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Thread: Filip Forsberg owners - you probably should read this (Schwartz owners too)

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    Default Filip Forsberg owners - you probably should read this (Schwartz owners too)

    http://www.dobberhockey.com/hockey-h...ilip-forsberg/

    When doing a Cage Match, it's not unusual for me to be surprised with what I find out about one player. But to be legitimately surprised about both is rare, and is also exactly what happened here. Like many, I'd seen what Forsberg had done in his first two seasons and figured 70+ points would be a cakewalk for 2016-17, and a mere stepping stone to point per game production by as early as 2017-18. But after what I unearthed in this Cage Match, I think it's time to pump the brakes big time on Forsberg, who might even be a sell high. Meanwhile, I knew that Schwartz didn't get the true fantasy credit he deserved; however, even I was surprised about not only how good he already is, but how much apparent room to improve he has.

    What do all of you think, especially those of you who own either or both player? Do you think I'm seeing things with too much of a glass half empty mentality with respect to Forsberg? If so, then how do you see his path toward further improvement? And do you think Schwartz is only scratching the surface, or could he be someone who, for whatever reason, simply is unable to rise to the next level?

    Let's hear everyone's thoughts on this key Cage Match.
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    Default Re: Filip Forsberg owners - you probably should read this (Schwartz owners too)

    I went into this as a huge Filip Forsberg (and Nashville fan in general) thinking that Forsberg was going to blow Schwartz out of the water, however you really opened my eyes to the other side of it.
    The main reason I would disagree, is actually one of the reasons that you think he may have peaked, and that is Mike Ribeiro. Without Ribeiro, his OZ% would surely head down to a more realistic 60% zone, however that is manageable, especially when 1) he is so dominant off the rush, and 2) he doesn't have to drag Ribeiro around. Watching Nashville games, there is a clear driver (FF) and a clear anchor on that line (MR). I agree, I'm not sure that Forsberg has that 85 point level, but I do think he can get up to a 70-75 point, kind of pace in the next two seasons.

    The Schwartz section of it I agreed with 100% he does not get enough credit, has lots of room to grow, and should be bought as soon as possible.

    As always, thanks for the hard work on those cage matches, they are an eye opening read every time.
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    Default Re: Filip Forsberg owners - you probably should read this (Schwartz owners too)

    Quote Originally Posted by Eskimo Brother View Post
    I went into this as a huge Filip Forsberg (and Nashville fan in general) thinking that Forsberg was going to blow Schwartz out of the water, however you really opened my eyes to the other side of it.
    The main reason I would disagree, is actually one of the reasons that you think he may have peaked, and that is Mike Ribeiro. Without Ribeiro, his OZ% would surely head down to a more realistic 60% zone, however that is manageable, especially when 1) he is so dominant off the rush, and 2) he doesn't have to drag Ribeiro around. Watching Nashville games, there is a clear driver (FF) and a clear anchor on that line (MR). I agree, I'm not sure that Forsberg has that 85 point level, but I do think he can get up to a 70-75 point, kind of pace in the next two seasons.

    The Schwartz section of it I agreed with 100% he does not get enough credit, has lots of room to grow, and should be bought as soon as possible.

    As always, thanks for the hard work on those cage matches, they are an eye opening read every time.
    Thanks for the kind words, and thoughtful points.

    You make a very interesting point in particular about Ribeiro. While logic would suggest that if Forsberg might be separated from Ribeiro then the outcome would be a net negative, especially since it would mean his OZ% would fall considerably, the truth might be that - as you suggested - it would be a net positive, as Forsberg would be able to unleash other aspects of his game and, with that, more than compensate for the less favorable OZ%. That might be the key to him indeed surging over the 70 point level.

    Let's just hope folks in our leagues don't grow wise to Schwartz. Poolies should use his injury and deceptively low point total from 2015-16 to grab him before next season, which, health permitting, should see him almost certainly break the 70 point barrier.
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    Default Re: Filip Forsberg owners - you probably should read this (Schwartz owners too)

    Quote Originally Posted by RizzeeDizzee View Post
    Thanks for the kind words, and thoughtful points.

    You make a very interesting point in particular about Ribeiro. While logic would suggest that if Forsberg might be separated from Ribeiro then the outcome would be a net negative, especially since it would mean his OZ% would fall considerably, the truth might be that - as you suggested - it would be a net positive, as Forsberg would be able to unleash other aspects of his game and, with that, more than compensate for the less favorable OZ%. That might be the key to him indeed surging over the 70 point level.

    Let's just hope folks in our leagues don't grow wise to Schwartz. Poolies should use his injury and deceptively low point total from 2015-16 to grab him before next season, which, health permitting, should see him almost certainly break the 70 point barrier.
    Agree on both your points there. From watching every minute of Nashville in the playoffs so far. Ribeiro has been a huge negative next season, and I'm hoping the top 6 next year will be something along the lines of Ry Jo, Neal, Forsberg, Jarnkrok, Fiala, (FA add?), C. Smith. If so I think we're looking at very good things in general from that forward core.

    I am definitely going to be making a push for him. This just helps shore up the thought that he is one of the best guys to be targeting.
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    Default Re: Filip Forsberg owners - you probably should read this (Schwartz owners too)

    I've noticed Forsberg being used on the Johansen line in these playoffs from time to time, so that's something to keep an eye on for next season to see if that becomes permanent at some point.

    I personally think Forsberg will crack 70 points before Schwartz does (if that ever happens for him).
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    Default Re: Filip Forsberg owners - you probably should read this (Schwartz owners too)

    Great Match this week! I've long been a proponent of Schwartz and while this season's production by Forsberg had me questioning my early conclusion of him as a 65 point guy, your column may have swung me back to that notion.

    I think both are very strong players, but Forsberg has all the spotlight after this season and Schwartz obviously does not due to injury and often secondary offensive opportunities.

    Inspired by a previous Cage Match, I wrote an article last offseason about the importance of Schwartz lining up with Tarasenko in order for both players to reach new heights.. If they are 'connected at the hip' I can see 70+ from Schwartz on a continual basis and Tank would have a shot at that elusive 80 mark.

    Seeing Jaden's SHTOI drop is key in this as well.. He's a great PK'er but you pay other guys to do that spade work and he's a player who should be getting close to 3:00 of PP time a game. Goals are at a premium... can't be wasting too much of an offensive player's energy jammed in their own zone down a man.

    With one (or both) of Brouwer and Backes leaving, that PK time may sneak up again, but one would hope the PP time rises as well and he starts to play around 19-19:30 a game.

    I'll be looking to (re)buy low on Schwartz this offseason thanks in part to this article reminding me how strong he is despite his deployment.
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    Default Re: Filip Forsberg owners - you probably should read this (Schwartz owners too)

    Quote Originally Posted by Dikoi View Post
    I personally think Forsberg will crack 70 points before Schwartz does (if that ever happens for him).
    Just curious why you think this when considering that Schwartz's 63 points in 75 games in 2014-15 put him at a 69 point pace, which is essentially 70, and was done without the influence of unsustainable luck and with still room to grow in terms of ice time and PPPts? Is it that he won't be able to stay healthy enough? If not, then just curious why you feel this way, since maybe you've seized upon something I missed in my analysis.
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    Default Re: Filip Forsberg owners - you probably should read this (Schwartz owners too)

    Quote Originally Posted by Crazy Joe Davola View Post
    Great Match this week! I've long been a proponent of Schwartz and while this season's production by Forsberg had me questioning my early conclusion of him as a 65 point guy, your column may have swung me back to that notion.

    I think both are very strong players, but Forsberg has all the spotlight after this season and Schwartz obviously does not due to injury and often secondary offensive opportunities.

    Inspired by a previous Cage Match, I wrote an article last offseason about the importance of Schwartz lining up with Tarasenko in order for both players to reach new heights.. If they are 'connected at the hip' I can see 70+ from Schwartz on a continual basis and Tank would have a shot at that elusive 80 mark.

    Seeing Jaden's SHTOI drop is key in this as well.. He's a great PK'er but you pay other guys to do that spade work and he's a player who should be getting close to 3:00 of PP time a game. Goals are at a premium... can't be wasting too much of an offensive player's energy jammed in their own zone down a man.

    With one (or both) of Brouwer and Backes leaving, that PK time may sneak up again, but one would hope the PP time rises as well and he starts to play around 19-19:30 a game.

    I'll be looking to (re)buy low on Schwartz this offseason thanks in part to this article reminding me how strong he is despite his deployment.
    Great thoughts as usual CJD - I think if I ever retire from Cage Match duty you'd be the natural replacement.

    I think you're right that Schwartz may see his SH Ice Time creep back up, but with likely even greater gains in PPTOI. And in the grand scheme of things 30 seconds more of SHTOI is a small price to pay for 30-45 more precious PPTOI seconds. The beauty of Schwartz also is he has essentially no downside, other than his track record of poor health. But as you noted, that should help work toward keeping his price down this offseason. And if Schwartz can gel with Tarasenko, then that could indeed be the key to both reaching new heights.
    DobberHockey Senior Writer (columnist since 2012)
    Click here to read my weekly "Roos Lets Loose" columns, going live every Wednesday morning and consisting of a rotating schedule of a "forum buzz" column, a fantasy hockey mailbag, a tournament/poll, and an edition of Goldipucks and the Three Skaters: https://dobberhockey.com/category/ho...key-rick-roos/

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    Default Re: Filip Forsberg owners - you probably should read this (Schwartz owners too)

    Quote Originally Posted by Eskimo Brother View Post
    I went into this as a huge Filip Forsberg (and Nashville fan in general) thinking that Forsberg was going to blow Schwartz out of the water, however you really opened my eyes to the other side of it.
    The main reason I would disagree, is actually one of the reasons that you think he may have peaked, and that is Mike Ribeiro. Without Ribeiro, his OZ% would surely head down to a more realistic 60% zone, however that is manageable, especially when 1) he is so dominant off the rush, and 2) he doesn't have to drag Ribeiro around. Watching Nashville games, there is a clear driver (FF) and a clear anchor on that line (MR). I agree, I'm not sure that Forsberg has that 85 point level, but I do think he can get up to a 70-75 point, kind of pace in the next two seasons.

    The Schwartz section of it I agreed with 100% he does not get enough credit, has lots of room to grow, and should be bought as soon as possible.

    As always, thanks for the hard work on those cage matches, they are an eye opening read every time.
    I agree with all 3 parts here! Well said EB!
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    C- Crosby, Barzal, Bennett, Schmaltz, Novak
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    Default Re: Filip Forsberg owners - you probably should read this (Schwartz owners too)

    Quote Originally Posted by RizzeeDizzee View Post
    Just curious why you think this when considering that Schwartz's 63 points in 75 games in 2014-15 put him at a 69 point pace, which is essentially 70, and was done without the influence of unsustainable luck and with still room to grow in terms of ice time and PPPts? Is it that he won't be able to stay healthy enough? If not, then just curious why you feel this way, since maybe you've seized upon something I missed in my analysis.
    Health is a concern for me regarding Schwartz, so I think that's the main reason. I think Schwartz is a solid 60-65 point player, but 70 would have to happen in a career year in my opinion.
    Yahoo! 1 year league, 9 teams, Points only [G (3pts), A (2pts), PPP (1pt), Hits (0.1pt) *** W (4pts), Goals Against (-2pts), SV (0.2pt), SO (3pms)
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    Default Re: Filip Forsberg owners - you probably should read this (Schwartz owners too)

    Quote Originally Posted by RizzeeDizzee View Post
    Great thoughts as usual CJD - I think if I ever retire from Cage Match duty you'd be the natural replacement.

    I think you're right that Schwartz may see his SH Ice Time creep back up, but with likely even greater gains in PPTOI. And in the grand scheme of things 30 seconds more of SHTOI is a small price to pay for 30-45 more precious PPTOI seconds. The beauty of Schwartz also is he has essentially no downside, other than his track record of poor health. But as you noted, that should help work toward keeping his price down this offseason. And if Schwartz can gel with Tarasenko, then that could indeed be the key to both reaching new heights.
    Thanks Rizz.. we can't have you retiring anytime soon though.. love these matches you put together!

    Also... precious precious PPTOI.. PPP's are so vital to a player reaching the upper echelon of scorers.
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    Default Re: Filip Forsberg owners - you probably should read this (Schwartz owners too)

    Quote Originally Posted by Dikoi View Post
    Health is a concern for me regarding Schwartz, so I think that's the main reason. I think Schwartz is a solid 60-65 point player, but 70 would have to happen in a career year in my opinion.
    I believe that Schwartz was also moved off of Tank's line in late March/early April (a.k.a. the Fantasy Playoffs) and his production fell off. I was consistently benching him there at the end.

    (On the other hand, Forsberg was a Superstar for me in the fantasy playoffs.)

    Maybe not something to get overly excited about, but I'll be keeping Forsberg over him.


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    Default Re: Filip Forsberg owners - you probably should read this (Schwartz owners too)

    Quote Originally Posted by Instant Karma View Post
    I believe that Schwartz was also moved off of Tank's line in late March/early April (a.k.a. the Fantasy Playoffs) and his production fell off. I was consistently benching him there at the end.
    That definitely does raise a good point, over line mates, and who is more of a driver vs. a complimentary line mate. I feel like Schwartz has the ability to be that main piece of a line, but he hasn't shown it consistently yet, so his production will be loosely tied to that of Tank.
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    Default Re: Filip Forsberg owners - you probably should read this (Schwartz owners too)

    Quote Originally Posted by Instant Karma View Post
    I believe that Schwartz was also moved off of Tank's line in late March/early April (a.k.a. the Fantasy Playoffs) and his production fell off. I was consistently benching him there at the end.

    (On the other hand, Forsberg was a Superstar for me in the fantasy playoffs.)

    Maybe not something to get overly excited about, but I'll be keeping Forsberg over him.
    I think both these guys have great upside and that we have yet to see them hit their full stride since they barely have 2 and 4 full seasons under their belts for Forsberg and Schwartz respectively. As you said, I would definitely keep Forsberg here as I do not see him regressing.

    Nonetheless, there's some very interesting points in the article RD!
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    Default Re: Filip Forsberg owners - you probably should read this (Schwartz owners too)

    I love it when RizzeeDizzee's numbers and analysis match up with my gut. I feel like Schwartz with a healthy season would have put this one to bed this year. Not to say Forsberg is not a really good own too. I'd be OK with either but I'm taking Schwartz ahead of Forsberg.
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