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Thread: The Benefits of Pairings on Your Squad

  1. #16
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    Default Re: The Benefits of Pairings on Your Squad

    yes precisely it is a risky way to go because like you said you can be devastated by a bad game and past two seasons owning G and Voracek I've basically thrown plus minus out the window but winning multiple titles across two leagues past 3 years I am sold on fact it means nothing if you dominate other cats. When it is a deadly duo a la Seguin/Benn you are more than likely to get those good nights than bad.
    Doughty Deeds Done Dirt Cheap
    12 team redraft (G,A,+/-,PIM,PPP,GWG,FOW,ATOI,SOG,HIT) (W, SV, SO, GAA, SV%)

    Forward: Eichel, Stamkos, Skinner, Trocheck, Stepan, Little, Horvat, Dubinsky, Duchene, Zibanejad, Mantha, Perron, Connor, Johansson
    Defense: Karlsson, OEL, Leddy, Provorov, Orlov, Lindell
    Goalies: Talbot, Lundqvist, Hellebuyck
    IR: Getzlaf, Carter

    The Peter North Stars
    12 team keep 8 (G,A,+/-,PIM,PPP,ATOI,BLK,SOG,HIT)
    (W, SV, GAA, SV%, SO)
    C: Backstrom, Dubinsky, Zibanejad, Duchene

    RW: Simmonds, Boeser, Anderson, Gallagher

    LW: Ehlers, Skinner, Lee, Connor

    D: Hedman, Josi, Ristolainen Leddy, Provorov, Barrie
    G: Jones, ​Lehner, Jarry
    IR: Murray

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    Default Re: The Benefits of Pairings on Your Squad

    Even if two linemates heat up you still need others on your team to heat up as well (independently of those two) in order to have a great week overall.


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    Default Re: The Benefits of Pairings on Your Squad

    agreed but the team went 19-2-1 in the reg. season that year so no issue there. You can see the team in it's entirety a couple posts back to give you an idea of the well rounded-ness. Team was not solely reliant upon Stars duo, Markov and Subban were honestly the tandem that killed my opposition as they gave me 110 points combined from the back end and killed it in multiple other cats. Dubnyk also put up video game numbers post deadline trade to Minnesota.
    Doughty Deeds Done Dirt Cheap
    12 team redraft (G,A,+/-,PIM,PPP,GWG,FOW,ATOI,SOG,HIT) (W, SV, SO, GAA, SV%)

    Forward: Eichel, Stamkos, Skinner, Trocheck, Stepan, Little, Horvat, Dubinsky, Duchene, Zibanejad, Mantha, Perron, Connor, Johansson
    Defense: Karlsson, OEL, Leddy, Provorov, Orlov, Lindell
    Goalies: Talbot, Lundqvist, Hellebuyck
    IR: Getzlaf, Carter

    The Peter North Stars
    12 team keep 8 (G,A,+/-,PIM,PPP,ATOI,BLK,SOG,HIT)
    (W, SV, GAA, SV%, SO)
    C: Backstrom, Dubinsky, Zibanejad, Duchene

    RW: Simmonds, Boeser, Anderson, Gallagher

    LW: Ehlers, Skinner, Lee, Connor

    D: Hedman, Josi, Ristolainen Leddy, Provorov, Barrie
    G: Jones, ​Lehner, Jarry
    IR: Murray

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    Default Re: The Benefits of Pairings on Your Squad

    There's still nothing in there that points to the duos being the specific reason for your team's success. So Markov and Subban had a good year. Yay! Subban and a productive dman from another team would have also given you great results.


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    Default Re: The Benefits of Pairings on Your Squad

    You're absolutely right but they certainly did not do anything to hinder my chances and I love seeing my squad get 2 PPP on 1 goal.
    Doughty Deeds Done Dirt Cheap
    12 team redraft (G,A,+/-,PIM,PPP,GWG,FOW,ATOI,SOG,HIT) (W, SV, SO, GAA, SV%)

    Forward: Eichel, Stamkos, Skinner, Trocheck, Stepan, Little, Horvat, Dubinsky, Duchene, Zibanejad, Mantha, Perron, Connor, Johansson
    Defense: Karlsson, OEL, Leddy, Provorov, Orlov, Lindell
    Goalies: Talbot, Lundqvist, Hellebuyck
    IR: Getzlaf, Carter

    The Peter North Stars
    12 team keep 8 (G,A,+/-,PIM,PPP,ATOI,BLK,SOG,HIT)
    (W, SV, GAA, SV%, SO)
    C: Backstrom, Dubinsky, Zibanejad, Duchene

    RW: Simmonds, Boeser, Anderson, Gallagher

    LW: Ehlers, Skinner, Lee, Connor

    D: Hedman, Josi, Ristolainen Leddy, Provorov, Barrie
    G: Jones, ​Lehner, Jarry
    IR: Murray

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    Default Re: The Benefits of Pairings on Your Squad

    This was a fun/interesting read, thank you for sharing your thoughts Luigi and everyone else. I've always tried to pair players together, specifically for power play points, it just makes sense. Getting multiple fantasy points on a single goal is always a delight I am apart of a pool where we get together at a bar, hold a live draft and once the draft is over, that's it. No adds/drops or trades. The team you draft is the team you have all season. It is a points only. This is the pool I especially try to pair guys up in. This past season I was really looking forward to the Nashville power play and managed to draft Subban, Josi and Johansen. It didn't end up working out all that greatly between the Subban injury and Nashville's power play being middle of the road but I stick by that strategy and would do it again in the future.

    In a head-to-head format, I agree it is a bit more risky but I still like the idea. There have been great arguments for and against this strategy but I still like it and like someone above me has said, it makes watching games much more interesting. So now, I come to you guys and ask me if I went overboard here. I just made a trade (with fellow Dobber guy, Eskimo Brother) and the thought behind this was to pair guys up again. This trade was agreed upon before stumbling onto this thread, fyi. The league is in my signature, limited keeper, keep 6 forwards. I had Barkov, EB had Scheifele. The kicker is I already owned Laine and Ehlers. When EB made Scheifele available I pounced. Now if you compare Barkov to Scheifele, points and peripherals are pretty even with the edge in points going to Scheifele this past season. Now the cost to acquire Scheifele was 4 rounds and roughly 50 drafts spots. First 11 rounds are reserved for keepers. I sent Barkov + a Round 14 (3rd) pick to EB in exchange for Scheifele + Round 18 (7th). Without taking into account Barkov's injury history and Scheifele possibly regressing next season, and looking at this from a purely pairing point of view, what do you think? I'm not asking to rate the trade because I believe the trade was a good one for both teams, EB is a very smart fantasy guy. I want opinions from my side of the deal. Is pairing up 3 forwards from a single team too much? If they end up being Winnipeg's top line and/or PP1 unit next year I could be laughing with Wheeler (and to an extent Little) being the only two players in the way of this happening.

    Not trying to hijack the thread but thought this could be used as a good example for both sides of the argument. Thanks guys.
    League Commissioner: Pat Quinn Memorial Cup (PQMC) - http://forums.dobbersports.com/showt...ial-Cup-(PQMC)
    12 Team Head-to-Head 24 Man Roster. Keep: 6 Forwards / 4 Defencemen / 1 Goaltender
    Categories: G-A-PPP-SOG-FW-HIT-BLK / W-GAA-SV%
    Team: Clouds of Blood
    Keepers:
    Forsberg - McDavid - Marner
    Ehlers - Scheifele - Laine

    Hedman - Ekman-Larsson
    Barrie - McAvoy

    Dubnyk

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    Default Re: The Benefits of Pairings on Your Squad

    I guess I'm odd, because when I look at trading Barkov + 3rd for Scheifele + 7th, I rate it without considering the fact that you have other Jets players. That just seems irrelevant to me. [Would you trade McDavid for Matthews to pair up some Leafs?] I do like the deal for you, though. Probably break even this year with the pick, but beyond that....I much prefer Scheifele. I just don't trust Barkov or Florida.

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    Default Re: The Benefits of Pairings on Your Squad

    max players from any team I will roster is 3; this season in keeper I had Simmonds, Voracek and Gudas and won the title. I think beyond this amount from one team you really endanger yourself on over-reliance. They all have a bad night and goodnight plus minus cat for the week albeit just one cat but they all go cold as well in a week you pay the price.
    Doughty Deeds Done Dirt Cheap
    12 team redraft (G,A,+/-,PIM,PPP,GWG,FOW,ATOI,SOG,HIT) (W, SV, SO, GAA, SV%)

    Forward: Eichel, Stamkos, Skinner, Trocheck, Stepan, Little, Horvat, Dubinsky, Duchene, Zibanejad, Mantha, Perron, Connor, Johansson
    Defense: Karlsson, OEL, Leddy, Provorov, Orlov, Lindell
    Goalies: Talbot, Lundqvist, Hellebuyck
    IR: Getzlaf, Carter

    The Peter North Stars
    12 team keep 8 (G,A,+/-,PIM,PPP,ATOI,BLK,SOG,HIT)
    (W, SV, GAA, SV%, SO)
    C: Backstrom, Dubinsky, Zibanejad, Duchene

    RW: Simmonds, Boeser, Anderson, Gallagher

    LW: Ehlers, Skinner, Lee, Connor

    D: Hedman, Josi, Ristolainen Leddy, Provorov, Barrie
    G: Jones, ​Lehner, Jarry
    IR: Murray

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    Default Re: The Benefits of Pairings on Your Squad

    ^Depends.
    In statistics, the two most referenced (important) calculations are "mean" and "standard deviation".
    Where is the average?
    How spread out are the data?

    People have made statements about why pairings are important or why they are not.
    And it's a bit like stock market.
    What we hear most often is - you should just buy the best long-term stocks.
    However- the rewards for fantasy hockey are for "top finisher".
    So - if you aren't the leader, maybe that strategy - DIVERSIFICATION - isn't the most

    Let's take a standard 12-team league.
    In an initial draft, each team has draft picks.
    It should be set up fairly evenly such that all teams have equal "assets" among their draft picks.
    Let's say there's 600 "points" distributed evenly... that's 50 points per team.

    Over time, in a keeper (say), some teams get better, some teams get worse.
    But the collective value of all teams remains at 600 points.
    In many H2H leagues, the top team is going to have a winning percentage around .650.
    In many H2H leagues, the bottom team is going to have a winning percentage around .350.
    The other teams will be in the middle.

    If we gave a 1-100 value on each team, it would be similar:
    Team #1: 65
    Team #2: 60
    Team #3: 56
    Team #4-#9: 55-45
    Team #10: 44
    Team #11: 40
    Team #12: 35

    The top 6 teams, perhaps (range 50-65) make H2H playoffs.

    Let's say its a shallow roster team: 6F/4D/2G.
    And let's say its a shallow cat total: 5 skater cats, 2 goalie cats.

    The shallower the data, the more likely an "upset" can be.
    ESPN has cool stuff like calculated "likelihood of victory".
    Vegas does the same thing.
    What's the chance on any given night that a .650 team will beat a .500 team?

    [get to in Peng... get to it...]

    OK - here:
    If you are the .650 team, you are the best team.
    You put yourself at safer, more likely chance of victory with a distribution of players from different teams.
    You put yourself at greater risk of chance of victory with a group of players from same team. If team stinks, half your team might stink.

    The converse is true.
    Say you are a .500 team, you are unlikely to beat the .650 team given standard statistical distribution.
    However, if you have data-groupings... then if 3 "same team" players have a really big scoring night... you've got a chance to upset.

    Pairing players has REAL value, if you are not the best team and you need to pray for an upset in H2H playoffs.
    If you believe you are smartest GM in league, then you should just draft best players - as your team need no "upset luck" (i.e. statistical unlikelihoods that can happen sometimes, <50%)

    The one remark I make, that many people miss is that there is real value of having three guys on a team all suck together!
    And THAT is... you finish in last place... because in fantasy hockey, you can be REWARDED with a top draft pick in the next year's draft.

    So - it's absolutely inaccurate to say, with regard to fantasy hockey, that only one method is better.

    No pairing is certainly better for a top team, statistically.
    But pairing has definite upside for anybody chasing the top team.

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    Default Re: The Benefits of Pairings on Your Squad

    Is .650 really the standard for a top team? This is just one example but in my H2H league we had four teams above that mark (.947, .842, .842, .763). Zero chance of that turning into a lottery pick. A down year would put those teams at, well, .650.


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    UHL Calgary Flames
    24-team H2H Roto Dynasty (G, A, GWG, SHP, PPP, PIM, +/, SOG, Hits, Blks, FOW, W, SV, SV%, GAA, SO)

    Eastern Edge article archive

    Find me on Twitter for questions and chatter @DH_EricDaoust.

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    Default Re: The Benefits of Pairings on Your Squad

    I won keeper with .695 win % and came in 2nd in redraft with .857 so there is variance all over, both 12 team leagues.
    Doughty Deeds Done Dirt Cheap
    12 team redraft (G,A,+/-,PIM,PPP,GWG,FOW,ATOI,SOG,HIT) (W, SV, SO, GAA, SV%)

    Forward: Eichel, Stamkos, Skinner, Trocheck, Stepan, Little, Horvat, Dubinsky, Duchene, Zibanejad, Mantha, Perron, Connor, Johansson
    Defense: Karlsson, OEL, Leddy, Provorov, Orlov, Lindell
    Goalies: Talbot, Lundqvist, Hellebuyck
    IR: Getzlaf, Carter

    The Peter North Stars
    12 team keep 8 (G,A,+/-,PIM,PPP,ATOI,BLK,SOG,HIT)
    (W, SV, GAA, SV%, SO)
    C: Backstrom, Dubinsky, Zibanejad, Duchene

    RW: Simmonds, Boeser, Anderson, Gallagher

    LW: Ehlers, Skinner, Lee, Connor

    D: Hedman, Josi, Ristolainen Leddy, Provorov, Barrie
    G: Jones, ​Lehner, Jarry
    IR: Murray

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    Default Re: The Benefits of Pairings on Your Squad

    Quote Originally Posted by ericdaoust View Post
    Is .650 really the standard for a top team? This is just one example but in my H2H league we had four teams above that mark (.947, .842, .842, .763). Zero chance of that turning into a lottery pick. A down year would put those teams at, well, .650.
    I should clarify.

    In "one win per category", yes, .650 will be around the top mark in a league with competitive GMs who don't totally sacrifice all assets to "tank" or "go for it" (NHL).
    In "one win per match-up", and it the GM level is scattered (some good GMs, some bad GMs, some GMs that are "all in", some GMs that are "complete" rebuild) then you'll get a huge range - non-standard.

    The NHL and MLB are very competitive leagues with large data (82, 162gp) and several contributing players - these most closely mimic fantasy hockey with our 12-20 player rosters.
    The mean NHL point total per team is 92pts per year - call this .500
    Therefore 46pts would be .250... and 138pts would be .750
    Note that the NHL pretty much never has .250 or .750 teams.
    So yes, .650 is going to be around the top team.
    (I'm not picking it arbitrarily, I've been a sports & fantasy stat enthusiast for 30+ years).

    On the converse side, we see NFL teams often at .800+ (13-3), and the NFL is similar to "one-win" H2H leagues where maybe there are 21 weeks and a team goes 20-1 (.952).
    And we see NBA teams often at .800+ and .200-... but these are contests where it is 1 or 2 or 3 superstars (GSW, LeBron Cavs, etc.) controling the outcome, so... not at all like fantasy hockey.

    But regardless on the league "win" system, or player roster,
    The tact remains the same - if there is a POWERHOUSE team in a league... there needs to be some luck in knocking them off during H2H.
    And the best way to do that... is hope you can roll double 6s. (or triple 6s).
    Or mothafuggin Yahtzee sixes!


    (and yes, Peng crush all y'all at Yahtzee.)

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    Default Re: The Benefits of Pairings on Your Squad

    Quote Originally Posted by Pengwin7 View Post
    The tact remains the same - if there is a POWERHOUSE team in a league... there needs to be some luck in knocking them off during H2H.
    Alternative view: If there is a POWERHOUSE team in the league... it should be YOU.

    Don't settle for less. After all, that's why this site exists.


    Send me a PM if you have any issues or requests for Frozen Pool!


    UHL Calgary Flames
    24-team H2H Roto Dynasty (G, A, GWG, SHP, PPP, PIM, +/, SOG, Hits, Blks, FOW, W, SV, SV%, GAA, SO)

    Eastern Edge article archive

    Find me on Twitter for questions and chatter @DH_EricDaoust.

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    Default Re: The Benefits of Pairings on Your Squad

    Quote Originally Posted by ericdaoust View Post
    Alternative view: If there is a POWERHOUSE team in the league... it should be YOU.

    Don't settle for less. After all, that's why this site exists.
    Love it!
    You da man!
    ericdaoust - motivational speaker!!!

    (because this the guy that came up when I google imaged: motivational speaker powerhouse)

  15. #30
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    Default Re: The Benefits of Pairings on Your Squad

    Quote Originally Posted by Pengwin7 View Post
    OK - here:
    If you are the .650 team, you are the best team.
    You put yourself at safer, more likely chance of victory with a distribution of players from different teams.
    You put yourself at greater risk of chance of victory with a group of players from same team. If team stinks, half your team might stink.

    The converse is true.
    Say you are a .500 team, you are unlikely to beat the .650 team given standard statistical distribution.
    However, if you have data-groupings... then if 3 "same team" players have a really big scoring night... you've got a chance to upset.

    Pairing players has REAL value, if you are not the best team and you need to pray for an upset in H2H playoffs.
    If you believe you are smartest GM in league, then you should just draft best players - as your team need no "upset luck" (i.e. statistical unlikelihoods that can happen sometimes, <50%).
    100% agree with this.
    12 team H-2-H 1 year league, daily roster changes, 3 goalie start minimum/week
    2xC, 2xRW, 2xLW, 4xD, 3xUtil, 2xG, 5 Bench
    G, A, P, +/-, PIM, PPP, SHP, GWG, Hits, W, SV%, GAA, SVs
    C: Eichel, Kopitar, Backlund, Toews
    LW:M. Pacioretty, A. Lee, J. Skinner, E. Kane, Galchenyuk, Foligno
    RW: Wheeler, Palmeiri, M. Granlund (MIN)(C/RW),
    D: Yandle, Gardner, Phaneuf, Trouba
    G:Talbot, Dubnyk, Mason

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