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Thread: How to gauge when to take a dman over a forward

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    Default How to gauge when to take a dman over a forward

    $50 1 year league
    All points
    Goal = 1 pt
    Assist = 1 pt
    Goalie Win = 2 pts
    Goalie OTL = 1 pt
    SO = 1 pt
    14 round snake draft
    25~ managers
    top 8 forwards count for points
    top 4 defence count for points
    top 1 goalie count for points

    I'm trying to put together a strategy and I was thinking at what point do you decide it's better to take the best defenceman available compared to the best forward available?

    Lets say Erik Karlsson is available and so is Jamie Benn. In my projections I have Jamie Benn with 88 pts and Erik Karlsson 78. Is it fair to value defencemen as + 20 pts for projection? like if I project Karlsson with 78 pts I think of him as a 98 pt forward and therefore take Erik Karlsson since he is worth more?

    Or am I over thinking this? lol


    Like for example:

    Dustin Byfuglien (55 proj.) or Niclas Backstrom (76 proj.)
    Dmitry Orlov (30 proj.) or Leon Draisaitl (47 proj.)

    Just trying to figure out when to take the D man over the best forward available.

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    Default Re: How to gauge when to take a dman over a forward

    I think 20 points is a little steep. You're probably looking at something like 12-15.
    You also want to pay attention to the runs. Your league mates dictate it more than points do.
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    Default Re: How to gauge when to take a dman over a forward

    Quote Originally Posted by Eskimo Brother View Post
    I think 20 points is a little steep. You're probably looking at something like 12-15.
    You also want to pay attention to the runs. Your league mates dictate it more than points do.
    Oh ok. Let's say you are in this situation:

    Early 2nd round. Best players available

    Roman Josi (60 pt proj.)
    Anze Kopitar (74 pt proj.)

    Would it be a wash? Can't go wrong with either in your opinion? if it's +15 pts then Josi would be the man to pick here right?

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    Default Re: How to gauge when to take a dman over a forward

    It's when you look at your team and realize you have 10 forwards and no defenceman ...
    I can't promise I'll try but I'll try to try.

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    Default Re: How to gauge when to take a dman over a forward

    Quote Originally Posted by VincentVega View Post
    It's when you look at your team and realize you have 10 forwards and no defenceman ...
    i did this one year lol. not fun when you have two ham and egger defencemen who get 15-20 pts.

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    Default Re: How to gauge when to take a dman over a forward

    I personally like Josi, but yeah it is close, and I'm biased there.
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    Default Re: How to gauge when to take a dman over a forward

    Quote Originally Posted by Eskimo Brother View Post
    I personally like Josi, but yeah it is close, and I'm biased there.
    ah, Nashville fan. I'll use 15 pts as the pt difference but I want at least one 50 pt d man and one 40 pt d man. Always seems to be tonnes of good forwards that are dropping throughout the draft. Having Jacob Trouba count for my points last season was frustrating when I was in contention for 1st place lol

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    Default Re: How to gauge when to take a dman over a forward

    Yeah, that's the thing. It's generally easier to find forward steals than D. I usually have my D slots filled before my F slots.
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    Default Re: How to gauge when to take a dman over a forward

    Quote Originally Posted by Eskimo Brother View Post
    Yeah, that's the thing. It's generally easier to find forward steals than D. I usually have my D slots filled before my F slots.
    I looked back on previous teams I drafted throughout the years and the teams where I picked two 40-60 pt defencemen I did very well and would have won money if not for maybe 1 or so injuries. But teams where I bought very low on d men (15-20 pt d men) i did terrible.

    Rather pick a more balanced team this time around.

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    Default Re: How to gauge when to take a dman over a forward

    Where's P7 when you need him? Personally if you are dressing 4 d men then I would argue if that d man is within 10-2 points of the forward I take the d man first - especially with elite guys as the drop off is quick from 50 point d men to low 40s
    Experience is the teacher of all things.


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    Default Re: How to gauge when to take a dman over a forward

    I try not to think of it as D points = X amount of F points, but rather replacement value and tiers, and which pick you have affects it as well.

    Ex. Lets simplify it and say it's points only. Karlsson is in a league of his own. Then there are guys like Burns, Letang, Subban etc. Then guys like Yandle, Barrie, Hedman and so on. You need to look at how difficult it is to replace a certain tier defenseman vs a forward. If forwards in the Landeskog, Hornqvist, Saad range are going but defensemen like Josi are available then you exploit that. For me I like to either start or end a particular run, mostly because there are noticeable gaps from the very elite to the great, and the great to the above average.

    So using Dmen, if Karlsson, Burns, Letang, etc are gone, I might swoop in and get a Malkin or Hall knowing that there could be five players in that next tier like Yandle, Carlson, Hedman, Barrie, Keith that I'm fine with but guys like Malkin and Hall have very few peers available to draft.

    Then once you choose a guy like Malkin/Hall, you can catch the end of that D run, and get a player who you valued incredibly similarly to the one taken a round or two ago.

    You can use this with every position to find value. Hopefully the explanation made sense but i find of you follow the trend of everyone else drafting without exploiting those tier differences you will always be a little step behind.
    Main Squad: H2H Multicat Points
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    G:3 A:2 +/-:1 PPP:0.5 PIM:0.25 Shot:0.2 Hit:0.2 Block:0.2
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    3C 3LW 3RW 5D 2G 5 BENCH 2IR

    C: Crosby, Malkin, Giroux, Getzlaf, Barkov
    LW: Ovechkin, Benn, Landeskog, E. Kane
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    Default Re: How to gauge when to take a dman over a forward

    This was a 10 team draft I did drafting out of the 10 spot, these are my picks.

    1. Tyler Seguin (Dal - C)
    2. Braden Holtby (Was - G)
    3. Phil Kessel (Pit - RW)
    4. Taylor Hall (NJ - LW)
    5. John Carlson (Was - D)
    6. John Klingberg (Dal - D)
    7. Gabriel Landeskog (Col - LW)
    8. Victor Hedman (TB - D)
    9. Alexander Radulov (Mon - RW)
    10. Sergei Bobrovsky (Cls - G)
    11. Alex Galchenyuk (Mon - C)
    12. Patric Hornqvist (Pit - RW)
    13. T.J. Brodie (Cgy - D)
    14. Anton Stralman (TB - D)
    15. Jaden Schwartz (StL - LW)
    16. Cam Talbot (Edm - G)

    First few rounds: I caught the end of the "very elite fwd" group in round one, then started off by taking (in my opinion) the best fantasy goalie. I then drafted wingers at the top of my second tier of RW and top of second tier LW while some were getting their first goalie in the goalie run or high end D. Then when some were grabbing extra forwards, I noticed some great D around, but a plethora of quality talented forward and goalies, I managed to get Carlson, Klingberg, and Hedman all within 4 rounds. After being confident I had a solid D core to start I noticed goalies and centres falling hard since everyone had already taken theirs. I got Bobrovsky in a spot where people were taking Ristolainen, Domi and Oshie, and I got Galchenyuk in a spot where people were taking Vlasic, Martinez and Craig Anderson.

    Obviously every draft is different and sometimes it doesn't go how you want, but I break positions into tiers and i like to either start, or end, each tier.
    Main Squad: H2H Multicat Points
    10 Team 16 Keepers

    G:3 A:2 +/-:1 PPP:0.5 PIM:0.25 Shot:0.2 Hit:0.2 Block:0.2
    W:3 SV:0.2 GA:-1 SO:3

    3C 3LW 3RW 5D 2G 5 BENCH 2IR

    C: Crosby, Malkin, Giroux, Getzlaf, Barkov
    LW: Ovechkin, Benn, Landeskog, E. Kane
    RW: Kessel, Perry, Hudler, Atkinson
    D: Letang, Carlson, Yandle, Rielly, Leddy
    G: Schneider, Rask, Anderson

    Prospects (5)
    Vasilevski Burakovsky Bjorkstrand Dvorak Chychrun

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    Default Re: How to gauge when to take a dman over a forward

    It can be tough managing the runs from the turn spot. Looks like you got come good talent. You covered Bob with Talbot as your G3.
    Brodie I really like as a faller in drafts. This is close to what I like to do though. First 8 picks are 4F, 3D and a G.
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    Default Re: How to gauge when to take a dman over a forward

    Relative difference of F vs. D is a simple "count" exercise in points leagues.

    1. How many teams?
    2. How many counting players at each position?

    You consider this your "waiver wire" value at the last counting player.

    Say you have 25 GMs and 8F... that's 200F in play. The #200 scoring F in the NHL typically scores 30pts.
    Say you have 25 GMs and 4D... that's 100D in play. The #100 scoring D in the NHL typically scores 18pts.
    Those are your benchmarks.

    So when you are choosing between F & D... you just do simple subtraction to what is on the table vs. those marks.
    One thing you also have to think about is how likely it is to find a "riser".

    In general, 30pt forwards spring out of nowhere every year.
    Injuries can bump a rookie up to the top line very quickly.

    But defenseman rarely explode into playing time - unless it is a very-hyped kid (Ghost last year, perhaps Shea Theodore this year) that is going to get some PP minutes.

    Overallyl, in deeper-count pools... its the defenseman that are harder.
    So if both counts are the same... say a 40pt D-man (+22) and a 52pt forward (+22)... I'd probably go with the D.
    Good luck!

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    Sulla's Avatar
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    Default Re: How to gauge when to take a dman over a forward

    there he is
    Experience is the teacher of all things.


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