Radulov - be counted

[fantasyhockeygeek]

Bump!

At the quarter pole, I'm feeling pretty damn good about this... his first few games were duds, but he's looked great.

[rataylor22]

Bump!

At the quarter pole, I'm feeling pretty damn good about this... his first few games were duds, but he's looked great.

He's 34th in points, and 21st in PPG. So relating back to my first post, the problem isn't the prediction so much as the ranking. He's on pace for 73 points, but that is likely to slow down. So again, is 65 points top 20 in PPG? That's really the question, I still don't think it will be. He has been great though.

[BreadManPanarin]

Here are some excerpts from my comments back on July 1 in the "Radulov Value" thread:
Re: Radulov Value

For whatever it is worth, in 2014-15 Radulov scored 71 points in 46 games in the KHL (1.54ppg). That same year Artemi Panarin scored 62 points in 54 games in the KHL (1.15 ppg).

When Panarin came over to the NHL the next year he scored 77 pts in 80 games (.96 ppg). Obviously projecting Radulov by Panarin would be downright silly. Especially since Radulov won't play with Kane. But those are the numbers... again, for whatever they are worth.

Also "for whatever it is worth", according to this "study" (http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh...d.php?t=716181), the conversion for KHL points to NHL points is supposedly around .58. Meaning that Radulov's 1.54ppg in KHL would convert to .89 ppg in the NHL, or 73 points in 82 games

I realize that many people were skeptical of Radulov because they have been burned by him in the past. I just started playing fantasy hockey a year ago so my analysis of Radulov was almost purely numbers based and without much weight given to his previous behavior. Plus, I had just drafted Panarin and seen how well he did coming over from the KHL, so that made me optimistic.

I voted Yes back in August when you originally posted the poll, and right now I am going to say that I think the 73 points number from the .58 KHL to NHL conversion rate that I previously mentioned is exactly where I see him ending up. 73 points would be good for 14th in scoring last year. So, my answer remains unchanged... Yes to Top 20!

- - - Updated - - -

He's on pace for 73 points, but that is likely to slow down.

Interesting coincidence! On pace for 73. I'm in the camp that is betting it doesn't slow down, or speed up!

What IS speeding up however is his shooting rate. He averaged 1.55 SOG per game in October, 2.08 SOG per game in November, and he has 3 SOG in each game so far in December. So maybe he will regress a bit on assist rate, but hopefully it will be offset by an increase in goal scoring rate. Fingers crossed.

[Edmonton Crunch]

If we're talking this year top 20 is reasonable. I think he will end up right around there barring injuries. If I had to choose I'd say he'll finish just outside top 20.

If we're talking keeper (so next 3-5 years) I don't think so. The next year or two would be his best.

[LakeSoup]

Cut-off for last 3 years (the 20th skater): 67, 69, 69.

So realistically Radulov would need ~48 pts in the remaining 59 games for a 0.8 pace. I think it's possible, but it'll be hard, esp if Galchenyuk is out for long

[BreadManPanarin]

What IS speeding up however is his shooting rate. He averaged 1.55 SOG per game in October, 2.08 SOG per game in November, and he has 3 SOG in each game so far in December. So maybe he will regress a bit on assist rate, but hopefully it will be offset by an increase in goal scoring rate. Fingers crossed.

Dug into this a little further. So far this year 23.8% of Radulov's 21 points have been goals. Over his NHL career 52 of his 123 points have been goals (42.3%), and over his KHL career 169 of his 492 points have been goals (34.3%).

So, it seems fairly likely that his goal ratio will increase to somewhere between 35 and 40 % as time goes on. In theory this could mean one of three things:
1. Thus far his per game assist rate is over-inflated and his per game goal rate is about right. Over time his per game assist rate will decrease to a normal level and his per game goal rate will stay about the same. This will lead to him having an overall LOWER points per game rate.
2. Thus far his per game assist rate is about right and his per game goal rate is under-inflated. Over time his per game assist rate will stay about the same but his per game goal rate will increase to a normal level. This will lead to him having an overall HIGHER points per game rate.
3. Thus far his per game assist rate is over-inflated and his per game goal rate is under-inflated. Over time his per game assist rate will decrease to a normal level and his per game goal rate will increase to a normal level. This will not have a significant affect on his overall points per game rate.

What do you think about this, Fantasy Hockey Geek (and others)? Which of those 3 scenarios do you think is most likely? Or do you think my analysis here is just completely flawed?

[Jouko-Pouko]

Dug into this a little further. So far this year 23.8% of Radulov's 21 points have been goals. Over his NHL career 52 of his 123 points have been goals (42.3%), and over his KHL career 169 of his 492 points have been goals (34.3%).

So, it seems fairly likely that his goal ratio will increase to somewhere between 35 and 40 % as time goes on. In theory this could mean one of three things:
1. Thus far his per game assist rate is over-inflated and his per game goal rate is about right. Over time his per game assist rate will decrease to a normal level and his per game goal rate will stay about the same. This will lead to him having an overall LOWER points per game rate.
2. Thus far his per game assist rate is about right and his per game goal rate is under-inflated. Over time his per game assist rate will stay about the same but his per game goal rate will increase to a normal level. This will lead to him having an overall HIGHER points per game rate.
3. Thus far his per game assist rate is over-inflated and his per game goal rate is under-inflated. Over time his per game assist rate will decrease to a normal level and his per game goal rate will increase to a normal level. This will not have a significant affect on his overall points per game rate.

What do you think about this, Fantasy Hockey Geek (and others)? Which of those 3 scenarios do you think is most likely? Or do you think my analysis here is just completely flawed?

Radulov's linemates weren't great in the KHL, so in many cases he had to score himself to get a point. He carried that KHL team by himself many times and his linemates got inflated point totals because of him. For example, in his final KHL year, Radulov had 65 points while the 2nd best had 36 points. In Montreal, things should be better. Especially once Pacioretty gets going. That probably means his goal ratio will stay lower than what it was in the KHL.

[everfeb]

Just 25 guys have more total points than Radulov so far.
PPG wise of guys who played 20+ games just 20 are higher. Add in Cammy and Hall and 22 are higher.

[VincentVega]

Radulov has the stills and drive (what I've seen from him this year) to be a PPG player. He is that good.

[BreadManPanarin]

Radulov's linemates weren't great in the KHL, so in many cases he had to score himself to get a point. He carried that KHL team by himself many times and his linemates got inflated point totals because of him. For example, in his final KHL year, Radulov had 65 points while the 2nd best had 36 points. In Montreal, things should be better. Especially once Pacioretty gets going. That probably means his goal ratio will stay lower than what it was in the KHL.

Interesting. His career NHL rate (42% of points being goals) is much higher than his KHL rate despite this year's stats dragging it down so far. Is that because his predators teammates were lousy too and he had to carry those teams by scoring more goals? Or was he just more of a selfish puck hog back in his youth?

[Jouko-Pouko]

Radulov has the stills and drive (what I've seen from him this year) to be a PPG player. He is that good.

Not sure how stills are helping him...

Interesting. His career NHL rate (42% of points being goals) is much higher than his KHL rate despite this year's stats dragging it down so far. Is that because his predators teammates were lousy too and he had to carry those teams by scoring more goals? Or was he just more of a selfish puck hog back in his youth?

There are many reasons.
1) Young players usually have higher goal ratios
2) Radulov was playing with some really good playmakers like Paul Kariya and JP Dumont
3) Radulov was a selfish player as a young man
4) Small sample size: only 178 NHL games in his career which is only a little over 2 seasons

[fantasyhockeygeek]

I think his production is sustainable. Radulov has a very high ratio of first assists to points (12 first A in 21 P)... #4 in the league there. I would suspect that'll even out over the rest of the season as he'll get more 2nd touches.

[lucafen4]

I traded up in my draft to get him at #3. If he drove the offence in the KHL without a real #1C losing Chucky is likely only going to drive the offense through Radulov moreso.

I wouldn't be surprised to see his pt/gm slightly increase without Chucky. his SOG/GM I'd expect to continue to increase with the added responsibility.

He's always loved the spotlight, he's learned which spotlight should be on him.

[fantasyhockeygeek]

Mmm, delicious crow.

[rataylor22]

63rd. Nosedive.