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Thread: Possibly the last chance to buy Jarnkrok

  1. #16
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    Default Re: Possibly the last chance to buy Jarnkrok

    Quote Originally Posted by The Iron Sheik View Post
    not a good comparison either, but regardless, Jarnkrok just doesn't have that kind of skill. He hasn't shown anything in over 2.5 years.

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    I just proved to you why those names should not be compared to Jarnkrok. They went from actually producing fine to producing more. Jarnkrok right now is producing nothing and has produced nothing for 2.5 seasons. If he was a top 6 player, he would have shown that before.
    Why exactly do you enjoy contradicting yourself so much?

    If you cant see how a 40 point player becoming a 60 point player is similar to a 30 point player becoming a 50 point player, well. That's on you. Jarnkrok is producing fine, and with more opportunity in a 2nd line role, with more ice time and PP time, could produce more. If you continually fail to want to accept the concept of progression (as you often do), then continue to fail to accept it and continue to be wrong. That's fine.

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    Quote Originally Posted by The Iron Sheik View Post
    Said it at the time last year, Jarnkrok himself has no faith he'll ever be a scorer. Otherwise he wouldn't sign the deal he did.
    Just like Josi had no faith he would be an All-Star defenseman and Norris contender, I guess.

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    Default Re: Possibly the last chance to buy Jarnkrok

    Quote Originally Posted by rataylor22 View Post
    Why exactly do you enjoy contradicting yourself so much?

    If you cant see how a 40 point player becoming a 60 point player is similar to a 30 point player becoming a 50 point player, well. That's on you. Jarnkrok is producing fine, and with more opportunity in a 2nd line role, with more ice time and PP time, could produce more. If you continually fail to want to accept the concept of progression (as you often do), then continue to fail to accept it and continue to be wrong. That's fine.

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    Just like Josi had no faith he would be an All-Star defenseman and Norris contender, I guess.
    You are just so stubborn. Clearly he thinks so highly of himself of becoming a 50 point player by accepting a 5 year $2 million contract. Absolutely hilarious how anyone can't see how obvious this point is. $2 million is fourth line money. There's zero chance he signs that deal if he thought he would ever get 50 points in the next few seasons. It makes no sense.

    Roman Josi at least got 4 million and he is not a Norris contender...

    You're the one is is wrong here. Accept it and move on. Or dont, and enjoy the 27 points Jarnkrok has provided. That really helps in fantasy. Enjoy winning your leagues with that.

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    Default Re: Possibly the last chance to buy Jarnkrok

    I'm surprising myself by saying this but I'm with Big Sheik here. A good week hardly indicates a long-standing trend. Jarnkrok's trend is to play a 4th line role...this spell of good play as 2C is more likely to peter out than turn into a permanent gig.
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    Default Re: Possibly the last chance to buy Jarnkrok

    Small sample size, bears watching though.

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    Default Re: Possibly the last chance to buy Jarnkrok

    I thought Kamanev was to be 2nd line C? I think with the follow up to my question.. I'm undoubtedly holding Fisher and will watch from a distance on Jarnkrok... I still think Hoffman, breaking into the NHL at 25 is a better comparable than Pavelski or Steen though.
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    Default Re: Possibly the last chance to buy Jarnkrok

    Wouldn't Fiala be the 2nd center pretty soon?
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    Default Re: Possibly the last chance to buy Jarnkrok

    Quote Originally Posted by masterjeff View Post
    Wouldn't Fiala be the 2nd center pretty soon?
    he only qualifies as LW/RW this season on my roster... pretty certain he's a wing moving forward.
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    Default Re: Possibly the last chance to buy Jarnkrok

    Some interesting points on both sides of the debate. Nice to see though, and I want to discuss most of it if possible. Any breakout/value with him would come down to opportunity, growth, and salary. To each point:

    Opportunity:
    Right now, he has it, and he is taking the small opportunity and running with it. Not distinctly mentioned in my original post is that he is also getting power play time (~50% the last two games). So I think Laviolette wants to at least see what he can do for a few games. He will probably continue to get time as long as he keeps playing well. There is definitely the chance that Nashville guns for a second line C at the deadline be it RNH, Duchene or another (potentially for Ekholm/Ellis - but that's another thread completely). If that were to happen, then either Jarnkrok would get pushed back down to the bottom 6, or Wilson would be pushed down, and Jarnkrok would be shifted over. I actually think that is more likely. So we would see it line up as:
    Forsberg/Johansen/Arvie
    Jarnkrok/New C/Neal
    Wilson/Fisher/Smith - (Smith and Wilson have a good history together too)
    Watson/Sissons/McLeod

    **Yes I think the lineup is optimized with Ribeiro scratched. Can't keep up with the game anymore and doesn't have the compete level, often looking lost on the ice - I watch enough games to know.**

    So what we would see from that, is likely Jarnkrok keeping the minutes and opportunity he has now, but losing FW. As a winger he may even be opened up for a little more offensive production due to losing the defensive responsibilities of playing C. In addition, whoever the Preds supposedly trade for would likely be an upgrade on Wilson in terms of quality of linemate. Basically a trade for another forward at this point may even work out in Jarnkrok's favour.

    In that worst case where he does end up back on the third line, it's not a death spell. Teams are rolling their third line more than ever, and Jarnkrok is showing what he can do with opportunity. Nashville will also likely be losing a F to expansion in June. Either Jarnkrok's contract is very attractive to Vegas and he can lead a line there (top 6) or he will be in Nashville where there is one less player to compete with for ice time.
    With regards to the next two in line, Kamenev and Fiala, they will be pushing for full time spots next year. Fiala may fill in for whoever gets plucked by Vegas, but he is not a big threat to supplant Jarnkrok right away, especially as a winger. Kamenev will be good, and he may eventually be a top 6 C for Nashville, but he has so far had a slow development curve, and needs some time to learn at the top level. He won't be handed the reign

    Growth:
    The age part doesn't scare me, because up until a few years ago, Jarnkrok was in the Red Wings minors system, which is (was?) well known for bringing along their prospects very slowly, and having them break out into the NHL maybe a couple years later than they would with any other current NHL team. So push back his growth by about three years, and if we saw this as a 23 year old player growing like this, there would be much less of a question about his line of progression. Players like Atkinson who are a little shorter can also take a couple years longer to develop. So all in all there isn't too much to worry about IMO.

    The other thing about Calle Jarnkrok is that he has emerged as a very responsible forward. For Nashville he is known as being a very mature player, and a bit of a spark plug on the ice. The coaches praise his ability to make very few mistakes, and play in all situations. Maybe the fact that he gets just under %40 of the available PK time and only has an OFF-Zone Start% of just over 40% caps his production a bit, but it does mean he is not likely to see less time in close games, and more/consistent ice time is always a good thing. He makes a very good fit as a second line player that can play at both ends of the ice behind the very offensively loaded first line.

    Salary:
    The initial post was in the salary cap section, and that was the base point of the article too. For cap leagues he has the opportunity to become a big steal. How many 2nd line players not on their ELCs can you name that make $2 Million or less off the top of your head? Not many is the answer. Jarnkrok has 5 years past this one to exceed the value on a $2 Million dollar contract. That is not hard to do. In the article I pegged his upside past this season at about 55 points. We can all agree that he will not be Joe Pavelski, not will he likely even be Alex Steen. He doesn't have to be. As a depth player in a Salary Cap league, if you can get about 25 points per Million dollars that you spend, you are laughing.

    My favourite comparison though for this is Roman Josi. Like with what Yzerman has done with a bunch of good contracts in TBay, if you can make comparable with the same team and GM, then the consistency is there for a more accurate comparison. Roman Josi signed his current deal after a season and a half in the NHL. Any guesses on when Jarnkrok signed? Just under two seasons into his career. Nashville say something in both of them that they wanted locked up. These kind of deals also act as basically a double bridge contract, bringing the player right to UFA status, where thy have the opportunity to land their big pay-day. For a second year player who hasn't really broken out yet, the job security would also be important. Thus the 6 year deal at a lower salary doesn't exactly speak to how Jarnkrok views himself. It took Josi about 2 seasons into his $4 Million deal to look like a steal. Jarnkrok is currently not even seven months into his contract. In another year and a bit, I will almost guarantee that his deal looks like a steal. By year 6 if he is hitting 55-60 points as a second line player, then that's money in the bank.


    TL/DR:
    Opportunity: Lots there due to lineup shifts, Vegas plucking a guy, could succeed just as much as a top 6 winger.
    Growth: Red Wings system for development, thus he'll be a bit delayed, plus very responsible.
    Salary: Tiny salary for anyone who scores over 30 points, let alone 40+. Pretty easy to be a bargain now, extremely easy later.
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  9. #24
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    Default Re: Possibly the last chance to buy Jarnkrok

    Quote Originally Posted by The Iron Sheik View Post
    You are just so stubborn. Clearly he thinks so highly of himself of becoming a 50 point player by accepting a 5 year $2 million contract. Absolutely hilarious how anyone can't see how obvious this point is. $2 million is fourth line money. There's zero chance he signs that deal if he thought he would ever get 50 points in the next few seasons. It makes no sense.

    Roman Josi at least got 4 million and he is not a Norris contender...

    You're the one is is wrong here. Accept it and move on. Or dont, and enjoy the 27 points Jarnkrok has provided. That really helps in fantasy. Enjoy winning your leagues with that.
    Josi finished 5th in Norris voting last season. So if that's not a Norris contender, I dunno what is.

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    Default Re: Possibly the last chance to buy Jarnkrok

    10 points in the last 9 games for those counting. Plus this beauty from last night:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0D3GecxjUBQ

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    10 points in the last 9 games for those counting. Plus this beauty from last night:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0D3GecxjUBQ
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  11. #26
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    Default Re: Possibly the last chance to buy Jarnkrok

    Quote Originally Posted by rataylor22 View Post
    Will Jarnkrok turn into a first line star? No. Will he always be a 30 point player because he hasn't cracked that prior to age 25? Also no. Could he turn from a 30 point player to a 50 or 60 point player? Yea he could, just like many other players have become much better point producers later in their careers, see Alex Steen and Joe Pavelski.
    Strange argument. Both Pavelski and Steen are first line stars. You know Jarnkrok won't be one, but you compare him to these two anyways.

    If you've got a bench needing 16 forwards on a twenty team league, Jarnkrok has value.

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    Default Re: Possibly the last chance to buy Jarnkrok

    Quote Originally Posted by Run! View Post
    Strange argument. Both Pavelski and Steen are first line stars. You know Jarnkrok won't be one, but you compare him to these two anyways.

    If you've got a bench needing 16 forwards on a twenty team league, Jarnkrok has value.
    I wasn't trying to bring this up to rekindle the arguments from earlier, so can we leave the disagreements behind? Thanks

    I actually own him in half of my leagues right now (4/8) and he is providing great value, especially in a salary cap situation (which was my original point). I don't think the league needs to be 16 Fs deep, nor 20 teams, in order for a player scoring at the rate he is to be useful. None of my leagues are that big to begin with.
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    Default Re: Possibly the last chance to buy Jarnkrok

    I picked him up in the one league that counts F/O's... I now sit with him and Fisher... unfortunately, Fisher holds zero trade value -- odd considering he's producing solid peripheral stats across the board and is healthy this year. I'm liking what I've gotten from Calle so far.

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    I picked him up in the one league that counts F/O's... I now sit with him and Fisher... unfortunately, Fisher holds zero trade value -- odd considering he's producing solid peripheral stats across the board and is healthy this year. I'm liking what I've gotten from Calle so far.
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    Default Re: Possibly the last chance to buy Jarnkrok

    Quote Originally Posted by Eskimo Brother View Post
    I wasn't trying to bring this up to rekindle the arguments from earlier, so can we leave the disagreements behind? Thanks

    I actually own him in half of my leagues right now (4/8) and he is providing great value, especially in a salary cap situation (which was my original point). I don't think the league needs to be 16 Fs deep, nor 20 teams, in order for a player scoring at the rate he is to be useful. None of my leagues are that big to begin with.
    I added him last week in a points only league, based on your recommendation, so good recommendation!

    p.s. Josi is a Norris contender hands down
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    Default Re: Possibly the last chance to buy Jarnkrok

    Quote Originally Posted by The Iron Sheik View Post
    Roman Josi at least got 4 million and he is not a Norris contender...

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