Options for multi-cat contribution plus 30+ points?

[RizzeeDizzee]

That's the subject of this week's cage match, which pits Alec Martinez vs. Erik Johnson: http://www.dobberhockey.com/hockey-h...-erik-johnson/

What do you think - can Martinez parlay his 31 point season into further gains? Can Johnson rebound as he's done in the past? Which one would you rather own for 2016-17 and beyond? If you own either player, what do you expect from them, and did the data I dug up make you more or less optimistic about them?

Let's hear all your thoughts.

[Eskimo Brother]

I agree with your conclusion that neither is probably worth the price in drafts. I think of the two, I have Johnson slightly above Martinez in a multi cat league, just because of the surer production in the secondary categories.

[Big Baby]

As a former owner of both defensemen in my keeper league, I will say that both are equally frustrating and yet both have shown that in the right situation, they can excel.

Of the two I would go with E Johnosn. He's plays a ton of mins and has more of the tools required to be a top dman, size, speed and a powerful shot.

It was an off year in Colorado for anyone not named Duchene. A bounce back for EJ is due.

[RizzeeDizzee]

I agree with your conclusion that neither is probably worth the price in drafts. I think of the two, I have Johnson slightly above Martinez in a multi cat league, just because of the surer production in the secondary categories.

Yes - Johnson does hold an edge in multi-cat league, although something I didn't touch upon in the article was that his reputation as a multi-cat guy is pretty cemented already, which in turn can cause his cost to be higher because he's in the forefront of poolies' mind to an extent that he'll be picked earlier than deserved in relation to his true value.

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As a former owner of both defensemen in my keeper league, I will say that both are equally frustrating and yet both have shown that in the right situation, they can excel.

Of the two I would go with E Johnosn. He's plays a ton of mins and has more of the tools required to be a top dman, size, speed and a powerful shot.

It was an off year in Colorado for anyone not named Duchene. A bounce back for EJ is due.

EJ certainly has bounced back previously, but it really does appear that his role changed significantly in 2014. It's harder to see him hitting 35 point without the PP time it appears he so desperately needs to produce.

[Eskimo Brother]

Yes - Johnson does hold an edge in multi-cat league, although something I didn't touch upon in the article was that his reputation as a multi-cat guy is pretty cemented already, which in turn can cause his cost to be higher because he's in the forefront of poolies' mind to an extent that he'll be picked earlier than deserved in relation to his true value.

Fair point, and perceived value may cause Martinez to be the better play. If I own EJ, then I'm definitely interested in a EJ for Matinez + type deal. It was a good cage match though, because I'm still a little at a loss as to which may be the better production vs. value player.

The other thing that caught me off guard is that Martinez is 28. I had in my head that he was 24 or 25. I think the late draft age and few years before reaching the NHL full time are part of the reason he is seen as having more room to improve.

[RizzeeDizzee]

Fair point, and perceived value may cause Martinez to be the better play. If I own EJ, then I'm definitely interested in a EJ for Matinez + type deal. It was a good cage match though, because I'm still a little at a loss as to which may be the better production vs. value player.

The other thing that caught me off guard is that Martinez is 28. I had in my head that he was 24 or 25. I think the late draft age and few years before reaching the NHL full time are part of the reason he is seen as having more room to improve.

I'm glad this one seemed to be an even match. Cage Matches can be tricky, since I have to pick guys who - on the surface - seem like they'd be well matched, then also hope that they end up being well matched once the data comes into play. This one seemed to work out on both fronts.

I agree that an EJ for AM + trade would be well advised. The issue is that folks saw Martinez hitting 30+ for the first time and might give him artificially high cost, missing the fact that he'd scored at a 31 point pace in each of his two previous seasons and, as you noted, that's he's 28 years old already. In the end, that's why I felt neither one was a great target for a one year league. Chances are a GM in your league will be impatient and pick them too early.

[Eskimo Brother]

I'm glad this one seemed to be an even match. Cage Matches can be tricky, since I have to pick guys who - on the surface - seem like they'd be well matched, then also hope that they end up being well matched once the data comes into play. This one seemed to work out on both fronts.

I agree that an EJ for AM + trade would be well advised. The issue is that folks saw Martinez hitting 30+ for the first time and might give him artificially high cost, missing the fact that he'd scored at a 31 point pace in each of his two previous seasons and, as you noted, that's he's 28 years old already. In the end, that's why I felt neither one was a great target for a one year league. Chances are a GM in your league will be impatient and pick them too early.

I can definitely see how that wouldn't be an easy task to try and gauge a fair matchup for both perception and analysis. I can't say I have had either one on my team in the last couple of years (except for maybe a week of Martinez as a waiver wire fill in, in a shallow league), and that I don't really see it as likely that I own either of them in the next couple of years. There are definitely better deals at that point in the draft.

[horrorfan]

I had Martinez on my RHRS team last year, originally as a short-term FA pickup but ended up with him most of the season. Given we use hits and blocks, he was a perfect depth option, especially for his balance (most nights it appeared you got something, even if it was just hits and blocks). However, I worry about him getting 13 PPP with only 31 total points. With Doughty and Muzzin ahead of him, a slight less productive PP when he's on the ice could reduce his production dramatically. Sure, as you mentioned, Rick, that his pace was around that in previous years but he didn't get a full season played. Perhaps last year is the best people can expect, and could still make people hesitant on picking him up at that production.

That said, points made here are valid, especially with regards to EJ's perceived value (though his SOG gives him some real value there). I do wonder at what point EJ's perceived value eventually drops to his real value? In the RHRS, he was drafted 172nd overall. I guess being one year removed of his 39 point season did that, but figure he'll drop much further next year. Him and Martinez could be close next year, or who knows, EJ may pull off what he did in 13/14 again (thinking that may be the ceiling though). Questions indeed.

Drafting, even though Martinez was better last year, as mentioned it's possible he could still be had later than EJ since I don't think his perceived value will have shot up much given his history and situation on the Kings. I know I'll be looking right at that PPP number - that could be the difference between him being a solid depth option again (league size dependent of course) or a free agent.

It's definitely two guys who people in medium/deeper leagues will have questions about for the upcoming season, and is a good cage match. Thanks.