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Thread: Why the Pens are keeping Fleury

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    Default Why the Pens are keeping Fleury

    This just dawned on me. I haven't seen this reported anywhere, or suggested by anyone, so if it has, forgive me...

    All the talk this offseason has been that the Penguins have to trade Fleury cause they'll lose him in the expansion draft. Now, the reports are that they won't trade him. Most assume that is just as insurance for the young Murray, and they'll deal Fleury at the trade deadline.

    But let's take a walk to the generalfanager expansion tool and see which defenceman the Penguins will be protecting...
    Letang, Maatta and either Cole, Pouliot, Dumoulin or Lovejoy. Daley is a UFA after next season so he doesn't need to be protected.

    That means they are guaranteed to lose one of Cole, Pouliot, Dumoulin or Lovejoy. The Pens are in win-now mode, so they aren't interested in losing any of these guys. Obviously Fleury is more valuable than those guys, but the trade value for goalies is really low. What could they get for him - a few 2nd and 3rd round picks? Something tells me they'd rather not lose one of those dmen and not get the draft picks. But if Fleury is available in the expansion draft, he definitely gets taken and they don't lose a defenceman.
    So if they're gonna lose Fleury one way or another (either via trade or the draft), might as well lose him in the draft so they don't lose anyone else.

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    Default Re: Why the Pens are keeping Fleury

    The Pens will certainly protect Dumoulin, they probably won't resign Lovejoy this offseason, and I don't think they'll be terribly fussed about losing Cole.

    It's an interesting theory, but I think you're overthinking it. The Pens are keeping Fleury for the same reason the Bolts are fine keeping Bishop. It's exactly what you said. They're in win now mode, and if they aren't getting a return that helps them win now, it's more beneficial to their team to have two #1 goalies next season than Murray and Zatkoff.

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    Default Re: Why the Pens are keeping Fleury

    Quote Originally Posted by rataylor22 View Post
    The Pens will certainly protect Dumoulin, they probably won't resign Lovejoy this offseason, and I don't think they'll be terribly fussed about losing Cole.

    It's an interesting theory, but I think you're overthinking it. The Pens are keeping Fleury for the same reason the Bolts are fine keeping Bishop. It's exactly what you said. They're in win now mode, and if they aren't getting a return that helps them win now, it's more beneficial to their team to have two #1 goalies next season than Murray and Zatkoff.
    I don't think they'd be so happy about losing Poultiot.
    And I don't think it's the same situation as Tampa. First of all, Bishop is a UFA after next season. Also, they are still shopping him, so they DO want to trade him. The latest rumors have him going to Dallas, and they actually make a lot of sense. Also, the Pens IDEALLY want Murray, so they don't need Fleury around anyways. The Bolts IDEALLY want bishop, but it messes with their cap too much to have him around when they've got Vasilevskiy. So if they figure out a way to make it work with the cap, they would probably rather lose Vas in the draft and keep Bishop (not that I think that will happen, but without the cap issue, that's what they would want to do).

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    Default Re: Why the Pens are keeping Fleury

    Everything you are talking about is a year away, they just won the cup with this roster and let's face it, it's not the goalies that won them the cup. Fleury has proven he is a serviceable regular season tender, Murray has not. They will take another run at a cup with the duo, damn what they lose at the expansion draft.

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    Default Re: Why the Pens are keeping Fleury

    Murray has 13 regular season games played for his career. That’s the main reason. Everyone saw how he started becoming an average goalie near the end of the playoff run. He was either tiring out or teams were figuring him out. You don’t go into a season with a goalie who’s played 780minutes of regular season NHL hockey.
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    Default Re: Why the Pens are keeping Fleury

    I think it makes more sense for Pitt to KEEP Fleury. Murray showed cracks in the play offs (especially the final round when teams have had more of a chance to scout him - how often does that happen when they play limited minutes) and though a lot of fantasy GMs are happy to anoint him the starter I'm not convinced. He has a fantastic track record but doing it at the NHL level is another step (and one I think he can hit but maybe not as soon as next season) as we saw with Price etc.

    Losing Fleury with the expansion draft for nothind would be annoying to the Pens and if Murray shows he can carry the load all year then I fully expect Fleury to move at the deadline/just before it.

    As Dobber references in todays ramblings though Pitts window is now and getting rid of Fleury now, when in win now mode, may scupper a year or two as Murray transitions and that's why I think its the more logical decision

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    Default Re: Why the Pens are keeping Fleury

    If they are keeping Fleury, that tells you that they aren't ready/confident to hand over the reigns to Murray yet, plain and simple.
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    Default Re: Why the Pens are keeping Fleury

    I thought the reason for trading Fleury was that they would have to expose Murray, not Fleury in the expansion draft, due to Fleury's NMC. Or is Fleury's deal one of those ones that doesn't make him a "forced protect" in the draft?
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    Default Re: Why the Pens are keeping Fleury

    Quote Originally Posted by forsbergfan View Post
    I don't think they'd be so happy about losing Poultiot.
    And I don't think it's the same situation as Tampa. First of all, Bishop is a UFA after next season. Also, they are still shopping him, so they DO want to trade him. The latest rumors have him going to Dallas, and they actually make a lot of sense. Also, the Pens IDEALLY want Murray, so they don't need Fleury around anyways. The Bolts IDEALLY want bishop, but it messes with their cap too much to have him around when they've got Vasilevskiy. So if they figure out a way to make it work with the cap, they would probably rather lose Vas in the draft and keep Bishop (not that I think that will happen, but without the cap issue, that's what they would want to do).
    I'll be shocked if Pouliot is even on the roster by the start of training camp. The Pens are tired of his act and his regressing development. He doesn't have the work ethic required to be an everyday NHLer. I don't think they'd have much of an issue losing him in an expansion draft.

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    Quote Originally Posted by metaldude26 View Post
    I thought the reason for trading Fleury was that they would have to expose Murray, not Fleury in the expansion draft, due to Fleury's NMC. Or is Fleury's deal one of those ones that doesn't make him a "forced protect" in the draft?
    This is correct, but we still don't really know the full rules. Fleury has a limited NTC, with a NMC. So does he have to be protected? Who knows. Also can players waive? That's been speculated as well. Still lots were unsure about.

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    Default Re: Why the Pens are keeping Fleury

    If they are keeping Fleury, that tells you that they aren't ready/confident to hand over the reins to Murray yet, plain and simple.
    There is another factor. Remember how great the Canadiens looked in the playoffs when their #1 goaltender went down? That's because they didn't get there. They have a situation for this season where they can carry a guy who they know can handle the load during the regular season, and the guy they think is their goalie of the future, who played great in the playoffs.

    This covers them in case of an injury to the goalie they don't trade, and also in case Murray isn't quite as good as he seemed in the playoffs.

    Additionally, they may get to the point where the goalie market improves with some injuries, but that's a minor issue when you are trying to repeat.
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    Default Re: Why the Pens are keeping Fleury

    The Pens have, by far, the worst cap situation in the league. They are the only team that is actually over the cap. With the goalie market as it is, Fleury will remain a Pen as long as Rutherford can tolerate the squeeze.

    https://www.capfriendly.com/

    I could see Buffalo make a play for MAF. They have been very active and goaltending is an obvious weakness with only Lehner. I like the kid but I think he is on his last ticket, if he doesnt take the job over, the club should look at acquiring MAF/Bishop.

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    Default Re: Why the Pens are keeping Fleury

    Quote Originally Posted by Doug Glatt View Post
    The Pens have, by far, the worst cap situation in the league. They are the only team that is actually over the cap. With the goalie market as it is, Fleury will remain a Pen as long as Rutherford can tolerate the squeeze.

    https://www.capfriendly.com/

    I could see Buffalo make a play for MAF. They have been very active and goaltending is an obvious weakness with only Lehner. I like the kid but I think he is on his last ticket, if he doesnt take the job over, the club should look at acquiring MAF/Bishop.
    Great point here. If the Pens had the cap space I think they'd love to roll with both MAF and Murray for another season and then make a trade or very tough call on which one to protect. Given that they are actually over the cap I can see them trying to move MAF and taking their chances with Murray next season. If you have another great season and take another run at the Cup then end up losing one of the assets at trade deadline (if you go with Murray) or in expansion that might just be the price to pay to compete (and worth more than the 2nd rounder you'd get for MAF this offseason).

    I think the Penguins will first try to get under the cap by moving one of Hageline/Hornqvist(modified-ntc) or Kunitz but if they can't do it that way they may have to consider moving MAF.
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    Default Re: Why the Pens are keeping Fleury

    Quote Originally Posted by Doug Glatt View Post
    The Pens have, by far, the worst cap situation in the league. They are the only team that is actually over the cap.
    You shouldn't count Dupuis, teams can be 10% over the cap in the offseason and he will be on LTIR just when the season starts. So they actually have around $2 million of cap space, but they have a full roster and don't need to make any moves.

    They will btw not be able to protect Murray over Fleury. If Fleury is still a Penguin next summer, he must be protected.

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    Default Re: Why the Pens are keeping Fleury

    Quote Originally Posted by Dennis4022 View Post
    You shouldn't count Dupuis, teams can be 10% over the cap in the offseason and he will be on LTIR just when the season starts. So they actually have around $2 million of cap space, but they have a full roster and don't need to make any moves.

    They will btw not be able to protect Murray over Fleury. If Fleury is still a Penguin next summer, he must be protected.
    This rule still hasn't totally been clarified, and it's not really safe to make this assumption at this point.

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    Default Re: Why the Pens are keeping Fleury

    Quote Originally Posted by Dennis4022 View Post
    You shouldn't count Dupuis, teams can be 10% over the cap in the offseason and he will be on LTIR just when the season starts. So they actually have around $2 million of cap space, but they have a full roster and don't need to make any moves.

    They will btw not be able to protect Murray over Fleury. If Fleury is still a Penguin next summer, he must be protected.
    He who wins the Cup, wears the tight cap.

    The situation looks much better after this year when Dupuis and Kunitz will be off the cap. That's 7.6M right there. Then with Fleury moved, thats a really large amount of cap and makes the Pens players in free agency next year (if they want to be).

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