Mrazek predictions

[ajcormier]

What do you guys think about Mrazek vs. Schneider? My league counts wins (2) and shutouts (3). It's a quasi-keeper league (top 7). Cheers!

[Eskimo Brother]

Assuming you're only keeping 1? I would make it Schneider. He's the better goalie and there's no timeshare.

[stevegamer]

I still have a very competitive team and I finished first and second the past two seasons, so I could probably go for it once more.

...

I'm of those who believe that Rinne still has 2-3 solid seasons remaining (especially in a wins + SO format), but there aren't many GMs in my league who agree. A few have interest, but it feels like this is my best opportunity to get something significant in return... I guess it's always the same predicament with over 30 years old productive veterans.

Sometimes you have to ride your veteran until they retire or need replacing. I had a similar situation with Peyton, among others in a dynasty football league. People would inquire about players, move topic to Peyton, and then say, he's old. Yes, but he was still elite - this was a couple years before he missed a year, then went to Denver. Ended up just keeping him. Did the same with a Hasek-Roy goalie tandem in my dynasty from my initial draft. They eventually become too old to net anything good in return, and are too valuable to lose for less.

[lucafen4]

I'd prefer Mrazek over Rinne, but Rinne's a sell low right now.. so I'd hang on and maximize his value as Eskimo said and wait to move him mid-season

[Sulla]

Schneider over Mrazek... lot less question marks and I think these teams are trending in opposite directions right now

[TOCanadafan]

Like the goalie a lot, but don't like the team. I expect the Wings to miss out on the playoffs this year, but if they make it in, it'll likely be because of Mrazek. Really like Nashville this year, so I'd go with Rinne.

[rufio.85]

Hey guys, I'm reviving this thread since there has been some development...

I could trade my Rinne + a non-keeper player for Mrazek + Stepan.
I'd keep Stepan over a player like Steen and get younger in net with Mrazek, although I could be waiting a few years before getting meaningful wins from him...
I would also have to potentially let go 35 wins, provided Rinne is healthy. My team is competitive, but my draft picks this season are terrible, so it's probably a transition year for me.

What is your take on this trade?

[stevegamer]

Hey guys, I'm reviving this thread since there has been some development...
I could trade my Rinne + a non-keeper player for Mrazek + Stepan.
I'd keep Stepan over a player like Steen and get younger in net with Mrazek, although I could be waiting a few years before getting meaningful wins from him...
I would also have to potentially let go 35 wins, provided Rinne is healthy. My team is competitive, but my draft picks this season are terrible, so it's probably a transition year for me.

What is your take on this trade?

A couple of points:

1. Rinne wins less Mrazek wins probably will net out to 6 or 7 if both are healthy this year. So I'd say you are giving up 7 wins, rather than 35. I replied above, but I view Mrazek as a future stud goalie, based on his rate stats, specifically save% and quality start%. I know you don't count the former, and the latter just indicates how often his save% is average or better, but that does help get wins. Rinne is a past stud goalie, and a current good goalie in your format, who is pretty old.

2. I would think Steen wouldn't be one of your keepers since he's on your bench. Stepan is younger than Steen, but about the same caliber of producer, so it's upside you are after. If Stepan is an upgrade over your #12 keeper, maybe that gives you another guy to deal, to upgrade somewhere again? Defense would be a spot I'd target.

[Pengwin7]

I prefer Rinne/Steen over Mrazek/Stepan.
Steen is actually a consistent top 50 skater (per game) in most fantasy hockey formats.
And I like NAS overall way better than DET - which should take a BIG step back this year. The playoff streak will end for DET this year.

[Eskimo Brother]

Put me in the Rinne/Steen camp too. Even though Steen is going to miss the start of the season.
And yes, you're losing wins, but not 35 or them. More like 5-10.

[rufio.85]

A couple of points:
1. Rinne wins less Mrazek wins probably will net out to 6 or 7 if both are healthy this year. So I'd say you are giving up 7 wins, rather than 35. I replied above, but I view Mrazek as a future stud goalie, based on his rate stats, specifically save% and quality start%. I know you don't count the former, and the latter just indicates how often his save% is average or better, but that does help get wins. Rinne is a past stud goalie, and a current good goalie in your format, who is pretty old.

And yes, you're losing wins, but not 35 or them. More like 5-10.

Yes I realize that I'm not losing 35 wins per se, I was implying that I would trade a valuable goalie in my format. That said, very valid points throughout... many thanks guys.
For the record, Steen is on the bubble as far as my keepers go. I'm hesitating between him, Marchand and Muzzin as my 12th and last protected player.
I've been dangling Rinne for several months now, other GMs in my pool feel like he's a depreciating asset but he has been a top-20 points producer in my league for the past 2 seasons.
I'm still in the fence on this one... my head says get something in return before it's too late and my instinct tells me to keep him and take another run, even if my chances are slim.

[Eskimo Brother]

Keep him, and go for the run. It's tough to get good value for the older guys in the offseason. It's also easier to go from trying to contend, to looking at next year in the middle of the season, than the other way around. Always start looking at trying to win this year.

[Sulla]

Amd the fact contending teams tend to pay a premium for vets when they are in it to win it and I think in your set up Rinne should fall in that category