How to gauge when to take a dman over a forward

[StuntMan12]

Where's P7 when you need him? Personally if you are dressing 4 d men then I would argue if that d man is within 10-2 points of the forward I take the d man first - especially with elite guys as the drop off is quick from 50 point d men to low 40s

I think this is a good idea. Last year when I was going all in on forwards in the first 6 rounds I suddenly changed my plan when Keith Yandle was still available and was a 50-55 pt d man and was the best bang for my buck I though. Sure enough that pick payed dividends and am thankful I picked at least one good D man (other was trouba).

I try not to think of it as D points = X amount of F points, but rather replacement value and tiers, and which pick you have affects it as well.

Ex. Lets simplify it and say it's points only. Karlsson is in a league of his own. Then there are guys like Burns, Letang, Subban etc. Then guys like Yandle, Barrie, Hedman and so on. You need to look at how difficult it is to replace a certain tier defenseman vs a forward. If forwards in the Landeskog, Hornqvist, Saad range are going but defensemen like Josi are available then you exploit that. For me I like to either start or end a particular run, mostly because there are noticeable gaps from the very elite to the great, and the great to the above average.

So using Dmen, if Karlsson, Burns, Letang, etc are gone, I might swoop in and get a Malkin or Hall knowing that there could be five players in that next tier like Yandle, Carlson, Hedman, Barrie, Keith that I'm fine with but guys like Malkin and Hall have very few peers available to draft.

Then once you choose a guy like Malkin/Hall, you can catch the end of that D run, and get a player who you valued incredibly similarly to the one taken a round or two ago.

You can use this with every position to find value. Hopefully the explanation made sense but i find of you follow the trend of everyone else drafting without exploiting those tier differences you will always be a little step behind.

Thanks a lot for this post. Gives me a lot of clarity on this issue and know who to take and when. I'm getting even more stoked, first year of actually implementing an actual strategy...well last year I made a strategy of going with forwards for my first 6 picks but i think i got a little lucky when i got thornton in the 2nd round and pavelski in the 3rd and bergeron in the 4th (24 teams). And it is no fun when you have one of the worst goalies (fantasy wise) in the leagie lol

[StuntMan12]

1ST PLACE: $500
2ND PLACE: $300
3RD PLACE: $200 <--- ME (ON LAST DAY OF GAMES THERE WAS A 3 WAY TIE FOR 1ST.......)
4TH PLACE: $100


Team 1 For example:

WON $200 CASH - 3rd place ..... 2ND PLACE BEAT ME BY 1 PT LOL
Evgeni Malkin (PIT)
Joe Pavelski (SJ)
Joe Thornton (SJ)
Patrice Bergeron (BOS)
Ryan Strome (NYI)
Marian Gaborik (LA)
Mikael Granlund (MIN)
Adam Henrique (NJ)
Ryan Spooner (BOS)
Brandon Pirri (FLA)
Cody Hodgson (NAS)

Keith Yandle (NYR)
Jacob Trouba (WPG)

Steve Mason (PHI)

-----------------------------------------------------

*TEAM WHO WON THE LEAGUE. BEAT ME OUT BY 4 PTS

Johnny Gaudreau (CGY)
Jordan Eberle (EDM)
T.J Oshie (WAS)
Colin Wilson (NAS)
Jaromir Jagr (FLA)
Elias Lindholm (CAR)
Jason Zucker (MIN)
Alex Wennberg (CBJ)
Chris Stewart (ANA)
Anthony Duclair (ARI)

Erik Karlsson (OTT)
Mike Green (DET)
Zdeno Chara (BOS)

Roberto Luongo (FLA)

[ericdaoust]

One of my strategies is to track my three lists (F, D, G) as the draft progresses. When one of the three becomes "top-heavy" (1-3 solid players then a big gap) that's when I try to grab one at that position. I do this a lot in prospect drafts too - try to be on the right side of the talent drop-offs.

[StuntMan12]

Let's say you have the 5th overall pick in this draft for example. Who would be the right guy to pick?

top 8 forwards, top 2 defence, top 1 goalie count for points

1. Crosby
2. Kane
3. Benn
4. Seguin
5.

Best players availabe: Erik Karlsson, Connor McDavid, Braden Holtby, Carey Price, John Tavares, Johnny Gaudreau ect ect .... who would you go with?

Wouldn't the right choice be between Erik Karlsson or Braden Holtby since after that there is a small cliff of talent or point projections?

[NoNameAppleSauce]

Wow, this was by far the most informative thread I have read, its always nice to have real insight into how others draft their teams. I feel I have just learned a lot about the science of drafting. thanks fellas.

[ericdaoust]

Wow, this was by far the most informative thread I have read, its always nice to have real insight into how others draft their teams. I feel I have just learned a lot about the science of drafting. thanks fellas.

Glad to see it helped. That's why this place is the best!

[ztking]

Wow, this was by far the most informative thread I have read, its always nice to have real insight into how others draft their teams. I feel I have just learned a lot about the science of drafting. thanks fellas.

I've always enjoyed the science of drafting and seeing how others do it. Glad to help in any way possible!

[CascadeFilly]

I'm a big fan of the tiered approach, much like ztking explained. Group each position into tiers in which there is a noticeable drop-off, usually in groups of around 5 or so guys on average (sometimes a tier will be only 3 players, or 6 or more, but you'll have a gut feeling about where each drop-off is). Draft at will, but if a tier is at risk of being eliminated, try to get that last remaining guy (a D-man, for example) in the diminishing tier.

I've experimented with going top-heavy at each position, and I've found that going too focused at D or goal (especially with early picks) can burn you too easily, but forward-heavy teams can work. A nice distribution of assets is preferred, but if your group is going heavy on D or goal, feel free to take advantage of that and draft a bunch of point-machines at forward.

P7's always got great advice in these threads, as well, so I'd take his advice to heart, too.

[ztking]

Let's say you have the 5th overall pick in this draft for example. Who would be the right guy to pick?

top 8 forwards, top 2 defence, top 1 goalie count for points

1. Crosby
2. Kane
3. Benn
4. Seguin
5.

Best players availabe: Erik Karlsson, Connor McDavid, Braden Holtby, Carey Price, John Tavares, Johnny Gaudreau ect ect .... who would you go with?

Wouldn't the right choice be between Erik Karlsson or Braden Holtby since after that there is a small cliff of talent or point projections?

With this you also have to consider that EIGHT forwards are scored and only TWO defensemen that puts things heavily on forwards that can produce. I'd go super forward heavy knowing that with only two defensemen and one goalie being scored that fwd is where almost all your points come from. Never a bad idea taking Karlsson. But value wise I think you should wait on a goalie and D and take a couple good ones later, and try get as many 65+ fwds as you can. That way you are stocked up on the guys that are getting most of the points, and who will also be the toughest to acquire. You could trade fwds for high-end D or goalie a lot easier than the other way in this league I'd bet.

[joe jones]

With this you also have to consider that EIGHT forwards are scored and only TWO defensemen that puts things heavily on forwards that can produce. I'd go super forward heavy knowing that with only two defensemen and one goalie being scored that fwd is where almost all your points come from. Never a bad idea taking Karlsson. But value wise I think you should wait on a goalie and D and take a couple good ones later, and try get as many 65+ fwds as you can. That way you are stocked up on the guys that are getting most of the points, and who will also be the toughest to acquire. You could trade fwds for high-end D or goalie a lot easier than the other way in this league I'd bet.

This is a good discussion but I think I go top goalie or d-man here (as then you really don't have to worry about those position categories for most of the rest of your draft). Then you focus on forwards the rest of your draft, when the other managers are reaching for goalies or d-men after a run.

[Eskimo Brother]

With this you also have to consider that EIGHT forwards are scored and only TWO defensemen that puts things heavily on forwards that can produce. I'd go super forward heavy knowing that with only two defensemen and one goalie being scored that fwd is where almost all your points come from. Never a bad idea taking Karlsson. But value wise I think you should wait on a goalie and D and take a couple good ones later, and try get as many 65+ fwds as you can. That way you are stocked up on the guys that are getting most of the points, and who will also be the toughest to acquire. You could trade fwds for high-end D or goalie a lot easier than the other way in this league I'd bet.

I don't think there are trades in this league from what I understood. It's just a pick-em for the season.

[Spurgeon]

Good discussion. I usually go high-end on D for all the reasons mentioned above. However, this season might be different. There's so many strong scoring/multi-cat D's that this might be a good year to bypass the top options and grab a top G/Winger, and then accumulating 50+ pt Dman's thoughout the mid rounds.

[StuntMan12]

With this you also have to consider that EIGHT forwards are scored and only TWO defensemen that puts things heavily on forwards that can produce. I'd go super forward heavy knowing that with only two defensemen and one goalie being scored that fwd is where almost all your points come from. Never a bad idea taking Karlsson. But value wise I think you should wait on a goalie and D and take a couple good ones later, and try get as many 65+ fwds as you can. That way you are stocked up on the guys that are getting most of the points, and who will also be the toughest to acquire. You could trade fwds for high-end D or goalie a lot easier than the other way in this league I'd bet.

Oops forget to mention its a frozen league. once we take a guy he stays on our team. But i agree with the forward heavyness, my twin brother won this league before and every year he says he focuses heavily on the forwards. I would have won last season easily if Malkin didn't sit out the last 4-6 weeks with injury. Man that was deflating.

[stevegamer]

In that drafting situation, I probably take Karlsson, and then just start gobbling up forwards until I take a goalie. It gives you a very nice clarity of thought when you don't have to keep thinking about when to take a goalie or a #1 D in a start 2 league.

[StuntMan12]

In that drafting situation, I probably take Karlsson, and then just start gobbling up forwards until I take a goalie. It gives you a very nice clarity of thought when you don't have to keep thinking about when to take a goalie or a #1 D in a start 2 league.

thanks for the reply. i agree, taking karlsson does take a load off your back when looking for defence.

lol i like the way you put it.... gobbling up forwards. oh man i cant wait for this draft. should be drafting in about 3 weeks.