How to gauge when to take a dman over a forward

[GSD]

I personally like Josi, but yeah it is close, and I'm biased there.

It's all about "replacement value" in this scenario you can find a center like Kopitar in latter rounds. Yo will not be able to find a D man latter that can produce like Josi.

[StuntMan12]

It's all about "replacement value" in this scenario you can find a center like Kopitar in latter rounds. Yo will not be able to find a D man latter that can produce like Josi.

only positions that count are forward, defence, and goalile but i see what you mean. great defence are harder to find than forwards overall. thanks for the reply

[StuntMan12]

in my $250 1 year league, how valuable are defence compared to forwards?

~15 teams, 13 forwards (195 total are taken), 3 defence (45 are taken), 2 goalies (30 are taken)


Does that lower the value of Defence? Or how should I approach going with D-men in this league .... last year I got Shattenkirk in the 8th round. An example of other players taken in the 8th round were.

8th Round Summary (16 managers last season):

Jeff Skinner
James Van Riemsdyk
Kevin Shattenkirk - ME
Ondrej Palat
Adam Henrique
Bryan Little
Matt Niskanen (I see krug was taken in the 10th round)
Rasmus Ristolainen
Mika Zibanejad
Keith Yandle
Brandon Saad
Troy Brouwer
Tomas Hertl
Thomas Plekanec
Vincent Trocheck
Alex Steen

Am wondering if I should go with this as a strategy where I basically buy high on forwards since it's a forward heavy league and buy low on defence because it appears there are a lot of 45-50 pt d men available in the 8th round or so.

1. FORWARD
2. GOALIE
3. FORWARD
4. FORWARD
5. FORWARD
6. FORWARD
7. FORWARD
8. FORWARD
9. DEFENCE
10. DEFENCE
11. FORWARD
12. FORWARD
13. FORWARD
14. FORWARD
15. GOALIE
16. DEFENCE
17. FORWARD
18. FORWARD

[StuntMan12]

in my $250 1 year league, how valuable are defence compared to forwards?

~15 teams, 13 forwards (195 total are taken), 3 defence (45 are taken), 2 goalies (30 are taken)


Does that lower the value of Defence? Or how should I approach going with D-men in this league .... last year I got Shattenkirk in the 8th round. An example of other players taken in the 8th round were.

8th Round Summary (16 managers last season):

Jeff Skinner
James Van Riemsdyk
Kevin Shattenkirk - ME
Ondrej Palat
Adam Henrique
Bryan Little
Matt Niskanen (I see krug was taken in the 10th round)
Rasmus Ristolainen
Mika Zibanejad
Keith Yandle
Brandon Saad
Troy Brouwer
Tomas Hertl
Thomas Plekanec
Vincent Trocheck
Alex Steen

Am wondering if I should go with this as a strategy where I basically buy high on forwards since it's a forward heavy league and buy low on defence because it appears there are a lot of 45-50 pt d men available in the 8th round or so.

1. FORWARD
2. GOALIE
3. FORWARD
4. FORWARD
5. FORWARD
6. FORWARD
7. FORWARD
8. FORWARD
9. DEFENCE
10. DEFENCE
11. FORWARD
12. FORWARD
13. FORWARD
14. FORWARD
15. GOALIE
16. DEFENCE
17. FORWARD
18. FORWARD

I'll add to this to show what round each player was taken.

Carey Price

Braden holtby

Ben Bishop

Patrick Kane

Sidney Crosby - ME

Corey Crawford

Martin Jones

Jonathan Quick

Johnny Gaudreau

Pekka Rinne

Jamie Benn

Tyler Seguin

John Tavares

Connor McDavid

Erik Karlsson

Alex Ovechkin

***END OF ROUND 1***

Evgeny Kuznetsov

Henrik Lundqvist

Tuuka Rask

Vladimir Tarasenko

Blake Wheeler

Joe Pavelski

Nicklas Backstrom

Artemi Panarin

Nikita Kucherov

Brent Burns

Evgeni Malkin

Jake Allen - ME

Craig Anderson

Patrice Bergeron

P.K. Subban

Anze Kopitar

***END OF ROUND 2***

Kris Letang

Mark Scheifele

Steven Stamkos

Sean Monahan

Claude Giroux - ME

Roman Josi

Joe Thornton

Jonathan Toews

Aleksander Barkov

Jordan Eberle

Ryan Getzlaf

Brendan Gallagher

John Gibson

Taylor Hall

Filip Forsberg

Nathan MacKinnon

***END OF ROUND 3***

Matt Duchene

John Carlson

John Klingberg

Oliver Ekman-Larsson

Shea Weber

Corey Perry

Tyson Barrie

Victor Hedman

Drew Doughty

Ryan Johansen

Ryan O'Reilly

Jack Eichel - ME

Jonathan Huberdeau

Dustin Byfuglien

Mark Giordano

Phil Kessel

***END OF ROUND 4***

James Neal

Brad Marchand

David Krejci

Derrick Brassard

Shayne Gostisbehere - ME

Jakub Voracek

Jason Spezza

Tyler Johnson

Jussi Jokinen

Logan Couture

Devan Dubnyk

Daniel Sedin

Mike Hoffman

Kyle Okposo

Gabriel Landeskog

Milan Lucic

***END OF ROUND 5***

Duncan Keith

T.J. Oshie

Patrick Sharp

Kyle Turris

Thomas Greiss

T.J. Brodie

Tyler Toffoli

Bobby Ryan

Wayne Simmonds

Derek Stepan

Mark Stone

Max Pacioretty - ME

Dougie Hamilton

Loui Eriksson

Brayden Schenn

Jeff Carter

***END OF ROUND 6***

Leon Draisaitl

Zach Parise

Jaden Schwartz

Kyle Palmieri

Henrik Sedin - ME

Jaromir Jagr

Frans Nielsen

Mikkel Boedker

Brian Elliot

Alex Galchenyuk

Auston Matthews

Ryan Kesler

Jonathan Drouin

Max Domi

Mats Zuccarello

Ryan Suter

***END OF ROUND 7***

Ondrej Palat

Mika Zibanejad

Bryan Little

James Van Riemsdyk

Thomas Plekanec

Jeff Skinner

Rasmus Ristolainen

Keith Yandle

Tomas Hertl

Alex Steen

Vincent Trocheck

Kevin Shattenkirk - ME

Troy Brouwer

Brandon Saad

Adam Henrique

Matt Niskanen

Defence taken by round (if my math is correct)
RD1 - 1
RD2 - 2
RD3 - 2
RD4 - 9
RD5 - 1
RD6 - 3
RD7 - 1
RD8 - 3

[Mr. Guru]

Relative difference of F vs. D is a simple "count" exercise in points leagues.

1. How many teams?
2. How many counting players at each position?

You consider this your "waiver wire" value at the last counting player.

Say you have 25 GMs and 8F... that's 200F in play. The #200 scoring F in the NHL typically scores 30pts.
Say you have 25 GMs and 4D... that's 100D in play. The #100 scoring D in the NHL typically scores 18pts.
Those are your benchmarks.

So when you are choosing between F & D... you just do simple subtraction to what is on the table vs. those marks.
One thing you also have to think about is how likely it is to find a "riser".

In general, 30pt forwards spring out of nowhere every year.
Injuries can bump a rookie up to the top line very quickly.

But defenseman rarely explode into playing time - unless it is a very-hyped kid (Ghost last year, perhaps Shea Theodore this year) that is going to get some PP minutes.

Overallyl, in deeper-count pools... its the defenseman that are harder.
So if both counts are the same... say a 40pt D-man (+22) and a 52pt forward (+22)... I'd probably go with the D.
Good luck!

I love these annual posts.

[Mr. Guru]

Let's say you have the 5th overall pick in this draft for example. Who would be the right guy to pick?

top 8 forwards, top 2 defence, top 1 goalie count for points

1. Crosby
2. Kane
3. Benn
4. Seguin
5.

Best players availabe: Erik Karlsson, Connor McDavid, Braden Holtby, Carey Price, John Tavares, Johnny Gaudreau ect ect .... who would you go with?

Wouldn't the right choice be between Erik Karlsson or Braden Holtby since after that there is a small cliff of talent or point projections?

No one answered this. How many teams plays a huge factor here too.

[Mr. Guru]

in my $250 1 year league, how valuable are defence compared to forwards?

~15 teams, 13 forwards (195 total are taken), 3 defence (45 are taken), 2 goalies (30 are taken)

...

Am wondering if I should go with this as a strategy where I basically buy high on forwards since it's a forward heavy league and buy low on defence because it appears there are a lot of 45-50 pt d men available in the 8th round or so.

Heavy forwards. Id try to get one goalie before round 4 and the other goalie before round 8. Depending where you pick plays a huge role too. You pretty much base your strategy out of that. But yeah straight points league is exactly how P7 describes it. And since you do your own projections you should be able to figure out which position yields you the better return at any given pick.