Who to draft??

[olafson1393]

Lifetime Keeper League - 12 teams - team #2 in sig. Pretty large rosters with small active roster per week. 1 goalie, 3 defensemen, 11 forwards. Thinking about trying to add to the Varlamov/Mrazek tandem through the draft with a mid to late pick. Picks as of today are 5, 17, 22, 24, 35, 56, 57. Mid range rebuild at the moment, looking at being able to seriously compete 2-23 years down the road. Posted my top 30 overall in an earlier thread to get an idea of league depth (400-450).

Right now this is my list:

Connor Hellebuyck	1993
Martin Jones	1990
Andrei Vasilevsky	1994
Linus Ullmark	1993
Matt Murray	1994
Ilya Samsonov	1997
Louis Domingue	1992
Malcolm Subban	1993
Mackenzie Blackwood	1996
Carter Hart	1998

I've also mentioned in other threads that I came close to taking Vasilevsky last year with the pick that I took Mrazek with, I'm not sure if that was a blessing in disguise or if Mrazek's just been given the opportunity sooner, either way its worked out well for me.

My rankings are primarily based on potential and the length of time they are from reaching that potential in a full time starter roll. There are definitely other names that could be included somewhere (Pickard is one that comes to mind now) but when trying to gauge maximum potential and years to development its tough to know where a guy like that slots in as well. Is there any point to even betting on a guy like Hart? I don't remember the last time a newly drafted goalie went in our draft - I've got to imagine he's got at least 2 years before even seeing backup time in the show.

Thoughts on making some adjustments? Any guys you would pass up and try to grab late in the draft? My projection is that Hellebyuck goes sometime in our 2nd or 3rd round (17-27). A guy like Ullmark probably wont even go this year based on my guesses. I think Vas could be a 4th rounder, could Jones be the best bet here?

[havanablast21]

For me, I'd target those goalies in this order.

Martin Jones 1990
Andrei Vasilevsky 1994
Connor Hellebuyck 1993
Matt Murray 1994
Louis Domingue 1992
Ilya Samsonov 1997
Linus Ullmark 1993
Malcolm Subban 1993
Mackenzie Blackwood 1996
Carter Hart 1998

[franklin]

My top 5:

Martin Jones 1990
Connor Hellebuyck 1993
Andrei Vasilevsky 1994
Matt Murray 1994
Louis Domingue 1992

[Eskimo Brother]

My top 5:

Martin Jones 1990
Connor Hellebuyck 1993
Andrei Vasilevsky 1994
Matt Murray 1994
Louis Domingue 1992

This would be my top 5 as well, and then the bottom 5 in the same order as havana. Hope the consensus helps you out here. You really can't go wrong with any of the top 4 though. I think that would be the first tier. After that you have a tier of Domingue, Samsonov. With the other four being down in the third tier of your set there.

If I were to slot in Pickard, it would be right at the top of my tier 2.

[olafson1393]

I know we've gone into a lot of detail on the Connor Hellebuyck thread, with a lot of guys predicting 30-40 starts next season, then owning the crease in 17-18... but how about Vas, its not like he's only being held back by Pavalec right now, Bishop is a little more of a beast in the 1 spot, not quite the same level of leapfrogging going on there. What does his future look like as far as a clear cut fantasy starter?

[Eskimo Brother]

There is going to have to be a blockbuster deal (him or Bish) or a Carey Price like injury to Bishop if he were to have any real relevant amount of starts before the end of Bishop's contract (UFA July 2017). After that, you will have TBay commit to Bishop with a large contract, and trade Vas, or let Bishop walk/shop his rights.

So by the beginning of the 17-18 season he should be a starter, but I wouldn't expect much before that.

[olafson1393]

1 Year is reasonable if you're expecting to have a top 10-15 goalie down the road. its not often that you're able to pick those guys up, at least in this league, after they've already got that role and are earning you those wins. A guy like Jones will be a rare chance this year to acquire one through the draft who is dependable on a week by week basis

[franklin]

There is going to have to be a blockbuster deal (him or Bish) or a Carey Price like injury to Bishop if he were to have any real relevant amount of starts before the end of Bishop's contract (UFA July 2017). After that, you will have TBay commit to Bishop with a large contract, and trade Vas, or let Bishop walk/shop his rights.

So by the beginning of the 17-18 season he should be a starter, but I wouldn't expect much before that.

I agree. But I would also add that the possibility of an expansion could help G like Vasilevsky or Murray. If the NHL give the green light to an expansion, teams will have to make trades. You can't loose Vasilevsky or Murray to an expansion team for nothing.

[Goldendelicious]

Don't be surprised to see Tampa move Vas this year. They already tried to move him in 2014 to get #1 pick at the draft from Florida.

[Goldendelicious]

I would rank the goalies as follows for you desire:

1. Jones
2. Hellebucyk
3. Murray
4. Vasilevskiy
5. Subban
6. Samsonov
7. Ullmark
8. Hart
9. Domingue
10. Blackwood

Hart is a wild card for me. Mainly because it depends where he gets drafted. Quite frankly, I don't think he slips past Dallas in the NHL this summer (they've had a lot of issues the last couple years with goalies and only have 1 viable prospect).

As always the case with goalies, its all about timing and opportunity. Some of these guys are about 5-8 years away and some need major movement (either themselves or the current starter) to be relevant.

4 other guys I definitely would not ignore: Brossoit (EDM), Demko (VAN), Nedeljkovic (CAR), Dylan Wells (2016 eligible)

[olafson1393]

Any chance Wells is picked ahead of Hart? I remember hearing in the fall that Hart was all the rage going into the season, but that seems to have somewhat faded, If I'm remembering correctly, the year end rankings had Hart ranked 2nd?

[Goldendelicious]

I honestly haven't see the rankings, nor do I really care for what all the various bodies rank prospects. Wells has played some stellar hockey this season but sounds like he'll be the 3rd off the board. I think Hart is the only one with a shot to get snagged in the 1st round. Doubt Wells jumps him.

Hard to understand why Hart would fall because his in-season play was fine. In the WHL:
1st in wins
4th in save% (amongst goalies who played at least half a season)
2nd in GAA (guy ahead of him played 36 less games)
8th in total saves

[franklin]

Any chance Wells is picked ahead of Hart? I remember hearing in the fall that Hart was all the rage going into the season, but that seems to have somewhat faded, If I'm remembering correctly, the year end rankings had Hart ranked 2nd?

Gustavsson and Fitzpatrick could go ahead of Wells and I could see a team going with Wells over both of them. It's close and Hart is in the discussion as well. 3-4 goalies could go in the 2nd round.

[Hockey6723]

Jones is the easy decision here. Helly, Murray, Vas afterwards. Vas is stuck behind a beast, needs a big trade to become relevant.