Re: 2016/17 Dobber Pro - Wales League
This was a tough draft for me, and not just for the usual reasons (i.e., you know the competition is fierce). I had a lot of issues with the Yahoo draft page early on -- the page kept freezing and I kept getting booted out. At round 3~ or so, I changed browsers and that helped a lot. Every time I used the search function to create my queue, early on, I was getting booted out. On top of that, we only had 60 seconds to pick. We you combine those two factors together, the circumstances of the first few rounds were, for me, disorienting -- there was scrambling just to get logged back in and identify who was available or not.
I had the #3 spot, and had been planning on taking Benn or Holby, because I assumed that OV and then Crosby would go first. So I didn't even think of Crosby as a possibility. In spite of any injury concerns, I decided against a goalie here because I felt like there would be no PPG players available at pick #24, and so went with Crosby.
My picks at rounds 2 and 3 were made under duress, described above. I had a bunch of goalies queued up, was booted out, and came back 1 pick before my own 2nd pick. I had 60 secs to try to figure out who was available, and a lot of my queue disappeared. I lost track of Rask and thought he was gone, and I ended up opting for Schneider, thinking his good GAA and SV peripherals will make up for the 5-7 fewer wins he's likely to get me over comparables. In the long run, Schneider might be the better pick anyway, even if I dislike NJ. I had about 2 mins after that to debate the next move, and I decided I didn't want to get stuck with sifting through the bargain bin at pick #50, so I opted for Crawford. I figure Crawford will get me 30+ wins, 1500+ SVs, and a 2.3~ ish GAA.
One thing I wanted to make sure I did this year was pick guys who helped me the most, and hurt me the least. That sounds common sense, I know, so I'll explain. I went through my FHG-generated list using Dobber's projections and 'coded' the players. I highlighted in red individual columns for players like to produce 25+ goals, 35+ assists, have a good +/- season, 200+ SOG, 100+ HIT -- and by contrast, I highlighted in blue individual columns for players likely to produce 10 or under goals, 20 or under assists, have a poor +/-season, 150 or less SOG, 50 or less HIT, and whose projected GP'd fell under 70. My goal here was to make sure I wasn't drafting guys who carry 'negative value' -- i.e., players who produce, say, 60 points, but who are likely to have terrible +/-, or low SOG or HIT, or likely to be injured. I had a lot of guys like that on my roster last year, and they were hurting me when I played them, even when they produced, and they were players whose perceived trade value took a hit as a result. So this year, I decided to be very careful to pick guys with lots of 'red' in their columns, and to avoid guys with a lot of 'blue' in their columns.
At pick #50 in round 4, I took Josi, one of the last big producing D left. I waffled a lot with the next pick, but ended up taking B. Schenn. I was actually targetting Simmonds but he went a few picks before my Josi pick in round 4, but anyway, I think of Schenn as someone who brings pretty much exactly the same thing as Simmonds to the table -- 5~ less goals, 5-10 more A, similar +/-, PPP, SOG, and HIT. My strategy of picking across the board contributors, too, meant that he was more attractive than, say, Johansen or Voracek or Eberle -- players who went soon after and who may well put up a few more points, but whose columns didn't have as many items highlighted in red on my sheet.
That pattern continued for me in the next rounds, when I selected Backes (76) and Hornqvist (81). While both guys are probably going to hover around 50~ points, they each have good potential for 25~ goals, Hornqvist is a SOG boost, Backes is a HIT boost, and neither is likely to hurt me in the +/- category.
One thing I wasn't watching enough as a result of my approach, however, is total # of points the players were likely to produce, and PPP totals. I became aware of this issue around this time, and as a result picked Galchenyuk (102) and Suter (107), hoping to add more points and PPP in general. I also didn't like that I only had 1 D before this and the pickings were already starting to get thin. On the points/PPP front, I know that I'll probably have to make some moves there to ship out some across-the-board contributors for some more pure points guys, but my feeling is that because the guys I'm targeted are likely have over-average stats in some categories and few under-average stats that detract from player value I'll be able to move pieces to address holes as I identify them.
The next round, I went back to the planned strategy of looking for guys who would contribute above-average stats in some areas without paying out below average stats in other areas, and selected Kesler (128) and Kreider (133). They're not Backes and Hornqvist, but 50 picks later, they were as close as I could find and should provide SOG and HIT boosts, decent goals, middling assists. At this stage, I'm seeing that I only have 2 RWs and 2 D, however, and I know I have to address that very soon.
A few RWs I was targeting with my 12th round pick disappeared right before me, so I focused instead on getting a D, Leddy. Leddy is my first pick were I'm starting to get some columns highlighted in blue -- lower SOG, HIT, and +/- concerns. But I need a Dman, and I need points and PPP, and to be he's the best remaining option. The next pick, I decide some GMs have been taking it for granted that there will be serviceable starters left for them late in the draft, since most GMs drafted 2 goalies in the top 5 rounds, so I pick Anderson up with pick 159. It's a bit off the board in terms of my needs, but I know he's good for 30~ wins and lots of SV, while his GAA is a bit of a wild card. But he's a good insurance policy for me in the event of a major injury to my starters, and he's good trade bait for a team who was planning on getting a starter for cheap.
I'm still not liking my RW options when things get back to me, so I rinse and repeat, taking Stone (#180) and Greiss (#185). Stone is one of those guys on my sheet with a few of columns in red (A, HIT), but who is also a +/- concern. Seeing Anderson in my queue two rounds back made me think more about what good goalie value is left, and I was surprised and happy to be able to pick up Greiss so late in the draft. Worst case, he's a good backup who gets 30~ games; best case, he's the starting goalie by January. Either way, I pick up the extra games I need to get to 164 GP'd at the G slot and/or add a good trading chip.
In the 16th and 17th rounds, I've got my eye on Nino for my next RWer but figure I can let that slide one more pass. So I take Hartnell (#206) and Brodie (#211). At this stage, it's hard to avoid taking players who have columns highlighted blue, but I'm doing the best I can. Hartnell provides average G, A, SOG, and PPP, a HIT boost, and a +/- risk. He's the third +/- risk I've taken on, and I'm pretty much at my ceiling on that front as a result. Brodie, meanwhile, projects for below-average stats in a lot of areas (G, SOG, HIT), but I know I'm short on points and a sure-thing 40-45 point Dman is very attractive at this point.
After losing out on Nino a few picks after Brodie, I target Johansson, who remains available to me at pick 232. He stands to give me some A and PPP, without hurting me by producing below average stats in other areas. 5 picks later, I take Ceci. My hope is that he can reach 30-points alongside Phaneuf and continue to put up OK peripherals without being a guy who hurts my team in other areas.
With my last 5 picks, I'm mostly filling up my bench. I take Pageau at 258 and Ellis at 263. Pageau offers 40~ points, good +/-, average SOG, and a HIT boost, whereas Ellis is looking like the safest bet to produce 30~ points without have a lot of warning signs in terms of negative contributions. I'm pleasantly surprised to find Perrault still available at pick 284, and then round off the evening by taking fliers on Pominville, Granlund, and Stafford.
Overall, I mostly like this team. I have solid goaltending, with excess to trade away to file some holes. I have a lot of guys who bring a good mix of above average stats in areas like G, SOG, and HIT, and I limited my intake of guys who are high risk in the +/- and injury departments or who otherwise are likely to produce below average numbers in other areas. I imagine I'll have to move out a goalie as well as a multi-cat guy or two to bring in a few players likely to produce 60+ points and 20+ PPP, but otherwise, this is a team that is built to have the most across-the-board contributors that I could get while mostly avoiding players who hurt your team even when they're producing in other areas.
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LEAGUE: keeper -- 6 keepers per year, no farm; roto; 10 managers, 18-man rosters; 2 C, 2 LW, 2 RW, 4 D, 1 UTIL, 2 G, 5 Bench; limits of 99 games per skater position & 82 games per goalie position; daily roster moves; max 100 waiver wire transactions per year; scoring categories of G, A, +/-, HIT, PPP, SOG, DEF (points by d-men), W, GAA, SA%, and SV.
ROSTER:
C: Draisaitl* (LW), Dubois, Nelson
LW: Svechnikov* (RW), Hagel
RW: Kucherov*, Tarasenko, Wilson, Stone, Laine, Reinhart, P. Kane (IR)
D: Fox*, Karlsson*, Chabot (IR), Faulk, Martinez
G:: Vasilevskiy*, Vanecek, Adin, Knight (IR)
* = 2023 keepers