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Thread: Malkin for Defenseman

  1. #1
    Samfolds's Avatar
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    Default Malkin for Defenseman

    Hey guys,

    Second league in sig. We count our best 12F / 6D / 2G at the end of the year (total points scored in the season). There is no waiver wire (so you can only acquire players through trades or draft). D's goal count for 2 points.

    I have Malkin and I'm wondering what his value in my league is... Here is a quick analysis:
    1. Hurt at least 20 games/year
    2. 9.5M salary
    3. Assuming ppg or slightly better, he is a 60-70 pts player

    I have approximated that overall, players need to have a 12 point-per-million ratio to win the league.. Given that I can't run to the waiver to acquire cheap options to balance out Malkin, I feel that his ~7 points-per-million hurt my team...

    There is a trade offer on the table which looks like this :
    Malkin for David Savard + 13th overall UFA pick (players with >20 games played in the NHL). With this pick, I could *potentially* lend:
    • A defenseman like Rielly, Krug with worst case being McDonagh or Trouba.
    • A young 45-50 pts forward or an older 55 pts forward
    • Possibly a goalie a la Mike Smith, Mason/Nieuvirth or *maybe* Cam Talbot

    Based on the above and the fact that my D corp is TERRIBLE, I am strongly considering it. Savard is cheap and should put up 40 points and the UFA pick would net a sizable amount of points as well... Am I crazy?

    EDIT: If that changes anything, I own the first UFA pick and the first prospect pick which will likely be Gostisbehere and Matthews!
    16 team, dynasty cap league (real salary), Points ONLY (W=2+SO=3)
    Count best 12 F, 6 D, 2 G || 19-20 Cap = 94M

    F: Point, Matthews, DeBrincat, Kessel, Malkin, Meier, Gourde, Hinostroza, Toffoli, Batherson, Jankowski, Prokhorkin, Nick Ritchie, Maroon, Thompson, Kravtsov, Sikura, Lunderstrom
    D: Letang, Krug, Gostisbehere, DeAngelo, Manson, Persson, Djoos
    G: Bobrovsky, Fleury, Merzlikins, Subban, Gustavsson, Sandstrom, Gillies, Husso

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    Default Re: Malkin for Defenseman

    If you could land Rielly there, then I would be strongly considering it. He should be getting close to 10 points per million next season. And from a D slot, I expect that is pretty valuable.

    Edit: Just read that D goals count for 2. I'm liking that deal more and more now.
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    Default Re: Malkin for Defenseman

    Unfortunately, EB is sending you down the wrong path here.

    You should get way more for Malkin.

    First, and don't take this the wrong way, but you are overvaluing Savard significantly. Second, you need to consider the player you are dropping in this deal since you would be acquiring two players. Savard + Rielly isn't enough for Malkin despite his large salary.

    Look to deal with a team with cap space, that GM will value Malkin in a way that Favors you.

    Crosby has the same salary basically and is susceptible to missing 10-15 games per year, would you deal him for that return? Probably not. Hold Malkin, you can get way more.

  4. #4
    Samfolds's Avatar
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    Default Re: Malkin for Defenseman

    Quote Originally Posted by Canadiens2099 View Post
    Unfortunately, EB is sending you down the wrong path here.

    You should get way more for Malkin.

    First, and don't take this the wrong way, but you are overvaluing Savard significantly. Second, you need to consider the player you are dropping in this deal since you would be acquiring two players. Savard + Rielly isn't enough for Malkin despite his large salary.

    Look to deal with a team with cap space, that GM will value Malkin in a way that Favors you.

    Crosby has the same salary basically and is susceptible to missing 10-15 games per year, would you deal him for that return? Probably not. Hold Malkin, you can get way more.
    For your first point... Don't worry, I like having feedback and won't take anything personal... What should I expect from Savard? Apparently he played hurt for most of the year and still put up 29 fantasy points in 65 games... That's damn close to a 40 points pace and his shooting % was a little lower than usual. Plus, I think Tortorella loves him (which might mean more ice time?). I'd be curious to hear your thougths on why I am overvaluing him significantly .

    Second point, no player limit so I am not dropping anybody!

    For the Crosby part, it would possibly take more to move him (I value him higher than Malkin as his injuries woes might be behind him).

    People in my league are all close to the cap, meaning that they have a hard time accepting that salary and not giving any in return. The team with the offer on the table is by far the one with the most cap space and he might even have problems with Malkin in his lineup depending on some RFA signings...

    Also, one point I did not mention in the OP is that as my lineup stands now, I will likely need to shed salary after the draft. I have around 2M available now, but Strome will sign a RFA deal and I will draft 5 prospects + 2 "UFAs". Gunarsson and the other bad D are prime candidates to leave, but that would not leave me much breathing room to sign those "UFAs".

    Does that change your mind at all or do you still think the value is not good enough?

    Thanks (to both of you) for your time on this!
    16 team, dynasty cap league (real salary), Points ONLY (W=2+SO=3)
    Count best 12 F, 6 D, 2 G || 19-20 Cap = 94M

    F: Point, Matthews, DeBrincat, Kessel, Malkin, Meier, Gourde, Hinostroza, Toffoli, Batherson, Jankowski, Prokhorkin, Nick Ritchie, Maroon, Thompson, Kravtsov, Sikura, Lunderstrom
    D: Letang, Krug, Gostisbehere, DeAngelo, Manson, Persson, Djoos
    G: Bobrovsky, Fleury, Merzlikins, Subban, Gustavsson, Sandstrom, Gillies, Husso

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    Default Re: Malkin for Defenseman

    Savard is nowhere near the return you would need for Malkin. Forget about Savard.

    M Rielly on the other hand would be a solid pickup. I agree that Malkin is always injured, which hurts your team over the course of the year. Rielly would be the only D, you mentioned, that I would consider acquiring as a replacement for Malkin.

    Getting Rielly and Matthews would be sweet. try that.
    6 Team no limit Keeper. Cap league $100m
    Points only G/A=1, Hattrick = +3, Wins = 2, SO = +3, OTL/SOL = +1
    12 Forwards, 6 Defense, 2 Goalies, 6 Reserve (any position)

    Forwards
    Crosby $8.7
    Stone $9.5
    Svechnikov $7.7
    Debrincat $6.4
    Hall $6
    Meier $6
    Guentzel $6
    Ehlers $6
    Hertl $5.6
    Konecny $5.5
    Palat $5.3
    JT Miller $5.2
    Garland $4.9
    Kakko $.9
    Laff $.9


    Defense
    Josi $9
    Burns $8
    Letang $7.2
    Nurse $5.6
    Werenski $5
    Sergachev $4.8
    Fox $.9

    Goalies
    Shesterkin $5.6
    Ullmark $5
    Hart $3.9
    Blackwood $2.8


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    Default Re: Malkin for Defenseman

    Quote Originally Posted by Samfolds View Post
    For your first point... Don't worry, I like having feedback and won't take anything personal... What should I expect from Savard? Apparently he played hurt for most of the year and still put up 29 fantasy points in 65 games... That's damn close to a 40 points pace and his shooting % was a little lower than usual. Plus, I think Tortorella loves him (which might mean more ice time?). I'd be curious to hear your thougths on why I am overvaluing him significantly .

    Second point, no player limit so I am not dropping anybody!

    For the Crosby part, it would possibly take more to move him (I value him higher than Malkin as his injuries woes might be behind him).

    People in my league are all close to the cap, meaning that they have a hard time accepting that salary and not giving any in return. The team with the offer on the table is by far the one with the most cap space and he might even have problems with Malkin in his lineup depending on some RFA signings...

    Also, one point I did not mention in the OP is that as my lineup stands now, I will likely need to shed salary after the draft. I have around 2M available now, but Strome will sign a RFA deal and I will draft 5 prospects + 2 "UFAs". Gunarsson and the other bad D are prime candidates to leave, but that would not leave me much breathing room to sign those "UFAs".

    Does that change your mind at all or do you still think the value is not good enough?

    Thanks (to both of you) for your time on this!
    There are a lot of considerations here, which makes it a tough choice, and that is what s leading to the difference in opinions here. I think Canadiens does have a good point, in that you can probably pull more out of the deal than that, however I stand by that there is some great value in the deal. Reilly would be the main part of the first deal, and could be bringing you something along the lines of 60 of your fantasy points this year (12G x2 + 36A). Savrd is another solid add on a good contract, and it sounds to me that in your league, cap space is the most valuable asset.

    The more you can pull out of it, the better, since there is no player limit. I like Savard to bounce back as well. So see what you can add to the deal, post it back here and we will see where we go from there.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Big Baby View Post
    Savard is nowhere near the return you would need for Malkin. Forget about Savard.

    M Rielly on the other hand would be a solid pickup. I agree that Malkin is always injured, which hurts your team over the course of the year. Rielly would be the only D, you mentioned, that I would consider acquiring as a replacement for Malkin.

    Getting Rielly and Matthews would be sweet. try that.
    I think Samfolds was saying that he already owns the Matthews pick, so Rielly + Matthews for Malkin is not a possible return. They are both great pieces to be adding if possible though.
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    Default Re: Malkin for Defenseman

    You need to start the price A LOT higher on Malkin. Quite frankly I see no reason to trade him now. That'd be bad management and is selling low on one of the best players in the world. I think you gotta wait it out.

    He'll have time to get his body right all offseason, and is a safe bet to rattle off a lot of points in October/November. Sell him then, when people forget how often he's hurt and remember how awesome of a player he is.

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    Default Re: Malkin for Defenseman

    Quote Originally Posted by rtstr View Post
    You need to start the price A LOT higher on Malkin. Quite frankly I see no reason to trade him now. That'd be bad management and is selling low on one of the best players in the world. I think you gotta wait it out.

    He'll have time to get his body right all offseason, and is a safe bet to rattle off a lot of points in October/November. Sell him then, when people forget how often he's hurt and remember how awesome of a player he is.
    may the fantasy hockey gods bless you for helping to bring reason to this thread

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    Default Re: Malkin for Defenseman

    I mentioned to the guy that I was looking for much more and he did not get back to me. I also kicked the tires with some other teams, but most mention that his salary is too high and they are only slightly interested, if at all...

    In the mean time, here's a trade that just went down in my league (it shows how bad people want to shed salary I think...)

    Ovechkin + 72nd overall pick for Calvert + 5th overall pick + 50th pick

    Picks are for prospects only (i.e <20 games played in the NHL).

    Guess I'll be keeping Malkin :P.
    16 team, dynasty cap league (real salary), Points ONLY (W=2+SO=3)
    Count best 12 F, 6 D, 2 G || 19-20 Cap = 94M

    F: Point, Matthews, DeBrincat, Kessel, Malkin, Meier, Gourde, Hinostroza, Toffoli, Batherson, Jankowski, Prokhorkin, Nick Ritchie, Maroon, Thompson, Kravtsov, Sikura, Lunderstrom
    D: Letang, Krug, Gostisbehere, DeAngelo, Manson, Persson, Djoos
    G: Bobrovsky, Fleury, Merzlikins, Subban, Gustavsson, Sandstrom, Gillies, Husso

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    Default Re: Malkin for Defenseman

    Quote Originally Posted by Samfolds View Post
    I mentioned to the guy that I was looking for much more and he did not get back to me. I also kicked the tires with some other teams, but most mention that his salary is too high and they are only slightly interested, if at all...

    In the mean time, here's a trade that just went down in my league (it shows how bad people want to shed salary I think...)

    Ovechkin + 72nd overall pick for Calvert + 5th overall pick + 50th pick

    Picks are for prospects only (i.e <20 games played in the NHL).

    Guess I'll be keeping Malkin :P.
    If trades like that are the norm for your league, there's something wrong with your setup. Under no circumstances should a GM feel good about trading Ovechkin for Calvert and 5th overall.

    Definitely keep Malkin if that's the way the market is.

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