View Poll Results: Who is/are LEAST likely to ever again reach 2016-17 expected production?

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  • Tyson Barrie (EP = 52 points; ASP = 43 points)

    5 8.62%
  • Derick Brassard (EP = 56; ASP = 38)

    14 24.14%
  • T.J. Brodie (EP = 46; ASP = 29)

    13 22.41%
  • John Carlson (EP = 56; ASP = 42)

    6 10.34%
  • Logan Couture (EP = 65; ASP = 51)

    4 6.90%
  • Jordan Eberle (EP = 68; ASP = 56)

    9 15.52%
  • Oliver Ekman-Larsson (EP = 57; ASP = 42)

    8 13.79%
  • Tyler Johnson (EP = 61; ASP = 45)

    13 22.41%
  • Roman Josi (EP = 57; ASP = 43)

    14 24.14%
  • Anze Kopitar (EP = 71; ASP = 41)

    14 24.14%
  • David Krejci (EP = 62; ASP = 50)

    7 12.07%
  • Jake Muzzin (EP = 41; ASP = 18)

    22 37.93%
  • Gustav Nyqvist (EP = 53; ASP = 39)

    10 17.24%
  • Ondrej Palat (EP = 57; ASP = 42)

    10 17.24%
  • Bobby Ryan (EP = 53; ASP = 36)

    23 39.66%
  • Reilly Smith (EP = 54; ASP = 36)

    19 32.76%
  • Tomas Tatar (EP = 50; ASP = 37)

    7 12.07%
  • John Tavares (EP = 79; ASP = 61.5)

    10 17.24%
  • Jonathan Toews (EP = 61; ASP = 49)

    10 17.24%
  • Blake Wheeler (EP = 71; ASP = 61)

    11 18.97%
Multiple Choice Poll.
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Thread: CAGE MATCH TOURNAMENT #2 - The Struggle Is Real - VOTE HERE

  1. #1
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    Default CAGE MATCH TOURNAMENT #2 - The Struggle Is Real - VOTE HERE

    It's a bit of deja vu for this week's second and final Winter Cage Match Tournament, which also functions as the first Cage Match column for 2017. That's because just like this summer, where I followed the breakout player tournaments with the defensemen and forward fallers tournaments, we're moving from last week's sustainable breakouts tournament to the other side of the coin this week - deciding which struggling players have truly gone downhill, never to recover.

    Here's a link to the column: http://www.dobberhockey.com/hockey-h...-back-to-form/. In it you'll see full write-ups for each player to help decide your vote. When voting, be sure to keep these very important details in mind, especially #1 and #2:

    1) There are two numbers in parentheses next to each player - first his "expected production" (noted as "EP") which corresponds to roughly what he was expected to score during 2016-17, and second, his "actual scoring pace" (noted as "ASP") which is how many points he'd score in a full 82 game season at his current pace (through 1/1/17).
    2) For a player (or, as noted below in #3, players) to get your vote, you need to believe that the player not only won't he achieve his expected production (or that production rate if he misses games) when all is said and done for 2016-17, but he'll also fail to reach it again in any future season. In other words, don't vote for someone you think is having an off year and will return to his "normal" production next season or down the road. Vote only for someone who's truly gone downhill, never to return. To be clear, each player's "actual scoring pace" is there for illustration purposes only; the magic number in deciding your vote is the "expected production" and whether you think that player will ever achieve it again, either this season or in a future season.
    3) You can vote for multiple players, or just one.
    4) Only players age 25-30 are included as choices, since younger players are still rounding into form and older players are expected to be on the decline.
    5) Even though they're not age-disqualified, Mikkel Boedker and Marc-Edouard Vlasic are not on the list since I was afraid they'd run away with the voting and it's always more fun to go into a tournament like this with the hope that voting will be close, and thus more informative.

    Of course if you have any questions, feel free to post them here before you vote and I'll be sure to reply. And for everyone's benefit please try to post why you voted (or didn't vote) for certain players, as that type of insight can be as valuable (if not more so) than the actual voting totals.

    Next week we'll return to regular cage matches, and the combatants will be two that I selected from this group of underperformers, so be sure to come back see if indeed their struggle is real.
    DobberHockey Senior Writer (columnist since 2012)
    Click here to read my weekly Cage Match column, pitting two similar NHLers against each other to determine which one is better for your fantasy team: http://www.dobberhockey.com/Table/Ho...me/Cage-Match/


  2. #2
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    Default Re: CAGE MATCH TOURNAMENT #2 - The Struggle Is Real - VOTE HERE

    Voted for Ryan Palat TyJo and Muzzin...just done see these guys doin it again
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  3. #3
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    Default Re: CAGE MATCH TOURNAMENT #2 - The Struggle Is Real - VOTE HERE

    This one's easy... Wheeler will never sniff 70 again

    In terms of just this season, Kopi is a lock to miss his projection lol, but I wouldn't write him off in future years yet.

    - - - Updated - - -

    This one's easy... Wheeler will never sniff 70 again

    In terms of just this season, Kopi is a lock to miss his projection lol, but I wouldn't write him off in future years yet.

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    Default Re: CAGE MATCH TOURNAMENT #2 - The Struggle Is Real - VOTE HERE

    Toewes... As that Hawks offence gets shallower as does his chance at hitting his numbers. Have to agree with Wheeler too
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    Default Re: CAGE MATCH TOURNAMENT #2 - The Struggle Is Real - VOTE HERE

    Wheeler & Muzzin

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    Default Re: CAGE MATCH TOURNAMENT #2 - The Struggle Is Real - VOTE HERE

    Shocked that Muzzin is leading this poll... he's only 27 and has put up two consecutive 40 point years lol

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    Default Re: CAGE MATCH TOURNAMENT #2 - The Struggle Is Real - VOTE HERE

    Quote Originally Posted by blayze View Post
    Shocked that Muzzin is leading this poll... he's only 27 and has put up two consecutive 40 point years lol
    Me too, but it shows why I didn't want to include Boedker or Vlasic. I think it's recency bias at work - folks see low current totals and assume the worst going forward.
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  8. #8
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    Default Re: CAGE MATCH TOURNAMENT #2 - The Struggle Is Real - VOTE HERE

    The column is now live (http://www.dobberhockey.com/hockey-h...-back-to-form/) and the first post is updated accordingly.
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    Click here to read my weekly Cage Match column, pitting two similar NHLers against each other to determine which one is better for your fantasy team: http://www.dobberhockey.com/Table/Ho...me/Cage-Match/


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    Default Re: CAGE MATCH TOURNAMENT #2 - The Struggle Is Real - VOTE HERE

    Just Johnson and Smith for me. The rest of them I have some degree of faith in.
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    Default Re: CAGE MATCH TOURNAMENT #2 - The Struggle Is Real - VOTE HERE

    Just Johnson for me as well... his 14-15 season was a total anomaly, a true case of a small kid catching teams by surprise upon first exposure.. His points/60 are now back to the same numbers he posted in his seasons with minimal ice time, and its going to be very tough for him to boost that when teams have already caught onto him
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    D: Leddy, Parayko, Provorov, Lindell
    G: Talbot, Mason, Mrazek
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    D: Burns, Ekman-Larsson, Yandle, Niskanen, Orlov, Bowey
    G: Talbot, Quick, Lehner

  11. #11
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    Default Re: CAGE MATCH TOURNAMENT #2 - The Struggle Is Real - VOTE HERE

    I don't think it's such a stretch to see Johnson posting 60 again at some point over the next few years. Very achievable.

  12. #12
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    Default Re: CAGE MATCH TOURNAMENT #2 - The Struggle Is Real - VOTE HERE

    A whole bunch of D for me...Barrie, Carlson, Ekman-Larsson, Josi and then Wheeler.

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    Default Re: CAGE MATCH TOURNAMENT #2 - The Struggle Is Real - VOTE HERE

    Voted for:
    Ekman-Larsson & Josi: 57 is a lot for a defenseman, and while I think Arizona is going to score more in seasons to come, since they can't get much worse, I'm not sure OEL get to 57. I but am much less certain that Nashville has as much room for offensive production growth, and Josi has to hit the same 57 point number.

    Kopitar: I think he's really good, but the Kings offense is fading, he's aging, and while I can envision multiple 60 point pace seasons moving forward, I don't think 70+ is happening in anything remotely approaching a full season.

    Ryan: I probably should've also voted for Brassard, but Ryan's usage isn't good, and this year was supposed to be a rebound year, and it doesn't look like it at all.

    Smith: Honestly, it took me a minute or so to remember who he is. That's never a good sign in something like this. I think Florida is moving backwards fast, and he doesn't have the talent level to overcome a poor situation.
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  14. #14
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    Default Re: CAGE MATCH TOURNAMENT #2 - The Struggle Is Real - VOTE HERE

    Surprises so far (to me at least):

    Tavares being among the top half of vote getters - Maybe I could see this if he was signed with the Islanders for 6 more years, but he can escape as a UFA in less than 18 months and will still be in his prime. To me, he should have hope for a point per game season yet to come, if not a full fledged career ressurection.

    Eberle not getting more votes - he just doesn't have a connection with McDavid, and I'd think that all but assures he'll be put into a role where even 60 points would be a stretch

    Wheeler not being in the top 5 vote getters - It's not just the emergence of the young guys which hurts him, but also the reality that he'd never hit 70 before last season, so it's harder to see him getting back there again even in the normal course
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  15. #15
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    Default Re: CAGE MATCH TOURNAMENT #2 - The Struggle Is Real - VOTE HERE

    In a points only keeper I have nine of the players in this poll... that explains a lot.
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