2016/17 Rocky Horror Roto Show

[Pengwin7]

Big congrats to Shoeless!!!
In the sixth season of the league, it was easily the closest it has ever been down the stretch.
The GMs have gotten smarter about hunting down leaders and most everybody that was in 1st in calendar 2017 got pecked down after a while.
Shoeless was able to hold on in the narrowest of battles.

I always do a post mortem on my team, as I find these really help me identify what I did right and what I did wrong.
Here we go:
Final Standing: 8th/12
SELF-GRADE: C+
Things that went right: Winning FOW by targeting, finishing high in SOG by targeting. Peripherals.
Things that went poorly: Going for D-scoring hurt my BLK. I stills stink at goalie eval.
Unlucky things that can't be planned for: League low SH%, Price shitting the bed in Dec-Feb.

50% of the league performance, I think, is how you do in the draft.
Its easily the most critical of GM functions, so good to review.

Nightmarians - by Pengwin7.

Price was on the board and I was 90% confident that temek would want to go with at least 1G (he did last year). So I took Price(11) who I believe to be the only other Tier Ia goalie. Unf, Buff got nabbed at 12/13 along with Cory Schneider - which suggested I did well in stealing Price. It was between Giroux/Bergeron - and even though I actually value Bergeron more highly... I thought he'd be more likely to possibly slide

Turned out this was sage strategy.
*Temek simply runs away with the pool if I leave Price on the board*. I'll be expecting my gift basket from Shoeless because the difference between Price & Schneider was probably about 10-12 cat points. I also traded Price away tactfully to Russ/NBQ who did catch ALL of the leaders in GAA/SV% - so it was a helpful move for all competition. Buff was solid, wish I had been able to take him (instead of Price). Giroux was a PP monster but a +/- drain and slumped hard in 2017. I was absolutely correct in my valuation of Bergeron who was a top 10 fantasy skater in calendar 2017 after a slow/injured start to the 2016-2017 season. Bergeron led in FOW and finished top five in SOG. The career low 7% in shooting was well off his 10%... and that's how the whole year went for my team. [*By stats, my team shot 8.8%. The league average is 9.8% and the winner, shoeless, shot a ridiculously fortunate 11.7%... two full percentage points above average!!!]

Round 3(35)/4(38). to my shock, Bergeron actually made it all the way here... with Steven Stamkos(38) on the board, how could I pass.

Bergeron was incredibly solid after a slow 2016 start. Stamkos' I flipped twice, both very sensible trades. First I flipped Stamkos for NickBack - who ended up being the 4th best fantasy skater! (Good move) But in November I realized I was going to have a massive surplus in FOW and flipped Backstrom for Pat Kane - a top 15 skater with more G/SOG. I actually give myself a thumbs up on both trades. The downside was taking on Justin Faulk for his PPP. Faulk stunk.

Round 5(59)/6(62). Jon Toews (59) has become an unsexy pick in fantasy, but he's almost always a top 50 player, a PLUS guy, and a FOW beast. I couldn't pass. I've grown really big on Dylan Larkin (62)

As solid a pick as Toews was (top 40 skater), Larkin was awful. Terrible. He really struggled in his shift to C in the first month... and sputtered with confidence from there. Hype is an evil thing. I really hadn't watched Larkin enough and should have heeded my own anti-advice on uber-fast-skating shooter-types. This was just a costly wasteful pick and I dumped Larkin two months in.

Round 7(83)/8(86). Without any D roster, I had to jump at them here. I had Muzzin/Risto queued up. I took Jake Muzzin(83) but then felt it was still two rounds early for Risto and that he might slide. After temek's picks of Toffoli/Ladd (he went heavy W power), I saw that Marchand(86) was the last really solid wing on the board, so I took him.

Muzzin was brutal this year. Whereas, mercy, if I had Risto - could've been a 5-10pt swing on him alone. Marchand, though, was a true gem - finishing as #5 overall player!! One of the beauty picks of the pool. Very proud of that one.

Round 9(107)/10(110). I was bound & determined to get my 2D here. I had three queued up... and the one I REALLY wanted, Risto, was nearing me. Gone at pick #106, one spot before me. Fugg. I think he'll have a good year. I cursed & mentioned how I wanted the guy I affectionately refer to as "Ivan Drago"... and then settled on Seabrook(107) & Suter(111).

Seabrook's peripheral stats have really slacked over past 2-3 years - they weren't there. Suter was solid, but no peripherals as well. This had me chasing HITS hard mid-season and doing something I've never done... PUNTING a category: BLK. I was actually pretty proud of that move as I give up on BLK in January, realizing I'd slip from 4th worst to 3rd worst... at worst. I ended up right at 4th worst, not dropping at all, even after shipping several of my BLK guys (Seabrook, Forbort) out.

Round 11(131)/12(134). While in the mood to load up on D, I decided to keep at it. Two faves of mine: Matt Niskanen(131) and Erik Johnson(134).

I packaged EJ in with Stamkos to land NickBack/Faulk pre-start. Both Stamkos/EJ went down early season... but Faulk stunk. Niskanen was OK, but not worthy of passing on the forwards available at this range.

Round 13(155)/14(158). I felt like another reach here. Much like Larkin, another up&coming young kid that shoots, hits, and should get FOW from the W this season... Elias Lindholm(155). I couldn't wait another round, I expect big things... bigger than Yahoo! projections, so I grabbed him. I went with Mike Smith(158).

Elias Lindholm was terrible thru 3months of the year... and wonderful (after I dropped him) for final 3 months. I just missed the investment here.
He'll be very solid next year - something I'll have to remember since his "full year stats" will skew how good he was in 2017.
Mike Smith, meh, bad. But, he does face a ton of shots (a cat I don't particularly like) - and this helped me finish 2nd in SV.

Round 15(181)/16(184): With my next pick I went with Nikolaj Ehlers(181). Big year 'comin, yes? I thought it was a steal of a pick here. I actually decided to take a guy that I thought was hanging around too long because of mis-position: Tomas Hertl (C). Hertl's not a C, he's playing LW1... and when he gets that LW, I'll start him in my line-up.'

Two pats on back for this one. Ehlers was awesome first 3months of season - but did hit a wall in 2017.
Hertl did get LW, like I suspected, and that made him a good play for FOW from the LW... and I won that category by about 20 FOW.

Round 17/18. Dallas DUO: Lehtonen & Niemi - they just can't possibly be as bad as they were last year.

Yeesh. Dallas - and its young D - were awful defensively and Lehtonen/Niemi were terrible as well.
This cannibalized any GAA/SV% from Price. By Feb, I was dead last in both - though I did have a surplus of goalie starts (which is a tactic that has value).
I ended up flipping the DAL duo for Jack Eichel, coming off injury. Probably my best trade of the year. Nothing beats a surplus of goalie starts when offered to a team chasing!!!
But there was still no rallying in goalie peripherals. Drafting these two knuckleheads basically took me out of contention for the whole season.
Additionally - between Price(MON), M.Smith(ARI), and DAL-duo, I had... too many goalie starts.
So I passed on any emerging goalie - which has been my "MO" in the past, to value add spot goalie replacements.
In DobberPRO, I added Petr Budaj the day that Jon Quick went down (even while others were adding Zatkoff). I would've done it here if I needed goalie starts.
In any other season when I value-ride back-ups... Budaj would've been mine, and this was the year - as Shoeless knows - where a patchwork of back-up goalies was enough to get the job done.


The rest of my draft was uneventful.
Marian Hossa and Jokinen and the remainder of guys I drafted in rounds 19-25 panned out to nothing.
My in-season strategy and stat micro-managing were solid.

It was really a much better season for me, by self-eval, then the final standings show.
I will self-proclaim myself as a huge "team-player" in the league for drafting Price and doing my part in jumping a leader in a cat when I could.
It would've been much easier for me to run my standard self-serving strategy: Draft F heavy for 10 rounds. Leave G/D until end/waivers.
That strategy didn't work in previous years as I've finished 2-3-2-3... always behind temek.
So I (/we) should have been trying something different.
I believe I could've finished 2nd (behind a Price-full temek) this year if I had stayed my route.
2nd... is still "not winning"... and what's the point if you don't give yourself (and others) a shot to win.

End-Self-Eval

ps. Thanks to BN for another great year of running the best one-year league out there.
pps. Best group of GMs in any one-year league out there.

[temek]

*Temek simply runs away with the pool if I leave Price on the board*. I'll be expecting my gift basket from Shoeless because the difference between Price & Schneider was probably about 10-12 cat points.

I actually did an estimate on how much it would have made a difference by dropping all of games from Schneider and Pickard and about half of Mrazek's games and estimate was +14 pts which would have placed my team at a relatively comfortable 1st place at 119 pts. I came very close to picking Dubnyk as well instead of Schneider as Dubnyk was actually rated above Schneider rankings, but decided to gamble and hope he'd be available when my 3rd/4th round picks came along.

[temek]

Projections were pretty poor this season and goalie projections were especially all over the place. Overall predictions were still a decent step ahead of just saying everyone has an equal chance so I'd say there's still some value.
RHRS 2016-2017 Standings predictions.zip

[horrorfan]

As I will likely be missing the draft next season and given my performance, I may need to start my prep soon.

[4T2]

Always love reading the post-mortem Pengwin! Great recap.

I'm disappointed with my finish after hanging around the top 3 almost all year. Was hoping for my first podium finish. Wasn't meant to be. I hope to post a full post mortem but I'll be booking a last minute Cuba trip today so I don't know if I'll have time.!
Great year to everyone! Just an absolutely amazingly close season with everyone extremely active right to the end. Can't ask for a better group!

[horrorfan]

Cannibal Staalocaust

It was an interesting draft, with quite a few adjustments to the strategy going in. I had a plan in place, but I knew with these guys that could totally change at a moment's notice. Here's my draft summary:

1.6. Erik Karlsson: I had a plan going in with a few options. I knew Ovechkin, Crosby and Benn would be the top 3 or at least gone by the time I chose sixth. There was Karlsson and Burns, and Holtby and Price if I wanted to go backend first. Finally, I had decided that with the limited number of wingers with positional eligibility, Pavelski would've been a perfect pick here given his all around contributions. Unfortunately, he was taken fifth so had to change my initial strategy and go with my top D in Karlsson. Sure, Burns had a monster year last season, but I didn't want to assume that his sudden SOG and offensive increase was a guarantee this year. Karlsson feels like a safer offensive bet, and that was my priority, since I wasn't getting a forward.

2.19. Ben Bishop: I figured there would be plenty of goalie options , and I was going to take the top one remaining. I figured Quick or Bishop, so happy to get one of them.

3.30. Devan Dubnyk: When planning my strategy, I went back and forth deciding whether to take my second goalie right away or wait a bit later. There were forward options given I didn't have one yet, and since I had a D I wasn't going to grab a second this early. So, figured get that second reliable starter to solidify my starters. Dubynk was on my list and thankfully he was still there.

4.43. Filip Forsberg: I needed a forward, and ideally an all-round contributor in several categories. Forsberg was one of the few targeted remaining, so happy to have him anchor my LW.

5.54. Sean Monahan: Even though centres are plentiful, ones that are on the rise with good SOG and high FOW are not as abundant. Monahan's a guy who I hope will take that next step this season to be one of the more productive centres in the league.

6.67. Nikita Kucherov: He kept falling and falling due to his contract status. I just couldn't pass on him any longer, and hopefully he'll sign soon and fulfill his potential of being an elite winger in this league. Not huge peripherals but with points as a category I couldn't pass on someone like him with his upside.

7.78. Patrik Hornqvist: Decided to continue on the wingers and wanted to start looking at hits a bit more after my last couple picks. I could've gone with Toffoli here, and perhaps that may turn out to be a better choice, but with Hornqvist's high SOG and Hit totals, I was happy to get him before he got snapped up.

8.91. Ryan Kesler: Although tempted to go for a more offensive #2 centre, I wanted to boost the hits and help out PIM a bit more. Furthermore, as my plan was having centres with strong FOW totals, Kesler seemed ideal.

9.102. Boone Jenner: Seems to be a bit of theme around this part of the draft - back to higher shooters with some grit. Not sure if he'll get some centre time this year, thus boosting his FOW totals. That would be a bonus, but not a focus.

10.115. Jordan Staal: I've been thinking when should I get my #2 defensemen. Looking at what was available I figured I could wait another round. Originally, I thought about picking Staal a bit later but given the vultures in this league and his value in this format, strong FOW from the wing and decent offensive opportunities, I had to get him now.

11.126. Ryan McDonagh: Ok, needed a defenseman. McDonagh is expected to be the top D on the Rangers so hopefully he can get back to 40+ with decent peripherals, most importantly blocked shots, a priority when getting defensemen in this format.

12.139. Derick Brassard: Time for my #3 centre with good offensive opportunities on Ottawa, good amount of grit, and solid FOW. Good value IMO at this point.

13.150. Seth Jones: Leading the Blue Jackets D this season I have high hopes of a strong season. Not a big hitter but at least should be decent in blocks.

14.163. Justin Abdelkader: Back to the multiple category contributors, and it's been a few rounds since getting a RW so it was worth picking him up here, with his LW eligibility, modest offensive numbers, strong hits and PIM totals. Excellent value here, and hopefully he'll improve his +/- this season.

15.174. Johnny Boychuk: Not sure if he'll get much PP time this season but if given the opportunity then it will be a huge boost to his solid peripheral contributions. For a #4 D, that works for me.

16.187. Michal Neuvirth: With Greiss going a bit earlier I knew I needed my first backup goalie with potential to become the starter. I knew I wanted one more, and Chad Johnson is on my radar. Need to decide when to grab him...

17.198. Tomas Plekanec: Not yet, and although there were still a few decent depth centres on the board, perhaps Plekanec has enough left in the tank to put together a solid season, with good SOG and usually high FOW totals. Solid for my #4.

18.211. Chad Johnson: Ok, can't wait any longer for Johnson. In my pre-draft strategy I had figured around pick 200 so I'm happy to get him here. Will see how Elliott's health is this season but at worst hoping for decent spot starts.

19.222. Tomas Tatar: Have to admit I was surprised that Tatar fell this far. Sure, he wasn't great last season but he's only one season away from 29 goals, 56 points, 90 hits, 19 PPP and 211 SOG. If he can get close to that this season he'll be a steal at pick 222.

20.235. Shane Doan: Part of me was thinking should I grab more players with upside but even at this late stage of his career, Doan has been very solid on a per game basis. I'm not expecting last year's goal totals, but you can generally rely on him to hit a few categories on a regular basis.

21.246. Connor Murphy: I realised that I still only had 4 D so it was worth grabbing someone that will fill the hits and blocks, but might have a bit of offensive potential. With Stone still recovering (even though he's close), perhaps this will give Murphy a shot at some good minutes. I admit I didn't know anything about him recently but read that he had played on the top line with OEL late last season, and he did get some PP time as well. Of course, Stone's health will likely decide his value but figured it was a low risk option at this stage.

22.259. PA Parenteau: Potentially playing with Tavares and available at pick 259? Yes please. With my last two RW being more grit options, he might fill the offensive gap when needed.

23.270. Artem Anisimov: Another depth option with potential playing time with a star. If he centres Kane, then he'll have decent value as a depth centre.

24.283. Oscar Klefbom: It pains me as a Flames fan to pick an Oiler, but as I needed one more D I figured why not grab the guy who showed decent potential last season, may get some decent PP time, and on a per game basis, was strong in blocks.

25.294. Micheal Ferland: I could've gone with a more offensive player, a young guy with potential, but decided on the guy who provides a ton of hits and maybe, just maybe gets time on the top line with Monahan. Worth a shot this late.

Team summary:

C: Monahan, Kesler, Brassard, Plekanec, Anisimov
L: Forsberg, Jenner (C), J. Staal (C), Tatar, Ferland
R: Kucherov, Hornqvist, Abdelkader (L), Doan, Parenteau
D: Karlsson, McDonagh, Jones, Boychuk, Murphy, Klefbom
G: Bishop, Dubnyk, Neuvirth, Johnson

Brief post mortem:

Karlsson - solid as expected
Bishop - meh, mediocre performance, injury and traded to be a backup.
Dubynk - thankfully I chose him as my second goalie
Forsberg - slow start but at least picked it up in the second half to salvage something
Monahan - as above
Kucherov - my pick of the draft. stud.
Hornqvist - solid to start but faded big time, plus some injury loss
Kesler - stud in the first half, faded a bit but still a solid season.
Jenner - dud. poor pick.
Staal - decent on a per game basis, missed time due to injury which cost him in overall numbers.
McDonagh - decent enough, got what I expected.
Brassard - well that was an unexpected disappointment.
Jones - Werenski stole the show but had a solid season without the PPP production.
Abdelkader - dud. another poor pick.
Boychuk - was alright on my squad peripheral-wise and then traded him for offense.

The rest didn't provide much or stay on my squad for most of the year other than Johnson. And dropping Anisimov before his hot start didn't help either.

Overall, a few solid performances but mostly a mixed bag. Shows in my mid-table standing.

[Atomic Wedgy]

Post mortem: