Byfuglien's long-term value?

[DrSteveBrule]

Just wondering how many years left do we have with Big Buff producing Big Numbers?

I have him in a keeper league with every stat category and this is the last year I can keep him as a winger based on the Yahoo positional changes.

I own him Brent Burns, Kevin Shattenkirk & Mark Giordano. I'm in a position where I can keep 2 or 3 of these players.

I'm currently leaning Burns, Buff for sure and Shattenkirk as my 3rd (due to personal favoritism over Giordano - I think I'll be able to draft Giordano back).

It's a ten team league, 11 keepers each (110 players kept). I'm considering offers for Buff as well (second round picks mostly).

[PenguinHunter]

As a Manitobian and as a avid listener to jets talk... there was a bunch of talk about how he has slowed his game down and that they think he can adapt to a new style of game when his body slows down as he gets older.

They still think he can put up points and be more of a regular powerplay defenseman when he is too old to be the 4th forward on a powerplay.

By this they mean that even when he is not quick enough to jump up into the rush, he will still be able to make the first pass out of the zone and then the team can get into the zone and set up and he will still have the huge cannon from the point.

Disclaimer: As a Manitoban, I am not a Jets fan... so this is not a biased opinion.

[DrSteveBrule]

PenHunter, thanks for the info. He's been great for me these past 3 years especially in multi-cat.
I'm just wondering if I should look to sell him now for picks and make room to keep another younger player.

Being from Manitoba, what have you heard and what are your thoughts on Ehlers who I'm currently not able to slip into my list of keepers. But could keep him if I trade Buff. I also have a deal in place where I give up very little in terms of picks for Galchenyuk.

I also have an offer of Monahan for Byfuglien. Which I think is a good get.

[PenguinHunter]

PenHunter, thanks for the info. He's been great for me these past 3 years especially in multi-cat.
I'm just wondering if I should look to sell him now for picks and make room to keep another younger player.

Being from Manitoba, what have you heard and what are your thoughts on Ehlers who I'm currently not able to slip into my list of keepers. But could keep him if I trade Buff. I also have a deal in place where I give up very little in terms of picks for Galchenyuk.

I also have an offer of Monahan for Byfuglien. Which I think is a good get.

There are big expectations for Ehlers in Winnipeg... they think he will play well with Laine whenever he is ready, which could be this year. Lots of my friends are buying Ehlers jerseys because they think he is great.

[Ianclark5525]

I hope he has a few more years left in him. I just acquired him in a multi cat league

[Pengwin7]

Defensemen can maintain their game for a long-time.
There isn't a ton of demand on covering ice like there is for forwards.

That said, he will decline at some point... the bigger guys, especially do.
Zdeno Chara was a perennial 45pt guy, with 200+ sog and dynamite peripherals.
He's been in decline for the last 4 years, from about 35 to now... at age 39.

I think "35 years old" is sort of a mark for defensemen.
Expect the game to go from 100% at age 35 to about 50% at age 40.
Then they're done.
So... a kind of guide:

Age 35: Last 100% year of stats.
Age 36: 90% of old self
Age 37: 80& of old self
Age 38: 70% of old self
Age 39: 60% of old self
Age 40: 50% of old self.
Buff turns 32 this March... so he's still got potentially 3-4 years of top level hockey.

NB: Does not apply to Czechs that play wing named Jaromir.

[glorybe23]

Defensemen can maintain their game for a long-time.
There isn't a ton of demand on covering ice like there is for forwards.

That said, he will decline at some point... the bigger guys, especially do.
Zdeno Chara was a perennial 45pt guy, with 200+ sog and dynamite peripherals.
He's been in decline for the last 4 years, from about 35 to now... at age 39.

I think "35 years old" is sort of a mark for defensemen.
Expect the game to go from 100% at age 35 to about 50% at age 40.
Then they're done.
So... a kind of guide:

Age 35: Last 100% year of stats.
Age 36: 90% of old self
Age 37: 80& of old self
Age 38: 70% of old self
Age 39: 60% of old self
Age 40: 50% of old self.
Buff turns 32 this March... so he's still got potentially 3-4 years of top level hockey.

NB: Does not apply to Czechs that play wing named Jaromir.

I like the Chara comparison, since they are big bodied guys... however did you incorporate in Chara's insane workout and fitness level and Big Buff's donut eating overweightness algorithm, could play a factor in a quicker decline.

[Pengwin7]

Bwa-ha-ha... um, nope.

[yougo]

Defensemen can maintain their game for a long-time.
There isn't a ton of demand on covering ice like there is for forwards.

That said, he will decline at some point... the bigger guys, especially do.
Zdeno Chara was a perennial 45pt guy, with 200+ sog and dynamite peripherals.
He's been in decline for the last 4 years, from about 35 to now... at age 39.

I think "35 years old" is sort of a mark for defensemen.
Expect the game to go from 100% at age 35 to about 50% at age 40.
Then they're done.
So... a kind of guide:

Age 35: Last 100% year of stats.
Age 36: 90% of old self
Age 37: 80& of old self
Age 38: 70% of old self
Age 39: 60% of old self
Age 40: 50% of old self.
Buff turns 32 this March... so he's still got potentially 3-4 years of top level hockey.

NB: Does not apply to Czechs that play wing named Jaromir.

Chara is a good comparison but they play a much different game. Byfuglien is much more mobile than Chara was. Buff's game is build around his skating ability (and his frame) while Chara's game was about his positioning (and his frame). I think Buff might see a drop in his game faster than Chara simply because I doubt he can keep his skating ability late in his 30's.

I hope I'm wrong. I own Buff in several keeper leagues.

[hipcheck]

I own Byfuglien and expect 2-4 more years of his current production.

I can not say if the trades you have offered are good or not without knowing the league information. How many D do you roster? How many skaters, etc.

However, Both players you mentioned are Centers IIRC which would not interest me. To many C's to few D's

[stevegamer]

Not being able to keep Byfuglien as a winger should matter little, since you can keep him as a defenseman, and that pool is probably scarcer for talent, depending on your categories. I think he's good for another few years of big numbers.

[Sulla]

Byuf is a weird one for me as realistically if you want to jump off him now is probably the last time you will be able to in keeper leagues - guys just don't want to pay for guys who are 33 onwards. If you keep him then I think you need to be willing to see him retire on your team... I'd have no problem keeping him TBH

[Kabonov]

I'd Keep Burns and Buff as well fromt hat group.
I see Buff no issues for the next 3 years, then probably unload him.