5th and 24th pick for 13th and 16th

[Sharp999]

i've been offered 13th and 16th overall pick for my 5th and 24th overall which is basically my 1st and 2nd for his. Should i do the trade? suggestions? opinions?

[Bass56]

1) Love your avatar
2) Need wayyyyyyyy more info here: are the pics for prospects? If so, which ones (this year's batch, other years combined, are NHLers available, ...)?
3) Are you able to list your team to see what your needs may be?

[Sharp999]

1) Love your avatar
2) Need wayyyyyyyy more info here: are the pics for prospects? If so, which ones (this year's batch, other years combined, are NHLers available, ...)?
3) Are you able to list your team to see what your needs may be?

lol tnx, the picks are for a 14 team one year h2h league. the categories are in my signature

[Pengwin7]

Decline. Keep the 5th.
Gaussian distribution (fancy stat talk) suggests that the more extreme picks have more value.

As an example, try this.
Add the 5th & 24th NHL scorers from the past season or two or three... try a couple cases.
Add the 13th & 16th NHL scorers from the past season or two or three..

Compare.
5th/24th will (over a large enough sample size) shake out as the higher sum of two.

In standard one-year snaking drafts, a team should (should!) want as high a draft pick as possible.
I always laugh when somebody makes any lament over having the #1 or #2 pick ("oh, but what if I miss the goalie run"... psh).

Now... this said... there is some "value added" to being just-off-the-turn.
You can basically watchdog the turn team at 14/15.
If he has 0C/2LW/0RW/3D/2G later in draft, you can pretty well assure yourself that if you are considering between a RW & D... you better take the RW first... because he needs one.
You could also have a better likelihood of landing a tandem-goalie pair like Fleury/Murray with two consecutive near-turn picks... or Niemi/Lehtonen later in draft.
But that's about the only advantage I see there.

5/24 for this guy.

[Bass56]

Decline. Keep the 5th.
Gaussian distribution (fancy stat talk) suggests that the more extreme picks have more value.

As an example, try this.
Add the 5th & 24th NHL scorers from the past season or two or three... try a couple cases.
Add the 13th & 16th NHL scorers from the past season or two or three..

Compare.
5th/24th will (over a large enough sample size) shake out as the higher sum of two.

In standard one-year snaking drafts, a team should (should!) want as high a draft pick as possible.
I always laugh when somebody makes any lament over having the #1 or #2 pick ("oh, but what if I miss the goalie run"... psh).

Now... this said... there is some "value added" to being just-off-the-turn.
You can basically watchdog the turn team at 14/15.
If he has 0C/2LW/0RW/3D/2G later in draft, you can pretty well assure yourself that if you are considering between a RW & D... you better take the C first... because he needs one.
You could also have a better likelihood of landing a tandem-goalie pair like Fleury/Murray with two consecutive near-turn picks... or Niemi/Lehtonen later in draft.
But that's about the only advantage I see there.

5/24 for this guy.

^ Nerd

But ya, what he said

[Pengwin7]

[Sulla]

If only fantasy leagues needed paid cap and pick advisers.. P7 would have a full time job!

[Sharp999]

Decline. Keep the 5th.
Gaussian distribution (fancy stat talk) suggests that the more extreme picks have more value.

As an example, try this.
Add the 5th & 24th NHL scorers from the past season or two or three... try a couple cases.
Add the 13th & 16th NHL scorers from the past season or two or three..

Compare.
5th/24th will (over a large enough sample size) shake out as the higher sum of two.

In standard one-year snaking drafts, a team should (should!) want as high a draft pick as possible.
I always laugh when somebody makes any lament over having the #1 or #2 pick ("oh, but what if I miss the goalie run"... psh).

Now... this said... there is some "value added" to being just-off-the-turn.
You can basically watchdog the turn team at 14/15.
If he has 0C/2LW/0RW/3D/2G later in draft, you can pretty well assure yourself that if you are considering between a RW & D... you better take the RW first... because he needs one.
You could also have a better likelihood of landing a tandem-goalie pair like Fleury/Murray with two consecutive near-turn picks... or Niemi/Lehtonen later in draft.
But that's about the only advantage I see there.

5/24 for this guy.

I'm only trading the 1st and 2nd round picks tho so if i were to trade for the 13th and 16th i would draft again at 33rd pick and i wont be going almost back to back after the first 2 rounds. The reason I'm considering this is so i can almost assure myself a stud forward and grab either karlsson or burns with the second pick. The forwards wont be ovi crosby kane or benn but someone like giroux perry or malkin. Thoughts?

[Pengwin7]

I'm only trading the 1st and 2nd round picks tho so if i were to trade for the 13th and 16th i would draft again at 33rd pick and i wont be going almost back to back after the first 2 rounds. The reason I'm considering this is so i can almost assure myself a stud forward and grab either karlsson or burns with the second pick. The forwards wont be ovi crosby kane or benn but someone like giroux perry or malkin. Thoughts?

I understand.
5th/24th > 13th/16th.

I'll do the example for you, because it doesn't sound like you've tried it out.
NHL #5 scorer last year: 82pts
NHL #24 scorer last year: 64pts
TOT: 148pts

NHL #13 scorer last year: 74pts
NHL #16 scorer last year: 70pts
TOT: 144pts

It's going to be like this for most years.

No offense, but if you have positional allocations (#F/#D) there is ZERO chance Karlsson slides to #13 if your leaguemates have a shred of keenness for this kind of league format.
By relative difference, Karlsson should probably be the 3rd skater off the board in most straight-points positional leagues: Crosby, McDavid, Karlsson.
He may not even make it to you at #5.

[Burns... he might be there at 13/16...]

If you want an apples-to-apples... force yourself to consider what you will LIKELY have a chance to draft at each, and consider 1F+1D for both cases:
Karlsson (78pts @ #5) + Forsberg (65pts @ #24)
vs.
Burns (65pts @ #13) + Kopitar (73pt F @ #16)

143 vs. 138

[Sharp999]

understood, tnx man appreciate it