Roto league games player pacing strategy

[4T2]

What sort of strategy do you guys use for your Roto leagues as far as games played goes?

Most people seem to keep a steady pace without getting too far ahead or behind of themselves. But I've seen a lot of managers just play there guys every game and pace way over at a few positions, then often they are left to stream in options at a neglected position later. Can anyone explain the benefit of this strategy to me?

If I can get a few good goalies in the draft, I don't mind pacing over on goalie games and then trading them later in the season, but it can be hard to pull this off in a typical league set up with only 2 G slots.

*Note* - Wasn't sure what category to put this in so feel free to move it if it fits better elsewhere.

[Eskimo Brother]

Usually I try not to fall behind in any category, since then you end up streaming supper options later. Generally I will try to wait on Cs, and maybe get a few games behind there, because that's usually the position that others end up stacking up, and then dropping 90% of the way through the season.
The other thing is getting a few games behind right off the bat, because then it gives you a little time to get the lay of the land on who is doing well and why. Then you can stream guys based on actual info to catch up in games.

- - - Updated - - -

Usually I try not to fall behind in any category, since then you end up streaming supper options later. Generally I will try to wait on Cs, and maybe get a few games behind there, because that's usually the position that others end up stacking up, and then dropping 90% of the way through the season.
The other thing is getting a few games behind right off the bat, because then it gives you a little time to get the lay of the land on who is doing well and why. Then you can stream guys based on actual info to catch up in games.

[Pengwin7]

There are upsides/downsides to all three tactics:
*Over-pace
*On-pace
*Under-pace

Under-pacing / "lurking":
The biggest benefit to under-pacing is that you can "lurk" behind people in the standings. People typically don't pay attention to the people BEHIND them in the standings - unless they are in 1st, of course, and its the only direction to look.
In roto, if you are in 3rd or 4th or 5th, you are usually (or should be) gearing up to try to take down a leader in a category (2pt swing). So "appearing" to be in 1st place can be detrimental. If you pace below in GP, then it is also easier to know that you can make-up stats in a category over somebody just ahead of you with substantially more GP.

On-pacing / "comfort zone":
Most people are only comfortable hanging around with the masses. They feel they can better evaluate themselves. Also, naturally, if you draft a top 3C/3LW/3RW... then as long as those guys are healthy, that's your perfect pace is to ONLY play those guys. Being "on pace" is really the only spot where somebody of AVERAGE mathematical skills can size up their competition in a roto category.

Over-pacing:
Most people that overpace, I believe, do so because they have this fear of leaving stats on the bench any given night. They can't live with themselves if they sit their 4th best RW, David Perron -say, and he has that one hat trick that he does every season. So they roll everybody on their squad out there. Also, some people like that cushy feeling of being as high in the standings as they can.

I over-pace for strategic reasons. My favourite spots to over-pace in are goalie-games and D-games. Most people LOVE their forwards, much easier offense to find. D/G are scarce... so if you can get quality ones, hoard them... there is ALWAYS somebody in a league behind-pace at D/G and you can usually convince them that your players are more valuable late in the season when they are like -30 at D or G.


Current tactics I'm employing:
In RHRS, slightly behind pace at all F positions, WAY up on pace at D, ahead of pace at G.
In Iron League, slightly up on pace at LW, RW, WAY up on pace at D, ahead of pace at G.
In DobberPRO, WAY WAY WAY up on pace at G. Way, way, way back at all skaters.

re: D. With a lot of NHL teams employing 4F/1D powerplays... D become scarcer for PPP scoring, so if you can keep the good D off the wire, you do that.
re: G. Most 12-team leagues use 2G, so that's 24G in play for starts. That's 80% of the NHL's 30g x 82gp. The NHL also has a lot of same-night play. Essentially, from my experience, in 12-team leagues, usually only 3-5 teams are hitting their GPmax for goalies... mostly out of bad-pacing. This makes it fairly easier to finish top 3-5 in W/SV just by rostering enough starts. This is always my prefered route... to make sure I get my starts, value-draft quantity of goalies, and simply PRAY that my GAA/SV% is middling or slightly below-average.

In DobberPRO, I'm trying out my first ever EXTREMIST strategy of trying to log all my goalie starts before trade deadline and then go full prep skater-planning to make up GP.
Currently:
@C: 179gp, 149left, -10proj (for 4 spots)
@LW: 175gp, 153 left, -14proj (for 4 spots)
@RW: 173gp, 155 left, -16proj (for 4 spots)
@D: 238gp, 254 left, -45proj (for 6 spots)
...
and, wait for it...
...
@G: 129gp, 35 left, +34proj (for 2 spots)

The goal being to log almost all my goalie games by March 3rd trade deadline.
Then use:
5C, to make up roughly 15gp @ 4C
5LW, to make up roughly 15gp @ 4LW
5RW, to make up roughly 15gp @ 4RW
7-8D, to make up roughly 50gp @ 6D slots

I'll probably keep ONE goalie GP ununsed so that somebody doesn't park themselves just ahead of me in GAA/SV%.

And it'll be the greatest ever strategical skater-cat rally EV-AH!
(Though, when I say that, I'm looking to climb from 10th to about 5th...)


And one NOTE to SELF / Pengwin Bookmark:
There is roughly 180 days in the regular season hockey calendar. (Oct-20, Nov-30, Dec-31, Jan-31, Feb-28, Mar-31, Apr-9)
2G x 82 = 164gp... so that counter clicks down about 1 every day.

Being Jan23, today is Day 104/180 (57.8%) ... and Yahoo! says we should be at 95*/164gp (57.9%) for 2G leagues.
This does fall inline with the average NHL team, which has played 47.07gp... which translates to 57.4% of the total NHL GP to date.
*95 represents 3rd highest goalie GP... and there are 13 teams in DobberPRO, meaning 2 are over-pace, 1 is on-pace, and 10... TEN!... are behind pace.
I'm curious what that "GP" mark is on Jan 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31... as the NHL is OFF for the 4-days of ASG.
Does the counter click down - or pause?
If it keeps moving - which I assume it does - then when we return to hockey on Jan31, people might be feeling "behind pace" at goalie.
FEB is, I believe, going to be a thinned out schedule with a lot of teams taking their 5-day-off break... which means there will be a TON of "same night" / compressed scheduling in March.

IIRC, the Yahoo game counter got all fugged up last year after ASG / a few games getting rescheduled.

[4T2]

I definitely had you in mind when I posted this thread Pengwin as I know you are never one to shy away from sharing your strategy. Thanks for the great read! Please keep us posted on how the goalie strategy in the DobberPro league works out!

[ericdaoust]

I try to stay around +5 all the way around so I'm not stuck scrambling when injuries hit. I can afford to be patient.