Devising An Odd Draft Strategy

[WeissAsNice]

Thank you to everyone who helped me decide on my keepers. My league is holding its annual live draft this coming weekend, and I'm in a very strange position with my draft picks. I had already traded my 3rd and 5th round picks last season to try to make a championship run, leaving me a bit thin for this draft. Yesterday, I got a deal that was too good to pass up, and dealt my 2nd round pick for LeSean McCoy (6th round equivalent choice after 4 keepers selected by each team, basically gave me an extra keeper for giving up the pick).

My current team heading into the draft is:

PPR 12 team league

RB: LeSean McCoy, Dion Lewis
WR: Julio Jones, Randall Cobb
TE: Rob Gronkowski

It's a great foundation, especially if Lewis can return to form. But, I now have to face the challenge of only having 2 picks in the first 5 rounds of a 12 team league. Players are going to fly off the board.

The big questions is: who do I target with that first round pick? I pick 9th and won't be picking again until the 4th round. To help out, here are the best players available at each position, according to ESPN's PPR top 300.

QBs: Russell Wilson, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Carson Palmer, Eli Manning, Phillip Rivers...etc

RBs: Ezekiel Elliott, Danny Woodhead, Eddie Lacy, Carlos Hyde, Thomas Rawls, Jonathan Stewart, Ryan Matthews, Duke Johnson, Gio Bernard, Frank Gore, Arian Foster, Rashad Jennings, Matt Jones, Theo Riddick...DeMarco Murray...etc

WRs: Brandin Cooks, Golden Tate, Jeremy Maclin, Jordan Matthews, Donte Moncrief, Larry Fitzgerald, Doug Baldwin, Michael Floyd, DeVante Parker, John Brown, Michael Crabtree, Marvin Jones, Kevin White, Sterling Shepard, Willie Snead, DeSean Jackson, Josh Gordon...etc

TEs: Everyone but Gronk and Jordan Reed

So what is my priority at 9th overall? I have 2 backs, 2 receivers and a TE (in a 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX system). Do I grab Russel Wilson or Drew Brees if available to lockdown my QB position? If I don't, who will be left by the 4th round? The top RBs available are extremely tempting, but unless one of the first five lasts, do I pass? Do I target a Tate type to bolster the receiver core? I've never been in the position of having so few picks, but I had to go for it last year, and had to take the McCoy trade this year. I will try to deal future picks to recoup some, but that rarely works. Thoughts? You guys are the best.

[PenguinHunter]

Russel Wilson is the choice for me... based on the expectation that Ezekiel Elliot is gone.

[WeissAsNice]

Russel Wilson is the choice for me... based on the expectation that Ezekiel Elliot is gone.

I would be surprised if Elliott isn't the first choice.

In a hypothetical situation where Wilson is gone at 9, do you take Brees, or go best RB/WR at that point? I guess the better question is, what is the threshold here to take a QB? At what point is it better to just wait until everyone has a QB and take one super late?

[rataylor22]

Cooks
Moncrief
Floyd
Brees
Wilson
Maclin
Parker
Baldwin
Snead

Is how I would rank my selections. One of those WRs are who you want.

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Your draft pick situation doesn't put you in a position to take a QB IMO. So much more depth there than every other position.

[PenguinHunter]

I would be surprised if Elliott isn't the first choice.

In a hypothetical situation where Wilson is gone at 9, do you take Brees, or go best RB/WR at that point? I guess the better question is, what is the threshold here to take a QB? At what point is it better to just wait until everyone has a QB and take one super late?

No, if you cannot get Wilson, then I wait on a QB and take a WR to fill your 3rd WR slot.

Brees is getting old
Brady is suspended 4 games so might slip to your next pick.
Palmer, Manning and Rivers - if they go before your 4th round pick someone is reaching.

[rataylor22]

No, if you cannot get Wilson, then I wait on a QB and take a WR to fill your 3rd WR slot.

Brees is getting old
Brady is suspended 4 games so might slip to your next pick.
Palmer, Manning and Rivers - if they go before your 4th round pick someone is reaching.

Brees was the #2 QB after he came back from injury last in week 4. Wilson had an unsustainable hot streak to end last season. Neither player is worth his 9th overall selection, but I'll take Brees over Russ. Plus. The Saints D will be terrible again. Brees is gonna throw all over the field.

[PenguinHunter]

Brees was the #2 QB after he came back from injury last in week 4. Wilson had an unsustainable hot streak to end last season. Neither player is worth his 9th overall selection, but I'll take Brees over Russ. Plus. The Saints D will be terrible again. Brees is gonna throw all over the field.

I agree the Saints D will be and he will... I am just concerned on his age and expect him to decline.

And Wilson will have to through more this year because he doesn't have Beast Mode anymore. And the last half of last year he proved he could do it.

And its not really a 9th overall selection... more like 57th overall (12 teams * 4 keepers + 9th overall) and in a 12 team league, I would love to have Wilson (3rd best QB in my opinion) at 57th overall.

[rataylor22]

I agree the Saints D will be and he will... I am just concerned on his age and expect him to decline.

And Wilson will have to through more this year because he doesn't have Beast Mode anymore. And the last half of last year he proved he could do it.

And its not really a 9th overall selection... more like 57th overall (12 teams * 4 keepers + 9th overall) and in a 12 team league, I would love to have Wilson (3rd best QB in my opinion) at 57th overall.

In an ideal situation sure, but not when you don't have another pick for 4 rounds.

[PenguinHunter]

In an ideal situation sure, but not when you don't have another pick for 4 rounds.

It is my understanding that he has a pick in the 4th round. and if it is a snake draft it should be 3rd overall in the 4th round.

But I do see your point. I always have the strategy of drafting a QB that I can safely play all season so I don't have to sit one on my bench and decide who to play week to week.

[Goldendelicious]

I would wait on a QB no matter what. Value all over the place that with your foundation, you don't need a Tier 1/2 QB in order to push for the title. Guys like Manning, Rivers etc are going to provide great value in later rounds without paying those premium costs.

I would target a WR with your first round pick. Being as you have the flex position, don't be shy to take a RB if available. Lacy would be a great pick at 9 if he falls to you there. Right now, I would rank my tops as follows (even though Elliott will be gone):
Elliott
Cooks
Moncreif
Lacy
Floyd
Maclin
Rawls
J.Matthews
Baldwin
Marvin Jones
Jennings
R.Matthews
Brown
Snead

I concern myself with getting a primary receiver or RB before going for a QB in round 1.

[Eskimo Brother]

I would wait on a QB no matter what. Value all over the place that with your foundation, you don't need a Tier 1/2 QB in order to push for the title. Guys like Manning, Rivers etc are going to provide great value in later rounds without paying those premium costs.

I would target a WR with your first round pick. Being as you have the flex position, don't be shy to take a RB if available. Lacy would be a great pick at 9 if he falls to you there. Right now, I would rank my tops as follows (even though Elliott will be gone):
Elliott
Cooks
Moncreif
Lacy
Floyd
Maclin
Rawls
J.Matthews
Baldwin
Marvin Jones
Jennings
R.Matthews
Brown
Snead

I concern myself with getting a primary receiver or RB before going for a QB in round 1.

This is the strategy I was thinkig as well. If there is a steal in the 4th round too for a RB or WR as well, then I would be happy filling that out, then streaming two QBs from later selections on a week to week basis.

[WeissAsNice]

It is my understanding that he has a pick in the 4th round. and if it is a snake draft it should be 3rd overall in the 4th round.

But I do see your point. I always have the strategy of drafting a QB that I can safely play all season so I don't have to sit one on my bench and decide who to play week to week.

For the record, it's NFL style, so reverse order of standings in every round. Ninth pick of the 4th round.

I would wait on a QB no matter what. Value all over the place that with your foundation, you don't need a Tier 1/2 QB in order to push for the title. Guys like Manning, Rivers etc are going to provide great value in later rounds without paying those premium costs.

I would target a WR with your first round pick. Being as you have the flex position, don't be shy to take a RB if available. Lacy would be a great pick at 9 if he falls to you there. Right now, I would rank my tops as follows (even though Elliott will be gone):
Elliott
Cooks
Moncreif
Lacy
Floyd
Maclin
Rawls
J.Matthews
Baldwin
Marvin Jones
Jennings
R.Matthews
Brown
Snead

I concern myself with getting a primary receiver or RB before going for a QB in round 1.

I'm kind of in line with this thinking, as well. With the open flex, I'm going to need either 2 more WRs or 1 more RB, every single week, so I need to lock down another high end one if possible early.

[Zorro]

If Cooks, Elliott, and Lacy are gone, then give me Wilson or Bree's..