Pittsburgh goalie keeper debate

[Eskimo Brother]

I took over a bottom feeder team at the end of last year (should be a good contender this coming year however), where you can keep one goalie. I had Fleury who I was planning on keeping, and traded away the rest of them. Picked up Murray before his run just as the handcuff, but seem to have really just handcuffed myself. Now I get one half of the pittsburgh goalie duo (hopefully I can just redraft the other half). Fleury should be my choice to keep, but I thought I would bounce it off of you guys just to see what people think.

12 teams, rosters of 30, start 2 G. Stats are: games started, wins, GAA, Sv, Sv% and shutouts.

Really it comes down to which goalie you see starting more this season (does one get traded) and if Fleury now, is worth more to me than Murray down the line.

[als_revenge]

Generally, I like Fleury more this year, and Murray more every year thereafter. I think Murray will be in a better situation beginning next year. Can you still do trades? Presumably Murray and Fleury are both top-24 goalies and have some value. I wouldn't necessarily bank on being able to re-draft your handcuff, especially if it's Murray.

[Sulla]

Fleury and Fleury... He has golden boy status and too good a contract to sit. When/if he is moved he will carry the same leverage

[Noddes55]

I honestly see a 50/50 split this season. Fleury will be gone at some point(deadline or expansion) so this year who knows, next year and beyond Murray hands down.

[FinnishFlash]

I prefer Fleury this year. How high will your first pick be, and what is the likelihood you could redraft either of them?

[Call of Doughty]

Good debate. I think these two might slip on draft days as owners may have cold feet when it comes to selecting either one. My gut says MAF, but we'll have a better feel through training camp.

[Ingolo]

I'd also be keeping Fleury. I don't see him getting much more than 50-53 starts, but he'll still likely get more than Murray. Plus, if he gets moved anywhere, it'll be to take over a #1 job. I think looking to redraft Murray is a good option, since beyond this season you're likely going to end up with 2 very good starters, and during this year you'll get all the starts for the Stanley Cup champs who really didn't need to change their roster all that much. Like others have asked as well though, what kind of pick do you expect to need to use to redraft Murray? That might make a difference, especially if there are other tenders available who may yield you better results.

[als_revenge]

Good debate. I think these two might slip on draft days as owners may have cold feet when it comes to selecting either one. My gut says MAF, but we'll have a better feel through training camp.

What makes this hard is that it's 12 teams, start 2G and every team keeps 1 goalie. But we have no idea if there are any rebuilding teams in the make up. You can't always assume that every team is drafting with this year in mind. I could see Murray going very early, based on expectations for him in 2017-18 and beyond. Same with Vasilevsky.

[stevegamer]

I would say that this year you should keep the one you would expect to keep next year, since you are retooling a team, and while a reasonably strong contender, you are probably a year away from being a top contender. The 2 goalies play on the same team, so really there are fewer factors to evaluate than usual.

Injury risk:
I think Fleury is slightly more likely to get hurt than Murray

Category Strengths:
Fleury is an average NHL goalie for SV% & GAA, but is top-10 or better for wins & top half for shutouts. Fleury's start volume (pretty much top-11 per year in his career, unless hurt) insures he racks up the wins, but I think his start volume drops this season, which hurts his stronger categories, and his rate stats aren't always great.

Murray's sample size is small, but Fleury has never put up a GAA or SV% as good as what Murray did last year. I'd expect him to be at worst equal to Fleury in ability to get wins in Pittsburgh, given the same team in front of him, and to put up better ratio stats. He may not run quite so hot/cold as Fleury, so he may get less shutouts.

Future prospects:
You want whichever one ends up in Pittsburgh moving forward after this year, unless they both end up on good teams.

I would keep Murray, since you know you will need to draft another strong goalie this year anyway to do anything in the pool, and he is the guy who I think help you more moing forward, while not being much different this year, depending on workload split.

[Eskimo Brother]

What makes this hard is that it's 12 teams, start 2G and every team keeps 1 goalie. But we have no idea if there are any rebuilding teams in the make up. You can't always assume that every team is drafting with this year in mind. I could see Murray going very early, based on expectations for him in 2017-18 and beyond. Same with Vasilevsky.

You got the gist of it. Tough to deal goalies because only 12 are kept. Only two GMS are currently "rebuilding" so not much room there.

I would say that this year you should keep the one you would expect to keep next year, since you are retooling a team, and while a reasonably strong contender, you are probably a year away from being a top contender. The 2 goalies play on the same team, so really there are fewer factors to evaluate than usual.

Injury risk:
I think Fleury is slightly more likely to get hurt than Murray

Category Strengths:
Fleury is an average NHL goalie for SV% & GAA, but is top-10 or better for wins & top half for shutouts. Fleury's start volume (pretty much top-11 per year in his career, unless hurt) insures he racks up the wins, but I think his start volume drops this season, which hurts his stronger categories, and his rate stats aren't always great.

Murray's sample size is small, but Fleury has never put up a GAA or SV% as good as what Murray did last year. I'd expect him to be at worst equal to Fleury in ability to get wins in Pittsburgh, given the same team in front of him, and to put up better ratio stats. He may not run quite so hot/cold as Fleury, so he may get less shutouts.

Future prospects:
You want whichever one ends up in Pittsburgh moving forward after this year, unless they both end up on good teams.

I would keep Murray, since you know you will need to draft another strong goalie this year anyway to do anything in the pool, and he is the guy who I think help you more moing forward, while not being much different this year, depending on workload split.

I like the evaluation here of picking the guy that I will most likely keep next year, which might be Murray.

Lots to think about here, thanks guys!

[Eskimo Brother]

I prefer Fleury this year. How high will your first pick be, and what is the likelihood you could redraft either of them?

Pretty sure I pick 3rd overall, definitely not grabbing a goalie there. However, I do have a few picks in the first few rounds, so I don't mind reaching for a goalie with one of them.

[Axeman33]

Fleury is the choice for me between these two. Too small of a sample from Murray to consider him over Fleury.

[Pengwin7]

Fleury for me too.
In a 12-team, keep 1G, it's not going to be a highly coveted keeper unless you have one of Holtby/Price/Quick.

I think Fleury gets 2/3 starts, which is 54/82gp.

[Call of Doughty]

Fleury is the choice for me between these two. Too small of a sample from Murray to consider him over Fleury.

But what a sample size it was lol...................

[Sulla]

When Niemi won it the Hawks were pretty happy to move him.. And they did OK with that