The Crystal Ball on Lucic

[Chico Resch]

Him with McDavid - I think it's safe to assume he gets a bump in points.

Last year, he was 20/35/55 with a whopping 244 hits.

I think it's virtually a lock that his point tally increases - but by how much?

Is it reasonable to expect a 10 point jump?

His career high is 62

[Slickricks]

I would suspect if he plays with McDavid all year he will reach 60 realistically and 65 -68 if they have a great year together

[Sulla]

Over/Under is 65 for me...

[Rylant]

Over/Under is 65 for me...

Why do people still think that the player you are playing with is the difference between you being amazing, and you being mediocre? Milan Lucic... 28 years old... Has never scored 65 points in his career. Last year, he played mostly with Kopitar, Carter, and Toffoli. Three pretty decent players. And Lucic had 55 points in 81 games. LA also scored like 35 goals more than the Oilers did last year.

Put me down for a cool thousand dollars, on the under of 65 for Lucic this year...

Rylant

[Sulla]

I'll go Rob Brown and Warren Young as exhibit 1a and 1b as to what can happen when you line up next to a superstar...

i like Kopitar more in real life than fantasy but lining up next to McDavid raises the bar and it's not like other players haven't hit career highs later in their career when the stars align (Foligno being a recent example I can think of). Personally I don't think it will catapult him miles above it but by a few points? I'd comfortably predict that

[Chico Resch]

Thanks for the input lads!

[Rylant]

I'll go Rob Brown and Warren Young as exhibit 1a and 1b as to what can happen when you line up next to a superstar...

i like Kopitar more in real life than fantasy but lining up next to McDavid raises the bar and it's not like other players haven't hit career highs later in their career when the stars align (Foligno being a recent example I can think of). Personally I don't think it will catapult him miles above it but by a few points? I'd comfortably predict that

You had to go back 30 years to pull those 2 examples to support your argument? That's grasping... I am not convinced.

Remember when Tavares went down with a serious injury a couple of years ago? Everyone said that Okposo was going to suffer because of it; after all, Okposo was a guy who was supposedly made better by playing along side Tavares. Guess what? Okposo was fine... Remember when everyone was talking about how much better Kessel was going to be, moving from horrible Toronto to Pittsburgh to play on lines with Superstars Malkin and Crosby? Guess what... He wasn't.

Yes, your teammates can make a SLIGHT difference. Yes, there are once-in-a-generation combos, where the stars align, and you find two players who are so perfect for each other, that they change each other's lives. Combos like Kurri/Gretzky, or Oates/Hull; you will not be adding McDavid/Lucic to that list.

Lucic is going from a good team, to a horrible one. His production is going to suffer because of that. McDavid is not going to add 20 percent production to Lucic's game. I know it sounds like I am being silly, but I would literally bet every single penny I could gather on the under; I am talking my house... My car... My retirement savings... Everything, if somebody seriously offered Lucic's over/under at 65 points.

Rylant

[Sulla]

There are others but was an easy one for good players on bad teams and that Pens team was one of the worst at the time and had a generational superstar on it.

if you want to use the Tavares scenario why not use Moulson? in all seriousness Lucic has played with good players I think McDavid is the best hence the uptick (and I'm hardly predicting him doubling his output lol)

anyone who watched how Kessel plays and how Sid and Malkin played could see it wasn't a natural fit but this one does seem more like it. Trying to fit a net front guy with a superstar works a lot better than trying to fit two superstars together and there are lots of combos that work well because of this.

Agree that Lucic and McDavid aren't going to go down in Kurri and Gretzky terms but again I go back to predicting three points more than his career best and I think this is a scenario where he could do that

i look forward to reviewing this at the end of next season... I may give you your house back lol

[The Black Panther]

You had to go back 30 years to pull those 2 examples to support your argument? That's grasping... I am not convinced.

Remember when Tavares went down with a serious injury a couple of years ago? Everyone said that Okposo was going to suffer because of it; after all, Okposo was a guy who was supposedly made better by playing along side Tavares. Guess what? Okposo was fine... Remember when everyone was talking about how much better Kessel was going to be, moving from horrible Toronto to Pittsburgh to play on lines with Superstars Malkin and Crosby? Guess what... He wasn't.

Yes, your teammates can make a SLIGHT difference. Yes, there are once-in-a-generation combos, where the stars align, and you find two players who are so perfect for each other, that they change each other's lives. Combos like Kurri/Gretzky, or Oates/Hull; you will not be adding McDavid/Lucic to that list.

Lucic is going from a good team, to a horrible one. His production is going to suffer because of that. McDavid is not going to add 20 percent production to Lucic's game. I know it sounds like I am being silly, but I would literally bet every single penny I could gather on the under; I am talking my house... My car... My retirement savings... Everything, if somebody seriously offered Lucic's over/under at 65 points.

Rylant

Wow excellent post.

[J0e Th0rnton]

I honestly think Lucic will mesh better with RNH or Draisaitl as his C. Particularly Draisaitl.

Trying to picture Lucic keeping up with McDavid's speed and it is not happening, then I try picturing other scenarios and comparing how Lucic just could not play well with Kopitar, so they stuck him with Carter and voila, it worked much better.

Maroon/McDavid/Eberle was producing well in the last stretch, so why break it up? Go with a top line of Lucic/RNH/Draisaitl or somesuch and spread the love.

[Axeman33]

I think he will help Lucic's game some. I wont say he will bring him up to a 70 pt player or anything, but I do think 60-65 pts is reasonable.

And Rylant, the Oilers have been a "horrible team" but the optimism is there that they are finally turning the corner, with more moves to come in the off-season. Even though their place in the standings didnt show it, they actually improved last year from the year before. They are on the upswing. The won't be "horrible" much longer. Watch.

[Boogeypop]

Lucic is going from a good team, to a horrible one. His production is going to suffer because of that. McDavid is not going to add 20 percent production to Lucic's game. I know it sounds like I am being silly, but I would literally bet every single penny I could gather on the under; I am talking my house... My car... My retirement savings... Everything, if somebody seriously offered Lucic's over/under at 65 points.
Rylant

I don't want to pick a fight or anything but that is obtuse. To go that far to think that a good player can't become great in the right circumstances. It's a 10 point jump from last year to hit 65. Bouncing around the lines from Carter/Toffoli to Kopitar (roughly 64 pt pace with him and in a defensive system) didn't give him a full year with the best C on the team.

If you want a more recent example, you can look at Stamkos and St-Louis. Stamkos is a good (closer to great) player but was made great with the help of a linemate. He went from a 90+ to a 70 pt player after he left.

I obviously realize Lucic is no Stamkos but in the right conditions 11 pts to hit the over to 65 isn't crazy either. Lucic's grit might be the perfect compliment to a player like McDavid. He's hit over 60 twice in his career and raked in the PIMs and has been "calming" over the years so he's on the ice more often. The one thing that may make it so that he doesn't hit it is because he's not going to play against EDM (5 pts in 5 games).

Of course this all depends on whether he even plays and gels with McDavid. I'm not saying he will hit the over but I wouldn't stake everything I owned on it.

[Godin]

There are others but was an easy one for good players on bad teams and that Pens team was one of the worst at the time and had a generational superstar on it.

if you want to use the Tavares scenario why not use Moulson? in all seriousness Lucic has played with good players I think McDavid is the best hence the uptick (and I'm hardly predicting him doubling his output lol)

anyone who watched how Kessel plays and how Sid and Malkin played could see it wasn't a natural fit but this one does seem more like it. Trying to fit a net front guy with a superstar works a lot better than trying to fit two superstars together and there are lots of combos that work well because of this.

Agree that Lucic and McDavid aren't going to go down in Kurri and Gretzky terms but again I go back to predicting three points more than his career best and I think this is a scenario where he could do that

i look forward to reviewing this at the end of next season... I may give you your house back lol

Moulson and Parenteau are great examples. I'm quite sure Tavares had something to do with the 9TH rounders achieving 69 and 67 points respectfully playing with Tavares in 2011-12. I'm also quite sure that the undrafted Kunitz had his best years due to playing with Crosby.

Now, i'm not saying that Lucic will approach 70 points but, 55-65 points is highly likely though. I know Rylant mentioned that Okposo did fine when Tavares was injured but, unlike Moulson, Parenteau and Kunitz, he was a 7th overall pick. Also, LA isn't exactly a high scoring team as the Oilers are being built to be, so who know?

[FinnishFlash]

I think you'll see him around 55. I just think what you see with Lucic is what you get. 55 points and a ton of hits and stupid penalties.

[Rehdaun]

I think you'll see him around 55. I just think what you see with Lucic is what you get. 55 points and a ton of hits and stupid penalties.

I agree with this 100%. I don't think it matters who Lucic plays with. He will produce about the same rate.