Keep 5 league: Should I hoard goalies with my 2 first round picks?

[J0e Th0rnton]

Hey all! Just doing some early thinking for this years draft.
Keep 5 league in my sig, but it is expanding to 14 teams from the current 12(The two expansion teams get a draft before the main draft). My 5 keepers are McDavid, Tavares, Seguin, Draisaitl and Talbot

Was considering keeping Hellboy over Talbot because I think he will be a stud, but Talbot is in a guaranteed starter position on an improved team, while Hellebuyck might be splitting starts with Pavelec on a team that hasn't made many moved to improve.

But overall, I was rebuilding last year and I have 6 picks in the first 3 rounds of the draft, no picks in rounds 4, 5 and 6 and then normal one a round.

My concern is what will be left for goalies after keepers are selected. A cursory evaluation tells me the following goalies will be kept and not in the draft: Mrazek, Rinne, Lundqvist, Fleury, Bishop, Bobrovsky, Talbot, Allen, Jones, Crawford, Price, Quick, Holtby, Gibson, Schneider. 3 teams are likely to keep 2 goalies.

Those left will be exposed first to the expansion teams: Mason, Miller, Smith, Dubnyk, Luongo, Anderson, Niemi, Hellebuyck, Varlamov, Halak, Elliott, Rask, Andersen, Lehner, Ward, Reimer, Murray, Pavelec, Lehtonen.

My guess is the expansion teams at LEAST take Rask and Dubnyk, and possibly draft 2nd goalies in their expansion draft since the pool gets thinner and they will want to leverage them for trades as 1st year expansion teams. They draft 13th and 14th in the snake draft since they are taking 10 off the top of the pool to start.

One other guy has 3 picks in the first round and his only goalie is Mrazek. I suspect he will draft 2 goalies in the first round. By my count, the list of reliable(For starts) goalies shrinks very fast if we chop possibly 6 off that list above.

Assuming Rask and Dubnyk are gone, which goalies would you target first round?

[Sulla]

I think you were right to keep Talbot here

Elliott, Anderson and then maybe Varly, Mason and Halak but they all carry risk of injury

Reimer and Lou would be value but you probably need to take both

Andersen may have some value depending on how good the leafs can be but I'm avoiding him and Murray will be a 1a/1b at best so depends on the volume of starts you need

After that it is hail marys...

[Ingolo]

I'd say you'll get the best stats out of Lu and Elliot, whereas you'll get the best trade value from Andersen (there's a Leafs homer in every league, right?). I agree with Sulla that Varlamov, Mason and Halak are all great options as well, but carry injury risk. I'd let someone else take the chance. Reimer is a great handcuff for Lu if you take him as well, especially with Lu out for October.

[Eskimo Brother]

If you're planning on contending: Andersen, Elliott, Mason and Varlamov are the first ones I look into.

Helle, Murray, Reimer and Halak would be tier 2 for me.

[J0e Th0rnton]

For everyone, there is an outside chance that the Holtby/Gibson owner only keeps Holtby and exposes Gibson(My guess is his keepers are Panarin, Hall, Ghost and those two, but he might get cute and keep Henrique since he is now playing with Hall, Voracek because he is a flyers fan, or decides to keep one of Larkin/Domi since he likes young budding superstars like I do). If so, it is highly likely he is the first goalie taken by expansion teams.

I think you were right to keep Talbot here

Elliott, Anderson and then maybe Varly, Mason and Halak but they all carry risk of injury

Reimer and Lou would be value but you probably need to take both

Andersen may have some value depending on how good the leafs can be but I'm avoiding him and Murray will be a 1a/1b at best so depends on the volume of starts you need

After that it is hail marys...

Injury risk vs teams that did not do so hot last year and have new coaches
(Calgary)
Why do I have this feeling Varlamov is going to have a bounceback year? lol

Taking Reimer and Lu is intriguing and that is the best looking team available. Guess I need to see how the draft order rounds out.

I'd say you'll get the best stats out of Lu and Elliot, whereas you'll get the best trade value from Andersen (there's a Leafs homer in every league, right?). I agree with Sulla that Varlamov, Mason and Halak are all great options as well, but carry injury risk. I'd let someone else take the chance. Reimer is a great handcuff for Lu if you take him as well, especially with Lu out for October.

No leaf homers in this league. But a lot of Andersen lovers.
The flyers did okay down the stretch so Mason is definitely on my radar.

If you're planning on contending: Andersen, Elliott, Mason and Varlamov are the first ones I look into.

Helle, Murray, Reimer and Halak would be tier 2 for me.

Leafs and Flames and Avalanche make me nervous. leafs being the leafs and a goalie graveyard, Flames needing to adjust to a new coach and Elliott no longer protected by hitchcock's defensive shell.

Colorado seems to be stepping backwards, but Varly does play a ton of games.

[Eskimo Brother]

Leafs and Flames and Avalanche make me nervous. leafs being the leafs and a goalie graveyard, Flames needing to adjust to a new coach and Elliott no longer protected by hitchcock's defensive shell.

Colorado seems to be stepping backwards, but Varly does play a ton of games.

Fair enough. Don't take guys on your team that you don't want/like. We're just here to be a sounding board.
Mason is a good pick out of them if you can deal with the injury risk. If you do pick up Halak, make sure you grab Greiss fast too.

[Sulla]

I'd bro trying to acquire goalies now as see,s the players available will be better than the goalies that will be

[J0e Th0rnton]

Fair enough. Don't take guys on your team that you don't want/like. We're just here to be a sounding board.
Mason is a good pick out of them if you can deal with the injury risk. If you do pick up Halak, make sure you grab Greiss fast too.

Its not that I don't like them, it is that I was to hear arguments regarding my concerns lol. Sell me on Andersen and Elliott! They are guaranteed starters!

The league counts shots against, so that could in theory balance the "Loss" category

I'd bro trying to acquire goalies now as see,s the players available will be better than the goalies that will be

?

I feel safe in my drafting of forwards and defensemen regardless of round. The goalie supply is going to be very low if what I think happens happens. I.E both expansion teams take 2 goalies and the Mrazek owner who has 3 first round picks takes 2 goalies 1st round. He was bitten by not drafting goalies last year, so I suspect he will.

Since I was rebuilding last year, I did not care if I won or lost so long as I could make 3 for 1 trades(Got Tavares for Larkin + Steen + Josi and got Seguin for similar ) and stockpile a few high round picks(6 in the first 3 rounds of drafting)

Last year at one point I was carrying 5 goalies. Bishop, Elliott, Reimer, Miller and Talbot. Injuries started and suddenly I was the bank loaning goalies for picks lol

[Sulla]

Sorry using my phone lol

I would be trying to acquire a goalie pre draft and using my picks for forwards and d men

[Eskimo Brother]

Its not that I don't like them, it is that I was to hear arguments regarding my concerns lol. Sell me on Andersen and Elliott! They are guaranteed starters!

The league counts shots against, so that could in theory balance the "Loss" category

You're doing my job for me!
In a 14 team league where 2G are started, full starers always have huge value. The full starters on poorer teams maybe even mores than the good team timeshares when you could saves. I don't see SA as one of your categories (and I like saves better as a stat, but that's besides the point) however you can't win goalies categories if you are struggling to get starts.
As you were also saying, it always seems like there is a point or two in the year when goalies drop like flies. If you have the depth, then you can cover your own ass, and take advantage of the huge sellers market it creates.
By being the full starters, they may have points where they have a bad two weeks, but they will keep getting the net back and pick their value right back up. You can't have enough of that when you are looking to be a contending team.

[J0e Th0rnton]

You're doing my job for me!
In a 14 team league where 2G are started, full starers always have huge value. The full starters on poorer teams maybe even mores than the good team timeshares when you could saves. I don't see SA as one of your categories (and I like saves better as a stat, but that's besides the point) however you can't win goalies categories if you are struggling to get starts.
As you were also saying, it always seems like there is a point or two in the year when goalies drop like flies. If you have the depth, then you can cover your own ass, and take advantage of the huge sellers market it creates.
By being the full starters, they may have points where they have a bad two weeks, but they will keep getting the net back and pick their value right back up. You can't have enough of that when you are looking to be a contending team.

It was Saves. My bad. 6 goalie categories. W, L, sv%, GAA, saves and SO

So do you agree both 1st round picks should be goalies? I have two 2nd round picks as well and I suspect if I take 2, it will start a chain reaction making everyone use their 1st rounder on goalies.

[Eskimo Brother]

It was Saves. My bad. 6 goalie categories. W, L, sv%, GAA, saves and SO

So do you agree both 1st round picks should be goalies? I have two 2nd round picks as well and I suspect if I take 2, it will start a chain reaction making everyone use their 1st rounder on goalies.

If I am going into this draft, I want 2 of my first four picks to be goalies there, and at minimum one from the first tier and one from the second (if not both from the first tier). Now draft strategies do change depending on who falls (See Oilers 2016), so you have to be ready and able to adapt if one or two big skaters that you covet, end up falling to your spots.

[J0e Th0rnton]

If I am going into this draft, I want 2 of my first four picks to be goalies there, and at minimum one from the first tier and one from the second (if not both from the first tier). Now draft strategies do change depending on who falls (See Oilers 2016), so you have to be ready and able to adapt if one or two big skaters that you covet, end up falling to your spots.

Oh I get that In practice. But the likelihood is most skaters leftover from expansion will be close and interchangeable between 1st and 3rd rounds. A cluster of 55-65 point guys, with some young guns flying under the radar. Defenseman left will be much the same. Lots of 38-48 point guys. Defenseman are almost secondary in this league, despite 3 slots, a lot of guy roll with only 2

I am stacked with McDavid/Tavares/Seguin and expect Draisaitl to be a stud too, although Ehlers is close. With Talbot in goal, I feel a bit weaker there

[Eskimo Brother]

Oh I get that In practice. But the likelihood is most skaters leftover from expansion will be close and interchangeable between 1st and 3rd rounds. A cluster of 55-65 point guys, with some young guns flying under the radar. Defenseman left will be much the same. Lots of 38-48 point guys. Defenseman are almost secondary in this league, despite 3 slots, a lot of guy roll with only 2

I am stacked with McDavid/Tavares/Seguin and expect Draisaitl to be a stud too, although Ehlers is close. With Talbot in goal, I feel a bit weaker there

Fair enough. In that case I see nothing wrong with pegging both your first rounders as goalies, but if a F drops, I think there should be enough goalies into the second round that you will be okay grabbing the F.