Need to keep 7, but have 10 solid candidates; HELP!

[gcefaloni]

Hi guys,

I'm in a cap league where we keep 7 every year and where defensemen are extremely important because +/- count for as much as points (positively or negatively). Good Ds in good teams are a rarity that almost never get traded.
By expenrience, I'd say I wouldn't want to go over 40m$ next year for my 7 keepers because getting 11 players for less than 30m$ after gets really really hard in the later rounds otherwise.
I want to force a trade to help me this season and perhaps improve on my D core that is faltering this year. I want to keep the best possible 7 keepers for the money going forward and possibly trade other solid elements.
What would be your best combination of 7 top-end players that would respect more or less the 40M$ soft cap?

My Ds have been a major dissappointment this year (the best 4 count towards points every 10 games stretch):
Salary : Players : GP : Fantasy Points
3.967 : John Carlson 36 18
6.000 : Mike Green 32 13
0.900 : Ivan Provorov 39 13
4.250 : K. Shattenkirk 37 17
4.000 : Roman Josi 36 15

by contrast, here are the D cores of the 2 leading teams this year:
Salary : Players : GP : Fantasy Points
1.400 Justin Schultz 38 47
2.000 Dmitry Orlov 36 29
5.000 Morgan Rielly 36 16
0.900 Zach Werenski 35 31
0.900 Michael Matheson 37 10

Salary : Players : GP : Fantasy Points
1.400 Justin Schultz 38 47
2.000 Dmitry Orlov 36 29
5.000 Morgan Rielly 36 16
0.900 Zach Werenski 35 31
0.900 Michael Matheson 37 10

So my question is: What top 7 would you guys keep going forward if I am not in a rebuild stage and trying to do well year in year out? I kept Mackinnon for a while but getting tired of him, Tavares is very good pts/million but will resign soon at a very high cap and he barely ever goes over a point per game it feels like. Marner as a good potential especially for 900k for the next 2 years but is he worth keeping as a top producer? My D core is extremely important, I used to keep 3 Ds every season (Shattenkirk, Josi, Carlson) but I feel like I have too good forwards to sacrifice this time around for next year and I used to think all 3 were amongst the best value Ds I could get but all of them are faltering with no top point production so far this year.

I'm leaning towards Mcdavid, Tarasenko, Giroux, Tavares, Marner (or Shattenkirk?), Carlson, Josi but I'm not sure whether throwing away or attempting to trade Mackinnon, Shattenkirk, Provorov will reap good enough rewards in my quest to win this year AND to maximize value over the longer run for my team.

What would you guys do? My proposed top7 above adds up to about 31M$ so there is plenty of room to spend more if it is worth it.

My full team is in my signature but I will link the players in question's stats this year in my league:
CAP Player GP Fantasy Points
0.900 Mitchell Marner 36 27
6.300 N. MacKinnon 36 25
0.900 J. Gabriel Pageau 37 13
0.925 Connor McDavid 38 43
5.500 John Tavares 36 27
7.000 Daniel Sedin 38 22
7.500 V. Tarasenko 37 39
0.853 Tobias Rieder 35 15
8.275 Claude Giroux 39 32
1.000 Matt Cullen 38 14
3.967 John Carlson 36 18
6.000 Mike Green 32 13
0.900 Ivan Provorov 39 13
4.250 K. Shattenkirk 37 17
4.000 Roman Josi 36 15
2.500 Brian Elliott 18 17
1.700 Chad Johnson 22 27
0.900 Mathew Barzal 2 0
5.500 Tyson Barrie 36 -2

[Eskimo Brother]

0.900 Mitchell Marner 36 27 - Another 2 years of his rookie contract, and he's going to start putting up 60+
6.300 N. MacKinnon 36 25
0.900 J. Gabriel Pageau 37 13
0.925 Connor McDavid 38 43 - No doubt
5.500 John Tavares 36 27 - One of the best cap bargains
7.000 Daniel Sedin 38 22
7.500 V. Tarasenko 37 39 - Worth what he is paid
0.853 Tobias Rieder 35 15
8.275 Claude Giroux 39 32 - Tough to cut, but the
1.000 Matt Cullen 38 14
3.967 John Carlson 36 18 - Huge bargain
6.000 Mike Green 32 13
0.900 Ivan Provorov 39 13 - Great prospect, and cheap salary
4.250 K. Shattenkirk 37 17
4.000 Roman Josi 36 15 - Same as Carlson
2.500 Brian Elliott 18 17
1.700 Chad Johnson 22 27
0.900 Mathew Barzal 2 0
5.500 Tyson Barrie 36 -2

Some tough cuts, but the bolded would be my picks based on your scenario (some thoughts with it). Gives you a ton of room to draft too, so at the end when no teams have room, you can swoop in and get a couple later salaried guys. Something of the Thornton ilk.

[tobias]

I actually had the exact same guys in my mental list as EB does.

[Sulla]

The big question here for me is what Provorov can land you in a trade right now as that's what I'd explore to upgrade your keepers... He is a quality d man on an ELC but I think you have enough keepers to warrant Minny the value that is there right now

- - - Updated - - -

The big question here for me is what Provorov can land you in a trade right now as that's what I'd explore to upgrade your keepers... He is a quality d man on an ELC but I think you have enough keepers to warrant Minny the value that is there right now

[gcefaloni]

I'm not sure how much I can get for Provorov, most guys seem to value Ds that are clear quarterbacks (Gostisbehere: a problem). And I'm not sure I get what you mean regarding "enough keepers to warrant Minny the value that is there right now" Sulla.

[stevegamer]

I agree with EB's keepers, with the possible exception of Giroux, who I'd try and either squeeze some value out of in a trade, or keep after doing that with another player. I really hate trying to figure out +/-, and I don't see the Flyers becoming actually good at that until they improve the goaltending, but they are close to even right now, even though they are almost last in goals allowed.

Sulla means "mining the value that is there right now", but his autocorrect didn't realize it.

Could you move Giroux for an upgrade in net, say Andersen on Toronto? That way you have a goalie keeper.