Dylan Larkin - What to make

[BigDog]

So in my multicat league (G,A,Pts, PIM, +/-, PPP, SHP, Hits, Blocks) Larkin was just dropped. Was keeper for the owner last year.

He is having a dreadful year on a team that can't score (11G, 5A, 3PPP so far this year). However, he did have 23 goals and 45 points as a 19 year old. On pace for 20 goals still but only 30 points and not many on the PP. He doesn't do much in the other categories either but for some reason I am still intrigued.

Is he worth a flier or should I just buy into the fact this year he is likely a 30-35 point player that won't do much else?

Thanks,

[MasterByte]

Larkin's value comes from his large sog totals right now. Your league doesn't count shots. I wouldn't bother with him unless he and the detroit offense heat up (outside of Mantha).

[Eskimo Brother]

He started off really strong, but if you look at his last 82 games (first half of this season and last half of last season) then you see he is extremely replaceable. I don't put huge stock in him moving forward.

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He started off really strong, but if you look at his last 82 games (first half of this season and last half of last season) then you see he is extremely replaceable. I don't put huge stock in him moving forward.

[Pengwin7]

I overdrafted Larkin in two one-year leagues this year.

I have a personal rule that I usually stick with - don't overdraft blazing fast guys that have a majority of stat years with more goals than assists.
Larkin had 23g,22a last year. He won fastest skater, IIRC.

Larkin had a really good year as a Freshman at UM, but maybe they just had a bunch of good token finishers that artificially inflated his assist totals.

There are several guys in the NHL that I've harped on over the years like Grabner, Brett Connolly, Evander Kane.
Andreas Anthanasiou strikes me in this group too.
Guys that are either too fast, or too shot-centric - they just... they move too fast or in some style that doesn't allow their hockey-sense, hockey-vision to flourish.
[And don't get me wrong... the generationals like Ovechkin and Hull... even Laine, they can be super-shooters and go 1G>1A... but its generally a warning sign in a sport that awards up to 2A for every G.]

I guess I didn't watch enough of Larkin last year.
I think as a moderate Red Wing fan, I let myself put on the rose-coloured glasses and get too excited about him.

A few weeks ago I dropped him in one league (he was my 6th round pick... I coulda had Jeff Carter!!!) and am about to drop him in another.

He plays the game a bit too fast, with those horse-blinders on that have him focused on the net instead of playmaking.
And for the last month or so, he's been anchoring a 3rd line with guys like Riley Sheahan and Luke Glendening.

IDK - I think he's one of those guys that had that great rookie year.
We (as a fantasy hockey society) have a tendency to take anybody's great rookie year and extrapolate only upwards...

Larkin's good, but he's playing too fast, too narrow for me.
I don't see him turning it around any time soon... which is a tough analysis to have for any young player.
5A thru 41gp... that's abysmal.

I hope he proves me wrong.

[agentzero]

I love that rule Pengwin!

I fear I my have drafted a similar player in Kyle Connor lol.. Blazing speed...

Worst case scenario he ends up like Brad Marchand, Mason Raymond, Michael Grabner, etc. Huge speed but little else in terms of production.. but I don't see that happening.

Watching a lot of him at the NCAA level (and of Connor) and at the NHL level, I see something in his game that is much more than just speed. He is having a horrible season, but that Wings team is just terrible. Production in that group is very unpredictable. Tatar was a stud at the WC, only to suck in-season. I have no idea what is happening with Gustav Nyqvist, who has all the tools to put up 60 pts quite easily.. I feel like that whole team is squeezing the stick.

What I didn't like from Larkin at the WC was how he was acting in the play. He got way too engaged in playing gritty and got distracted with the extra-curricular activity. He forced plays and generally looked frustrated. However, he is easily one of the best puck-handlers on the Wings and is a special player. He sees the ice very well and has that ability to place his shots, vary his shot speed and hound on the forecheck, creating turnovers. He has a great motor and a no-quit style. I know this year is really bad (and it's killing me, fantasy-wise) but I would hang tight.

Two years ago, his fantasy outlook projected him to be like Alex Steen. Last year, it was more like Zetterberg. The truth is probably somewhere in-between. I see the upside.

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I love that rule Pengwin!

I fear I my have drafted a similar player in Kyle Connor lol.. Blazing speed...

Worst case scenario he ends up like Brad Marchand, Mason Raymond, Michael Grabner, etc. Huge speed but little else in terms of production.. but I don't see that happening.

Watching a lot of him at the NCAA level (and of Connor) and at the NHL level, I see something in his game that is much more than just speed. He is having a horrible season, but that Wings team is just terrible. Production in that group is very unpredictable. Tatar was a stud at the WC, only to suck in-season. I have no idea what is happening with Gustav Nyqvist, who has all the tools to put up 60 pts quite easily.. I feel like that whole team is squeezing the stick.

What I didn't like from Larkin at the WC was how he was acting in the play. He got way too engaged in playing gritty and got distracted with the extra-curricular activity. He forced plays and generally looked frustrated. However, he is easily one of the best puck-handlers on the Wings and is a special player. He sees the ice very well and has that ability to place his shots, vary his shot speed and hound on the forecheck, creating turnovers. He has a great motor and a no-quit style. I know this year is really bad (and it's killing me, fantasy-wise) but I would hang tight.

Two years ago, his fantasy outlook projected him to be like Alex Steen. Last year, it was more like Zetterberg. The truth is probably somewhere in-between. I see the upside.