Rankings goalie prospects vs skaters

[scoob19]

I'm participating in a startup prospect draft and am not sure how to rank a goalie like Murray (still considered prospect) vs other skaters.

League is 12 team H2H roto, cats are pretty standard (includes hits for skater and saves for goalies).

Vas, Helle or not considered prospects and Murray is just about the only impact guy that would still be avail in this format. What skater prospect tier would you put him in?

[tobias]

I usually make separate tiers for separate positions (goalies, defensemen, forwards // QB, WR, RB, TE in football, for example).

In terms of goalie prospects, Murray is a tier 1 guy, and most likely the only guy in that tier (or even if a hypothetical tier 2). For example, a guy like Samsonov looks awesome, but he's so far down the pipeline, that his tier doesn't even register right now. Seeing as there are only 30 starting goalie positions, I would say that he is the most valuable of players out there.

When you consider forwards, look at Dobber's list: http://www.dobberhockey.com/?p=40669. If you set the prospect ranking cut-off for tier 1 at 90, then you have five guys in that tier (Matthews, Laine, Puljujarvi, Marner, and Strome). If you put tier 2's cut off at 75, you have another 7 forwards. In a 12 team draft, that means that you should be able to get at least one forward prospect who is "Vesey or better".

For these reasons, I would say that Murray is the most valuable prospect. If you cannot get him, some guys are starting to toot Saros' horn (Nashville) this off-season. With Rinne's injury history, he could be the next best bet goalie prospect to see any action. However, I wouldn't be passing on a high end defensive or offensive prospect to get him.

[Bazz]

Is Demko available? If not Murray stands alone than Sorokin than Samsonov/Shesterkin. I always go F > D > G.

[scoob19]

Maybe I wasn't clear but this is actually a fresh dynasty league, we just happen to be having a prospect draft before the rest of the league, so yes Demko and all other goalie prospects would be availble (as well as all forward prospects). Traditionally I wait on goalies, I'm just wondering at what point do i grab Murray instead of a skater prospect?

tobias: you say "For these reasons, I would say that Murray is the most valuable prospect.", does that mean you would rather have him than that 2nd tier of skaters like Dvorak/Aho/Rantanen/Connor/Vesey?

[als_revenge]

If it's a start 1G, then no, Murray isn't a top tier prospect. If it's a start 2G, then he is way up there, IMO. It's really hard to say without knowing the format of your league.

[scoob19]

My bad, yes its a start 2G. And I believe 9F (3L/3R/3C), 4D, 3UT.

[Bazz]

I would rather draft sorokin mid to late round 2. You'll probably see a 60/40 split flower/murray. Sorokin has a contract through spring 2018 in the khl which to me says you'll get a year maybe two of murray being a 1A before Sorokin starts his NHL career. Or wait till round 3 for samsonov/shesterkin, round 4 for Blackwood. I would rather have the tier 1 or 2 F a top D prospect before a goalie prospect, even like Murray.

[Sulla]

Also key is establishing the GM dynamic - if acquiring a goalie is going to cost you a kings ransom and a kidney then I bump goalies up but if you know you can acquire them for a 'fair/slight overpay' then I go BPA and who would net me the best return in a future deal I.e. Laine

[tobias]

What are your prospect rules? How long can they stay on your farm team?

If you draft him in the prospect draft, would you essentially just be moving him up to your main team right away? I'm not against this idea. I tend to go with the odds.... which are that most prospects do not pan out, or at least, fall short of their hype when drafted and being groomed. MOST. Certainly not all. You know what you'd have in Murray right now, and getting him in the prospect draft to use at your 2G or 3G, instantly takes a bit of goalie drafting pressure off of you.

Yes, those other tier 2 type guys SHOULD be good, but who really knows what happens. Murray is more of a sure thing at this point in his career than he is a starter, in my opinion.

Also, if you're in a 12 team dynasty league, let's say that every team has 2 starting goalies. That is 24 goalies gone. If you get hit with an injury, the waiver wire options are usually pretty slim in dynasty leagues once you have at least 12 teams.

Just my thoughts... Good luck!

[Jouko-Pouko]

I would have Murray in the 2nd tier of forward prospects, so right behind Matthews, Laine and Puljujärvi. That group includes Nylander, Strome, Marner and Dubois. I might end up taking those forwards ahead of Murray but I would at least consider him already there. At #8, Murray would probably be the best option available.

I would probably start considering Demko, Sorokin and Samsonov somewhere around round 3. Maybe even see if one of them slips to round 4.

[scoob19]

What are your prospect rules? How long can they stay on your farm team?

I can keep a prospect on the farm until he hits 40GP (skaters) or 20GP (goalies), then I'm required to bring him up the next year but can leave him on the farm the year he hits the requirements. Didn't mention but it's also a cap league, and prospects will be free (or very cheap) entry level contract for 3 years i believe.

I would have Murray in the 2nd tier of forward prospects, so right behind Matthews, Laine and Puljujärvi. That group includes Nylander, Strome, Marner and Dubois. I might end up taking those forwards ahead of Murray but I would at least consider him already there. At #8, Murray would probably be the best option available.

One other thing to note in this prospect draft is that because of some rules implemented, the tier 1 guys from the dobber rankings (Laine, Mathews, Strome, Puljujarvi, Marner) are not available, they will be in the auction that proceeds the prospect draft. So the top available skaters in the draft are Nylander, Dubois, Dvorak, Aho, etc and I have the 4th pick.

Sounds like if Murray is sitting there at #4 then I should grab him, or at least it's not unreasonable to do so.

[Jouko-Pouko]

One other thing to note in this prospect draft is that because of some rules implemented, the tier 1 guys from the dobber rankings (Laine, Mathews, Strome, Puljujarvi, Marner) are not available, they will be in the auction that proceeds the prospect draft. So the top available skaters in the draft are Nylander, Dubois, Dvorak, Aho, etc and I have the 4th pick.

Sounds like if Murray is sitting there at #4 then I should grab him, or at least it's not unreasonable to do so.

If it comes down to Dvorak, Aho or Murray, I would be taking Murray there for sure. Both Dvorak and Aho project as 2nd line players who will score between 55 and 65 points. I think a starting goalie is way more valuable, and although nothing is certain with prospects, Murray has been awesome so far in his young career.

[chuckcouples]

I would not bother drafting any prospect goalie who is not at least in the AHL. It is way too difficult to predict what a goalie is going to become. Jacob Markstrom is the example I like to use for this, he was the highest ranking goalie prospect around 2009. He then fell off the charts only to become a likely starting goalie in 2016. That's an awfully long wait for a fantasy GM to see a return on their investment. This is more the norm than the exception to the rule. There are always goalies who become good goalies after being late round draft picks so I only draft older prospect goalies in my leagues.

With all of that said, Matt Murray is already an NHL goalie. I don't think he's going to start more than 30 NHL games this season which is more than any other prospect goalie can be safely predicted to play. For that reason, Murray is quite valuable and I would be taking him at pick #4 based on the top tier prospects not being available.