disclaimer: in multicat leagues, not points only.

[rataylor22]

Of course he is a couple tiers below right now... I don't think anyone would argue that. My point was that I believe he will be in that tier in the not too distant future. And again with the disclaimer: in multicat leagues, not points only.

Yes it was obvious what you were saying, just as it was obvious that is the point I was disputing. He's not a generational talent, and he won't enter the generational production tier any time in the future. He can be Hedman, not Karlsson. In multicat or points only.

[lucafen4]

I do not think Provorov is in the Burns/Karlsson tier because of 60 games. Not close. That is an elite, near generational tier. Provorov is a couple tiers below at least.

might be able to re-phrase this and say, Provorov is a couple YEARS AWAY at least. ...

Beast in the making

[BreadManPanarin]

Yes it was obvious what you were saying, just as it was obvious that is the point I was disputing. He's not a generational talent, and he won't enter the generational production tier any time in the future. He can be Hedman, not Karlsson. In multicat or points only.

We are simply arguing different points, ra.

The top 5 D men in my multicat league currently is:
Name - Player Rating
Burns - 17.96
Byfuglien - 15.08
Weber - 13.45
Karlsson - 12.91
Ristolainen - 12.17

Hedman is #6 with a player rating of 11.11. Not much different than Karlsson.

These are the guys I consider to be the top tier of multicat defensemen. I believe that within the next 2-3 years (or sooner) Provorov's player rating will be somewhere in that range, making him a top tier multicat d man. In my league, at least. Your definition of top tier fantasy multicat defenseman might be different than mine, but that doesn't make you right or me wrong. It just means we disagree.

[rataylor22]

We are simply arguing different points, ra.

The top 5 D men in my multicat league currently is:
Name - Player Rating
Burns - 17.96
Byfuglien - 15.08
Weber - 13.45
Karlsson - 12.91
Ristolainen - 12.17

Hedman is #6 with a player rating of 11.11. Not much different than Karlsson.

These are the guys I consider to be the top tier of multicat defensemen. I believe that within the next 2-3 years (or sooner) Provorov's player rating will be somewhere in that range, making him a top tier multicat d man. In my league, at least. Your definition of top tier fantasy multicat defenseman might be different than mine, but that doesn't make you right or me wrong. It just means we disagree.

So in your league specifically, very very specifically, in one scenario, Provorov will be there. IN GENERAL, in your average multi-cat fantasy league.

Karlsson
Burns
-----
Byfuglien
Hedman
Letang
OEL
-----
Weber
Risto
Doughty
Keith

Provorov will be in that third tier. He could get into the second tier. He won't be in the first tier.

[BreadManPanarin]

So in your league specifically, very very specifically, in one scenario, Provorov will be there. IN GENERAL, in your average multi-cat fantasy league.

Karlsson
Burns
-----
Byfuglien
Hedman
Letang
OEL
-----
Weber
Risto
Doughty
Keith

Provorov will be in that third tier. He could get into the second tier. He won't be in the first tier.

This is not an argument - just a curious question for clarification. What is the format of an average multi-cat league?

Mine is G, A, +/-,PIM, SOG, Hit, Blk, PPpt. Head to head, so each category win has equal value.

[hockeyrobot]

This is not an argument - just a curious question for clarification. What is the format of an average multi-cat league?

Mine is G, A, +/-,PIM, SOG, Hit, Blk, PPpt. Head to head, so each category win has equal value.

I would say +/- and PIM are being filtered out of a lot of leagues.

[BreadManPanarin]

I would say +/- and PIM are being filtered out of a lot of leagues.

I wish that were true of my league... Would make my entire team including Provorov more valuable lol. I struggle in +/- and PIM