Results 1 to 9 of 9

Thread: A match-up inspired by your votes!

  1. #1
    Rep Power
    50

    The Magnificent One

    Default A match-up inspired by your votes!

    http://www.dobberhockey.com/hockey-h...vs-seth-jones/

    Yup - this weeks' Cage Match was born from the voting in the Defensemen Breakout Cage Match Tournament that was held a few weeks ago. Here's a link to the voting poll if you didn't see it the first time around, or didn't check back after voting to see the final results: http://forums.dobbersports.com/showt...OUTS-vote-here!

    With Jones and Parayko being the clear top choices, and finishing within 5% of each other in terms of votes cast, it seemed only natural to tee them up for my first post-tournament cage match column!

    Give it a read and let us know if you agree with the findings, especially if you own either player. Do you think we can/should judge Jones on his 41 games with Columbus? Should we pencil in Parayko for top production under the assumption that Kevin Shattenkirk is all but assured to be out of St. Louis by this time next year? Will Jones' apparent edge in raw talent find a way to translate to the score sheet, and can Parayko find another offensive gear? Post all your thoughts here.
    DobberHockey Senior Writer (columnist since 2012)
    Click here to read my weekly "Roos Lets Loose" columns, going live every Wednesday morning and consisting of a rotating schedule of a "forum buzz" column, a fantasy hockey mailbag, a tournament/poll, and an edition of Goldipucks and the Three Skaters: https://dobberhockey.com/category/ho...key-rick-roos/

  2. #2
    Location
    Brampton, Ontario
    Rep Power
    40

    Dobber Sports Titan

    Default Re: A match-up inspired by your votes!

    Interesting matchup. The points are definitely a tough thing to gauge with Jones. Personally I'm giving him a bit of a pass on the first half a season with Columbus. I think he can up in to very similar levels to Parayko.
    That being said, with Shatty likely out the door soon, and Tank & crew leading the way offensively, I do like Parayko's ceiling a little better. I think Jones is also in Jeopardy of becoming more of a Pietrangelo/Suter type where the offence is slightly limited due to the amount of heavy lifting they have to do around the rest of the rink.
    Associate Editor for DobberHockey (Wednesdays). Click that Ramblings button on the the menu bar!
    (No I don't have a hockey problem...)

  3. #3
    Feenom's Avatar
    Feenom is offline
    Join Date
    Jul 2016
    Posts
    4,474
    Location
    On a beach
    Rep Power
    50

    Dobber Sports Genius

    Default Re: A match-up inspired by your votes!

    This season will be a better gauge as to how Jones will improve his numbers. He is more talented and should (season to season) have better numbers than Parayko. But if Shattenkirk does leave that is a huge plus for his numbers. Still, in the long run I like Jones' talent and potential over Parayko. There's a reason Columbus gave up a #1 Center to acquire this guy.

  4. #4
    Location
    Canada
    Rep Power
    50

    Dobber Sports Juggernaut

    Default Re: A match-up inspired by your votes!

    Quote Originally Posted by Feenom View Post
    This season will be a better gauge as to how Jones will improve his numbers. He is more talented and should (season to season) have better numbers than Parayko. But if Shattenkirk does leave that is a huge plus for his numbers. Still, in the long run I like Jones' talent and potential over Parayko. There's a reason Columbus gave up a #1 Center to acquire this guy.
    Take that with a grain of salt. I mean the Oiler's gave up arguably a top 5 LW in the LEAGUE (let alone on his own team) for Larsson. I still call that over payment. Quite possibly in the same shade as Johansson for Jones. No knock to Jones, but I'd take Jones and Parayko over Larsson as a fantasy asset any day of the week. And I also wonder if the Oilers would have preferred either Parayko/Jones in place of Larsson (Not thinking about "handedness" at the moment...just big picture).

    Just because the Jackets gave up a #1 Centre doesn't necessarily give an accurate gauge of value in a Head to Head vs Parayko. I'm inclined to agree that Jones has a higher ceiling and this holds more value, but I think it's a whole lot closer (for Fantasy) depending on how situations on both teams pan out.

  5. #5
    Location
    Beaumont, AB
    Rep Power
    50

    Dobber Sports Icon

    Default Re: A match-up inspired by your votes!

    Another great read and interesting match up. Thank you for this.

    The article reminds me of my biggest issue with people who look at stats and use them to predict the future. Stats/60 minutes of ice time is a terrible predictive stat. I can find no correlation between a high points/60 in one season and an increase in points in future seasons. Maybe I have not looked into this enough but until someone can prove me wrong, it will continue to bother me whenever people use points/60 to say that one player is more likely to have more points than a player with a lower points/60.

    The 3rd pairing offensive dman who only starts shifts in the attacking zone and plays regularly on the PP will have a higher points/60 than a regular top 4 dman who starts in all ends. If that 3rd pairing dman moves into an all situations role, his points/60 will decrease while his ice time increases. This does not mean that he will have more points.

    In this case specifically, where is Colton Parayko going to get more ice time from? He's a right shot just like Alex Pietrangelo so Parayko is not going to be a top pairing dman even if Shattenkirk is traded. He won't surpass Pietrangelo for 1st PP ice time and the Blues, just like 2/3 of all NHL teams, use 4 forwards on their first PP unit. If Shattenkirk does get traded, Parayko's points will probably suffer because his partner

    Give me Seth Jones in this matchup in a heartbeat. I predict Jones has at least 10 more points than Parayko this season.

  6. #6
    Feenom's Avatar
    Feenom is offline
    Join Date
    Jul 2016
    Posts
    4,474
    Location
    On a beach
    Rep Power
    50

    Dobber Sports Genius

    Default Re: A match-up inspired by your votes!

    Quote Originally Posted by havanablast21 View Post
    Take that with a grain of salt. I mean the Oiler's gave up arguably a top 5 LW in the LEAGUE (let alone on his own team) for Larsson. I still call that over payment. Quite possibly in the same shade as Johansson for Jones. No knock to Jones, but I'd take Jones and Parayko over Larsson as a fantasy asset any day of the week. And I also wonder if the Oilers would have preferred either Parayko/Jones in place of Larsson (Not thinking about "handedness" at the moment...just big picture).

    Just because the Jackets gave up a #1 Centre doesn't necessarily give an accurate gauge of value in a Head to Head vs Parayko. I'm inclined to agree that Jones has a higher ceiling and this holds more value, but I think it's a whole lot closer (for Fantasy) depending on how situations on both teams pan out.
    Oh for sure but I think the Johansen for Jones deal is very different from the Hall for Larsson deal. I really think Edmonton panicked a bit. Plus many pundits said they just wanted a "culture" change in the locker room, meaning it's no longer Hall's team it's now McDavids. Nashville always coveted a #1C so in order to do that Jones was expendable. Plus all the negotiation problems Johansen had in Columbus made the deal make sense for both sides. The Hall for Larsson deal makes no sense to me. But that's hockey.


    Oilers would love to have either of Jones/Parayko over Larsson for sure. As for H2H, Parayko vs Jones, depending on the cats, I think Jones wins most anyways and with a full season in Columbus he will prove that, or should anyways.

  7. #7
    Rep Power
    50

    The Magnificent One

    Default Re: A match-up inspired by your votes!

    Quote Originally Posted by chuckcouples View Post
    Another great read and interesting match up. Thank you for this.

    The article reminds me of my biggest issue with people who look at stats and use them to predict the future. Stats/60 minutes of ice time is a terrible predictive stat. I can find no correlation between a high points/60 in one season and an increase in points in future seasons. Maybe I have not looked into this enough but until someone can prove me wrong, it will continue to bother me whenever people use points/60 to say that one player is more likely to have more points than a player with a lower points/60.

    The 3rd pairing offensive dman who only starts shifts in the attacking zone and plays regularly on the PP will have a higher points/60 than a regular top 4 dman who starts in all ends. If that 3rd pairing dman moves into an all situations role, his points/60 will decrease while his ice time increases. This does not mean that he will have more points.

    In this case specifically, where is Colton Parayko going to get more ice time from? He's a right shot just like Alex Pietrangelo so Parayko is not going to be a top pairing dman even if Shattenkirk is traded. He won't surpass Pietrangelo for 1st PP ice time and the Blues, just like 2/3 of all NHL teams, use 4 forwards on their first PP unit. If Shattenkirk does get traded, Parayko's points will probably suffer because his partner

    Give me Seth Jones in this matchup in a heartbeat. I predict Jones has at least 10 more points than Parayko this season.
    Many good points, but I'm not sure about the bolded part. You do realize that Pietrangelo's PP Ice Time has dropped every season since 2011-12, right?

    2011-12 = 2:52 per game
    2012-13 = 2:51 per game
    2013-14 = 2:48 per game
    2014-15 = 2:26 per game
    2015-16 = 2:17 per game
    DobberHockey Senior Writer (columnist since 2012)
    Click here to read my weekly "Roos Lets Loose" columns, going live every Wednesday morning and consisting of a rotating schedule of a "forum buzz" column, a fantasy hockey mailbag, a tournament/poll, and an edition of Goldipucks and the Three Skaters: https://dobberhockey.com/category/ho...key-rick-roos/

  8. #8
    Rep Power
    23

    Dobber Sports Stud

    Default Re: A match-up inspired by your votes!

    Parayko can and will surpass Pietrangelo for top PP time... So long as Shattenkirk is gone which seems like a formality at this point. Maybe he plays the season, but I doubt he re-ups there.

    I like Parayko's offensive ceiling a bit more than Jones, but I also love the idea of Werenski and Jones forming a seriously deadly two-way combo on that back end. Toss and elite scorer and they could have a lot of fun on the PP.

  9. #9
    Sulla's Avatar
    Sulla is offline
    Join Date
    May 2014
    Posts
    9,585
    Rep Power
    50

    The Great One

    Default Re: A match-up inspired by your votes!

    Ah but where does that elite scorer come from...
    Experience is the teacher of all things.


Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •